Yeah.

He actually said he was shocked that they had not done modeling.

It's not too hard to do.

If the government spent less money, would that take inflation down? And I think that, um, our Reserve Bank governor should also be a little bit, I mean, I know that she's appointed by the government, she is independent, she should be turning around and saying, "Hey, this is the impact of your spending to inflation."

Mm.

And I can tell you, there was one I was with last week and they're really concerned and we should all be concerned as a country because new home sales form part of the new build target that we have in Australia to help with all the migrants that are coming in, and that's very concerning.

Um, so it's not just them saying it.

I talk to a lot of builders around the country, and they're seeing l- a far less people coming into their sites, looking at their, you know-

In some cases, it's pretty bizarre, isn't it?

It is bizarre, but I sort of do get people getting emotional, John, on the day because we're talking about, you know, the difference of $200,000 or $300,000 if you buy well and if you don't have crazy competitive bidding from other bidders there.

And people will go to incredible lengths... to try and slow other people bidding to have the best chance of buying the property and buying it at the lowest price.

So over the years, John, I've seen some things.

I think I was talking to you off air where there was one situation.

I think it was in Alexandria around 15 years ago.

There was around... 25 people that had come to the auction.

that's

In some cases, it's pretty bizarre, isn't it?

It is bizarre, but I sort of do get people getting emotional, John, on the day because we're talking about, you know, the difference of $200,000 or $300,000 if you buy well and if you don't have crazy competitive bidding from other bidders there.

And people will go to incredible lengths... to try and slow other people bidding to have the best chance of buying the property and buying it at the lowest price.

So over the years, John, I've seen some things.

I think I was talking to you off air where there was one situation.

I think it was in Alexandria around 15 years There was around 25 people that had come to the auction.

I think about 10 of them were registered.

Yeah.

There was a lot more interest than we've seen in recent weeks.

There was.

I think, um, the fact that the weather has been nicer and there's also been a l- of acceptance happening in certain parts of the real estate economy in Australia, Sydney being one of them.

Because you gotta remember, James, Sydney and Melbourne started the downturn more than other parts of Australia.

So vendors have had now, you know, close to nine months to accept this is the new norm, and vendors that are accepting realistic figures are selling.

But James, I'm not getting carried away.

I might be talking to you next week or the week after, and I'm saying to you, it's back to 30%.

If that happens, we could be back to where we were a few weeks ago.

There was a lot more interest than we've seen in recent weeks.

There was.

I think the fact that the weather has been nicer and there's also been a lot of acceptance happening in certain parts of the real estate economy in Australia, Sydney being one of them.

Because you've got to remember, James, Sydney and Melbourne started the downturn.

more than other parts of Australia.

So vendors have had now, you know, close to nine months to accept this is the new norm.

And vendors are accepting realistic figures are selling.

If that happens, we could be back to where we were a few weeks ago.

What do you make of it?

Look, James, there's no question about it.

The market has had a big shock and the budget has been the big, big one.

I mean, we had rates going up late last year and that sort of slowed Sydney and Melbourne.

But it's all been about the budget.

That's caused a lot of the issues.

But, James, I don't have the same view because a lot of the commentary that you're hearing about the biggest falls is, they're amortizing what's happened in a three to four month period right so it's saying you know five percent down in a quarter it's not right to simply say you know four times five to twenty percent drop because real estate behavior doesn't operate that way it doesn't happen in a linear way like it doesn't happen in the share market i mean you don't sit in the shares and say oh cottonwealth bank went down one percent that means by the end of the you know the 12 months it's going to be down 12 percent right But there's no question about it.

That is a real factor in all of this.

What do you make of it?

Look, James, there's no question about it.

The market has had a big shock and the budget has been the big, big one.

I mean, we had rates going up late last year and that sort of slowed Sydney and Melbourne, but it's all been about the budget.

That's caused a lot of the issues.

But, James, I don't have the same view because a lot of the commentary that you're hearing about the biggest falls is... they're amortising what's happened in a three- to four-month period, right? So if you're saying, you know, 5% down in a quarter, it's not right to simply say, you know, four times five is a 20% drop because real estate behaviour doesn't operate that way, doesn't happen in a linear way, like it doesn't happen in the share market.

I mean, you don't sit in the shares and say, oh, Commonwealth Bank went down 1%.

That is a real factor in all of this.

They seem pretty upbeat, despite the media telling you the market's tanked.

What's going on? Well, you've got to remember, Phil, the ones that we were speaking to have been impacted, but they're still doing deals because the ones that were here were the better agents.

So there's 50,000 or so real estate agents in Australia.

REB top 100s got the pick of the best.

And what they're doing is moving on.

It is what it is.

What I've noticed, there's two cohorts of agents in Australia at the moment.

And that concerns me and it worries me a

What's going

on? Well, you've got to remember, Phil, the ones that we were speaking to have been impacted, but they're still doing deals because the ones that were here were the better agents.

