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Tom Jensen
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Sep 23, 2026
Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling discusses if the presence of Vice President Vance and President Trump can help Michael Watley in the midterm election
4:12
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3:20Tom JensenGUEST
One of the reasons why North Carolina may end up being a state that Republicans have to give up on this year is they still have a path to the majority, even without North Carolina, but they cannot lose places like Iowa and Alaska and Ohio and Texas, where they're struggling right now.
T
3:37Tom JensenGUEST
And on this particular issue of trying to backtrack on the Iran war, it's very interesting.
T
3:42Tom JensenGUEST
The Republican Senate candidate in Iowa said this week that she's opposed to it.

Jeff HamlinHOST
And overall, the sense that you're getting, do you feel like it's inevitable that Democrats will take at least the House back?
Will Democrats see a big blue wave? Pollster looks at N.C. races
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13:54Tom JensenGUEST
Okay, so my definition of competitive would be if the race gets to five or six points, which might not be exactly the same as the Democrat has a strong path to victory.
T
14:06Tom JensenGUEST
I think we're actually gonna end up with a lot of somewhat close congressional races this year, because basically there's about a 10 point shift to the left from what happened in 2024 and the way that republicans have drawn the congressional lines in the state in the sort of normal election year they're supposed to win all these districts by 14 or 15 points but because we have this 10-point national shift to the left i think we're actually going to end up with a lot of 53 47 52 48 54 46 sort of congressional races in the state this year when we really weren't supposed to have any single digit races ever so i think it's sort of uh worth watching richard ojeta in the ninth district raymond smith in the third district kimberly hardy in the seventh district i think they all have the potential to have like five point races or so and then it'll just be a question of whether enough resources come in for them in october either from their own fundraising or from national groups sort of looking to expand the map to get interested in those districts.
T
15:12Tom JensenGUEST
But I'll tell you, those are the kinds of districts that we have national groups polling now to see if there's something that can be done there to actually have a path to victory.
T
15:22Tom JensenGUEST
So I definitely agree with you that the first and the 11th are by far and away the most competitive districts in the state.
T
15:29Tom JensenGUEST
And they're the only ones that I would sort of say today that I think have a strong argument for either party winning one way or the other.
T
15:37Tom JensenGUEST
But we are going to end up with a lot more competitive congressional races than we were ever supposed to have because of the way that the map is sort of just structured in a way that will lead to a lot of relatively close races this year.
Queensland Country Hour
37:22
39:10

Kelly BuchananHOST
Tom Jensen is the General Manager of Freight Policy and Operations at the Freight and Trade Alliance, and he tells Simon Wallace a lot has changed in recent weeks.
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37:32Tom JensenGUEST
So we've seen a lot of major carriers suspend their bookings to and from the UAE region, and that includes the likes of Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Saudi Arabia themselves.
T
37:45Tom JensenGUEST
And, yeah, as you mentioned, there's only about 13 vessels been going through in the last couple of days.
T
37:52Tom JensenGUEST
There's been about 10 attacks since the 25th of June on vessels, and it doesn't seem to be ending any time soon.
T
37:58Tom JensenGUEST
So what does this mean for freight, Tom? It's on hold again through that region, unfortunately.
T
38:03Tom JensenGUEST
So we have sort of seen a back off in any case and no real resumption of trade.

Simon WallaceCORRESPONDENT
Will things go back to be as bad as they were or because Australia's asked for extra fuel and things like that, things are going to be a little different this time?
TUESDAY SHOW - 30th June 📻
54:06
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53:09Tom JensenGUEST
Uh, so what we're hearing from members is, uh, a lot of delays around the pickups of freight at the terminal and also lodgment of freight.
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53:17Tom JensenGUEST
So anything coming through Sydney at the moment via air freight on airlines that are serviced by Qantas Freight, uh, essentially being bottlenecked at the terminal.
T
53:25Tom JensenGUEST
So we're hearing delays of days up to weeks at a time and a lot of instances of lost freight or missing freight, and some of this freight is, is life-saving and critical material, so it's quite impactful.
T
53:39Tom JensenGUEST
Now, uh, Qantas have put some of that down to the, the redirection of flights as a result of the Middle East conflict.
T
53:47Tom JensenGUEST
There's been a lot more pressure on Sydney Airport taking a lot more flights, uh, that they might not have scheduled in previous times.

James WillisHOST
So to be clear, are there still issues, or have the issues been resolved and they're now just trying to clear the backlog? And is everything possible being done, in your view, to clear this backlog and get businesses back on track, or do you think more should be being done right now?
The Bad Show
A
55:06Aaron ScottCORRESPONDENT
And give up the few details that they really needed to link him certifiably to all these crimes.
T
55:57Tom JensenGUEST
I gotta tell you, uh, I'm not totally comfortable that you're providing all the information that you have about-
