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Travis Hoium

Travis Hoium

Sep 8, 2026

5:21
There could be new opportunities for Howmet and other rivals if CPP is brought in-house to kinda offset any lost business that they might have at GE.
5:32
Yeah.
5:32
And really the way to think about this is the value of vertical integration versus the value of modularization or b- having a horizontal business model.
5:40
So right now GE is saying, "Hey, we, we value being able to pull this in-house and be able to have, have this supplier only supply us, maybe make our next generation products a little bit better," like Lou said.
5:52
But over time, these typically...
5:53
these things typically go back and forth.
5:55
You spin off your, one of your suppliers, you know.
10:28
Is this just kinda table stakes for all businesses these days where they have to deal with this in like a, "Yeah, we'll pay the ransom," or "We'll, you know, try to shore up our systems?" Or, I-I-I'm trying to figure out like how investors or how businesses can operate in a way where maybe like once every couple of years you might be the victim of a hack that can bring your entire company to a grinding halt.
8:02
What did you see? Maybe the 18% is just another blip, or was there actually something that might justify why the market's thinking this?
8:10
Well, the justification at least short term is that their guidance was relatively weak.
8:14
So if we look at the results, and now On always reports in Swiss francs, which makes their results really confusing for investors because you look at revenue was up 13.5% in the quarter.
8:25
That doesn't sound all that impressive, but on a constant currency basis, it was actually 21.6%.
8:31
So it's always important to look at those constant currency numbers because most of their sales are in the US, so a weak dollar is going to make those sales look smaller when you look through the lens of a Swiss franc.
8:42
But what investors are really focused on right now is that their guidance for the rest of the year was down a little bit, so they're expecting growth in the low 20% range instead of I believe it was 23% plus that they said last quarter.
8:56
That's telling you that maybe the consumer's a little bit weaker, maybe they're losing a little bit of market share if we're having some sort of recovery with Nike.
12:11
modelOr is there gonna be some point where, like, that channel starts to kinda limit growth and it will have to push into those other channels more?
11:37
How can this company kinda grapple with these challenges going forward and, you know, perhaps get back to not being an eighty percent down for its long-term shareholders?
11:45
shareholders?I, I don't know that I have a great answer for this, and I think this has been the, the frustrating thing watching Unity as a business.
11:53
I mean, this is a piece of software that, that I started to learn a little bit, you know, a handful of years ago when I was in the world of VR.
11:59
This was the go-to thing.
12:00
You had to use Unity.
12:01
It was, it was the best thing to use.
12:03
That paradigm obviously didn't work out the way I think they hoped.
14:35
Travis, what did you see in the Celsius report?
16:37
Was this just some sort of quarterly blip, or is this a, a kind of a trend in decelerating revenue and earnings?
16:43
Well, this is what happens when a company goes from growth mode to, "We're now a mature company," and so the expectations are different, and the question's gonna be, what do investors expect from the company, and then what are the investors that are gonna be excited about that? I mean, you know, Spotify grew their total monthly users by 12% year over year.
17:02
This is a company that has 777 million monthly active users.
17:07
That is a massive number.
17:09
They're also continued to grow their premium revenue 15%, but this is not gonna be a company that's gonna grow, you know, 20-plus percent year over year like it maybe was a handful of years ago.
17:20
You're gonna be more focused on things like margins and free cash flow.
17:24
That's not necessarily as exciting.
20:33
It's still a good investable stock, but the valuation might need adjustment from here.
7:38
Travis, you've already [laughs] made your, uh, your view pretty clear here, so lay out your case.
7:43
Well, this is, A- AI I think is, is very confusing for investors right now because there is a ton of tailwinds, and th- th- that is completely undeniable.
7:54
You look at what's going on with, you know, particularly memory is really hot right now.
7:57
Those prices are going crazy.
7:58
Margins are going up.
7:59
But you have to look historically in what's sustainable and what's not sustainable.
8:03
So I, I actually pulled all 11 of these companies.

6 MINS LATER

14:29
Uh, Adidas is a great business, just not the, not as exciting of a growth story as ON to my, to me.
9:59
In light of that narrative, I mean, how possible do you think it is that this, this is true, Travis?
10:04
It's very possible that it's true, and, uh, we gotta think about this strategically first.
10:09
If you are Anthropic, you're dealing with a competitive market in the model space.
10:14
We know that they were the hottest thing in the market in early 2026.
10:18
It seems like even just over the past few weeks they've kind of been overtaken again by Codex from OpenAI.
10:25
So in this kind of back-and-forth market, how do you build a durable business that's actually going to be worth the however many hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars these companies think they're gonna IPO for, uh, at some point in the near future? And one of the ways that you're gonna do that is you're going to get distribution and data within your ecosystem.
10:48
Atlassian has distribution.

9 MINS LATER

19:27
What was a Berkshire deal that stood out to you?
2:51
Based on what we've seen so far, kind of these news stories and the shifting narrative that we're seeing with OpenAI, what would you need to see from OpenAI that would make you interested in the stock should it go public in say like the next twelve months? And Travis, you're the fill-in guest here, so you get to go first this week.
3:08
I have got to see a real business model, and I think that's always been the challenge for me with OpenAI is how do you make money? If you look back historically on some of these phenomenal companies, so Alphabet, Microsoft, they were profitable before they ever went public.
3:21
It's really a relatively new phenomenon that you have the Ubers of the world that are still burning through money a decade or more after they began, still trying to, you know, build that mass of customers.
3:32
But there is a real benefit for being the aggregator, the, the ultimate winner.
3:36
I'm not sure that's the case with artificial intelligence, and so if you don't have a business model to start with, you're not gonna beat Google and Amazon and all these other companies in advertising.
3:46
So what are you gonna do? Are you gonna be subscriptions? Are you gonna follow Anthropic into this enterprise market? That was the thing.
3:52
It's a little bit unclear.

10 MINS LATER

13:28
It's definitely we're making progress, but I don't know if we should really be, uh, expecting a payoff anytime soon.

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