So there's 50,000 or so real estate agents in Australia.

already beat top 100s, got the pick of the best, and what they're doing is moving on.

It is what it is.

What I've noticed, there's two cohorts of agents in Australia at the moment.

There are those that are saying, what's happened? And there are those that are saying, it is what it is, let's get on with it.

Phil.

What's going

on? Well, you've got to remember, Phil, the ones that we were speaking to have been impacted, but they're still doing deals because the ones that were here were the better agents.

So there's 50,000 or so real estate agents in Australia.

already beat top 100s, got the pick of the best, and what they're doing is moving on.

It is what it is.

What I've noticed, there's two cohorts of agents in Australia at the moment.

There are those that are saying, what's happened? And there are those that are saying, it is what it is, let's get on with it.

Phil.

But the issue is everyone's valuations have now fallen dramatically.

Yes.

So if you look at the 1st of July, 27, you don't have to get the valuation done on that day.

You can get it done afterwards.

You can actually get it done when you sell the property, but it will be postdated to what was the value on the 1st of July.

And at the rate that we're going, Shari, property prices have been dropping significantly.

And we've still got some time to go.

What do you think about this?

What does this, as an example, look like? Are there fewer people turning up? Uh, are there not as many people bidding? Are there more people observing? What does it actually look like on the ground?

Okay, so just for your audience, the auctions that take place in Australia are in Sydney and Melbourne.

Overall, in Australia, the method of sale that's used is private treaty, which makes up about eighty-five percent.

But in Sydney and Melbourne, it's fifty percent.

So what are we seeing, James? There is a drop in volume.

It is significant.

We're talking about auction volumes have dropped forty percent.

I mean, for young people, it's very, very hard for them to be renting and also saving for a house, and then suddenly the tax settings change and rents are gonna go up again.

What does this, as an example, look like? Are there fewer people turning up? Are there not as many people bidding? Are there more people observing? What does it actually look like on the ground?

Okay, so just for your audience, The auctions that take place in Australia are in Sydney and Melbourne.

Overall, in Australia, the method of sale that's used is private treaty, which makes up about 85%.

But in Sydney and Melbourne, it's 50%.

So what are we seeing, James? There is a drop in volume.

It is significant.

We're talking about auction volumes have dropped 40%.

five years i mean for young people it's very very hard for them to be renting and also saving for a house and then suddenly the tax settings change and rents are going to go up again

Yep.

And now we're seeing rents go up.

They've already started going up.

There shouldn't be any surprise.

Less rentals, more demand for them.

And think about this for a moment.

He talks about intergenerational equality.

As you say, the critical point here is that if you're trying to look after first-home buyers, they're the ones who are renting now trying to save a deposit.

The prime minister's just kicked the wind out of the entire market and even younger people trying to get their first home have been spooked.

yeah ben this is i mean this is quite extraordinary how treasury was able to come up with a system a business plan if you like a strategy that somehow got every price point to drop except the lower price point the exact price point that we wanted first home buyers to come into and all of a sudden we've read it all i mean i saw this um weeks before that this is the hardest time i've seen it for a first home buyer to buy a property because a lot of the buyers that are buying at the higher end or the medium are now buying the lower price point and then in addition to that we have no shortage of those buyers because five percent deposit scheme that's been widely spread out they're even giving it get ready for this ben it's not even means tested you can get the five percent deposit scheme if you're earning a million dollars a year right so there's plenty of people with that and unfortunately it's not getting better it's getting worse for first home buyers the exact thing the government said They were trying to help.

They've made it the opposite.

And he hasn't got the result because it hasn't worked.

Yeah, so Ben, this is a classic scenario that at any one time, only a very small number of people are actually looking to buy a home.

First, you need to have a deposit.

Secondly, you need to actually have the ability to pay back the loan.

And thirdly, you need to want to do it.

The Prime Minister's just kicked the wind out of the entire market and even younger people trying to get their first home have been spooked.

Yeah, Ben, this is, I mean, this is quite extraordinary.

How Treasury was able to come up with a system, a business plan, if you like, a strategy that somehow got every price point to drop except the lower price point, the exact price point that we wanted first home buyers to come into.

And all of a sudden, we've read it all.

I mean, I saw this weeks before that this is the hardest time I've seen it for a first home buyer to buy a property.

because a lot of the buyers that are buying the higher end or the medium are now buying the lower price point.

And, Ben, in addition to that, we have no shortage of those buyers because 5% deposit scheme, that's been widely spread out.

And he hasn't got the result because it hasn't worked.

Is that correct?

Look, Shari, there's three price points in real estate.

High end, medium, low end.

High has fallen, medium has fallen and the lower point has not really fallen at all and in some instances has gone up because of that 5% deposit scheme.

This is actually totally against what the government wanted to do.

What they wanted to do is to help first home buyers.

They in fact haven't done that.

Yeah, so, Tom, should Wellington be a warning sign to Australia about government overreach?

That's the view of property market commentator Tom Panos, though he's not convinced buyers will stay away for long.

Yeah, particularly n- for the first home buyers.

They're, they're, they're very nervous because they keep hearing, "Hey, if I buy a property for a million dollars," and it might've been $1.1, say, a few months ago, that's cheap, like good value.

But what if that property now sells, um, in three months for $900,000? And I think a lot of buyers are scared about that, and that's what probably stops them from actually going into the market.

So your view is, is that there's plenty of people out there who still want to buy, but right now they're just too nervous to go ahead with any purchase decisions?

I've gotta say, in recent weeks, I've started seeing some of these buyers pull the trigger, but there's still a large group of people that are thinking to themselves, "This is what we wanted, more affordability." But they're still concerned because generally speaking, they have a fear that things could get worse.

However, we must use previous history because it is the best indicator, and previous history over four decades of corrections, and there's been about eight, is generally speaking, Nick, property corrections last for 18 months at most, and then they start moving again.

I have a view that we're probably going into that period next year, and I don't think we're gonna have a collapse.

so we can give people a better idea.

Absolutely.

You've got the intellectual knowledge and the intellectual property that I wanna share with the consumers, and 75% of my audience is in fact buyers and sellers of real estate.

25% are real estate agents, and I do a lot of work on television and radio for News Corporation in Australia, which is Sky News.

So if it's possible, Peter, I really would love to ask you the things that have been coming in my DMs, the messages that have been coming from people.

So I'd like to ask you to start off with, you know, firstly, where's your office at?

They believe there still are opportunities in regards to values of money and the potential of capital gains.

Listen, and I can tell you, you're spot on.

And you're seeing that firsthand, Tom.

Well, I mean, Shari, to give you an idea, on Saturdays I run an auction company and not only are we having properties not selling, we're having people not register.

So what they're basically saying is we know that property prices have dropped, we know that there's bargains out there, but we actually don't have no confidence to bid now because we're concerned if we do and buy a bargain, it's going to be even cheaper next month.

That's the concern at the moment.

And negative equity is an issue.

There's a group of people that have been seduced to buying early with a small deposit.

Now, some of these people, they're the most vulnerable cohort.

And

It's a big gap between 50 and 80%, isn't it?

It certainly is.

It certainly is.

And I don't want to make something that is bad look even worse.

And that is that we have to remember, James, the number that's recorded on the weekends is a clearance rate.

That's called the preliminary clearance rate, right? and those great two estate agents you had on there, they are one of thousands of agents that have got to report figures in on the weekend.

Now, a lot of these figures, if a property is not sold, often an agent doesn't report it with a view that, hey, let's see what actually happens.

Okay, so from what you are seeing and what you saw at the weekend and what you're hearing from all the different people you speak to in the industry, are we fair to say that the investors in one fell swoop with the tax changes have been scared off? And if so, let me just ask, where are all the first homebuyers taking their place? Or is that not occurring in the way the government believes it is? okay

Are prices plummeting? It's got to be a buyer's market, doesn't it?

Okay, so Chris, we've got to make it very clear.

There's not one real estate market.

There is multiple markets, and they're both based on geography and price.

So when you look at geography, you can turn around and say Sydney, Melbourne, they are in a bad state.

Brisbane is now heading that way as well.

Perth, your viewers saw on the screen, those numbers look atrocious.

Do they go down because people get cold feet?

How many auctions are on tomorrow? What are the-- What's the market like?

Ben, I just-- I've actually just come back from Europe and I wish I'd stayed there because there's naught happening, to be honest with you.

Any auctions that are going on are being withdrawn.

Auction volumes are falling off the cliff.

We are in a hesitancy market.

I think I've got about-- I had about eight or nine scheduled, but by the time you come to Saturday morning, most of them have been withdrawn because there's not a lot of buyers out there.

Um, so at the moment, bit of a Mexican standoff.

So people are nervous.

So the question for you, first one is, what's the biggest mistake you're seeing estate agents make at the moment with AI?

...stopping talking to people and spending all their time... ...on bleeding edge technology instead of cutting edge technology.

I've seen this story happen many, many times.

Something new happens in real estate.

People think this new shiny object is going to change everything.

And what happens is they drop what they're doing... ...and focus on the shiny object.

Now let's be clear...

Would I play roulette and put my problem in the hat? I mean, you're

Isn't that what we're trying to do here?

Look, and firstly, let me just say, a lot of these properties don't go to auction.

Most of them, that first home buyer market, James, it's important that your audience around Australia is aware, and I do this for a living on the weekends, but they're not your typical auction properties because first home buyers, auctions are unconditional.

So banks and lawyers don't like first home buyers going in and sighing their life away without getting a cooling off period.

So you probably find that they're not participating in auction so much.

But regardless, you are right.

There is a cohort of purchasers that have been taken out of the market.

Can you just explain for a moment why a lot of people in the market for property, and I know this to be correct firsthand, but I'm just keen for your expertise, why there are people that just don't want to buy a new apartment off the plan?