And Tim, what does this all mean for us here in Britain?

Well, look, I think the interesting thing to me is there are some parallels here with what has happened in this country.

I think, you know, as Freddie was saying, you had a situation where Trump sort of pulled this remarkable group of people together two years ago, a little bit like Keir Starmer did in 2024.

But what seems to have happened is kind of what happened with the Starmer government is that in the end, Trump has managed to sort of almost repel all of those groups, you know, kind of the traditional Republican kind of base, the sort of MAGA people who came to him who were offended by the fact that, you know, he went to war when he said he wasn't going to.

You know, he won on cost of living and now the cost of living has gone soaring and he's paid the price for that.

But equally, I think there are probably lessons for the Democrats in the same way there probably might end up being for the Labour Party, which is that, you know, don't just assume because you've swept in on this huge kind of wave of public revulsion at the people in charge that that necessarily means everybody loves you.

And I think the Democrats make a pretty serious error if they assume.

And so after the midterms, now that they are in Congress and looking ahead to 2028, whoever emerges as the likely runners, people talking a lot about Senator John Ossoff from Georgia at the And I think there they will meet resistance again from the American people.

Tim, can you take us through some of the top lines?

Yeah, I mean, this is an interesting one because she wanted to increase indefinite leave to remain up to 10 years.

And it's caused ructions in the Labour Party.

And what we've got here is a partial climb down to Labour MPs.

But actually, I think on the face of it, it's still a much tougher policy than what we've had.

So essentially, if you come here and you earn less than £50,000 a year, you will take 10 years to get your indefinite leave to remain.

If you have come and earned over £50,000, that will be reduced to five years.

Is the issue now settled within the party or can we expect to see this rumble on a bit longer?

Tim, given the context in which Andy Burnham and John Healy found themselves, what did you think for the budget? What can we derive from it in terms of political strategy and political consequences?

Well, I'm glad Michael's read the budget book, so I don't have to either.

Because in 29 years of journalism, 25 years in the lobby, I think this is my 23rd budget.

I was struggling to stay awake for most of it.

John Healy is a fine man, but he's not one of life's great performers.

And as Michael said, this was the square root of nothing, really, at the end of the day.

I kept having to WhatsApp my friends and say, what did he just say? Because my mind was wandering.

this budget, you know, could have been delivered by, you know, maybe with perhaps less skill, but by the Starmer-Reeves combo, or are we missing something?

Given the context in which Andy Burnham and John Healey found themselves, what did you think for the budget? What can we derive from it in terms of political strategy and political consequences?

Well, I'm glad Michael's read the budget book, so I don't have to either.

Because in 29 years of journalism, 25 years in the lobby, I think this is my 23rd budget.

I was struggling to stay awake for most of it.

John Healy is a fine man, but he's not one of life's great performers.

And as Michael said, this was the square root of nothing, really, at the end of the day.

I kept having to WhatsApp my friends and say, what did he just say? Because my mind was wandering.

Do you think this budget, you know, could have been delivered by, you know, maybe with perhaps less skill, but by the Starmer Reeves combo, or are we missing something?

What can we expect at this stage? It seems that we've had some more budget goodies announced in the days up to it.

Yeah, I mean, look, they've been doing a lot of sort of cost-of-living stuff, small beer.

We've just been, you know, excitingly told that we're going to lose tariffs on baked beans and gherkins, part of your traditional weekly shop.

Not in our family, but...

Not a Gherkin fan myself, but there's been lots of little things which have all sort of added up to not much, but they're good sort of signalling from Burnham and his camp about a sort of intent to help with the cost of living.

I think, you know, there have been reports from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and others in the last few days which effectively say that you know, energy prices and all of that will more than outweigh any sort of minor amounts of help that the government has offered so far.

So I think you will see a multiple billion kind of effort to ease those energy prices in a kind of targeted way.

But actually, they're broader questions that I'm more interested in.

Tim, what do you make of Burnham's approach to the current situation with Zelensky and Trump, particularly given that foreign affairs isn't his strong suit?

Look, I mean, we've got very used to these visits by Volodymyr Zelensky, and in a sense, it's sort of less dramatic than it used to be when he turned up.

But this, I think, was one of his more dramatic visits because it comes at a moment where, you know, America traditionally, our sort of major ally, is basically pulling stumps on Zelensky.

Trump has said that he thinks he should resign.

He's done a deal behind Zelensky's back with, with the Russians on diesel, and, uh, it appears he's withdrawn intelligence support.

We've seen reports out of Ukraine, and Zelensky's been talking about this in the interviews that he's done, that, you know, they're no longer getting the targeting information they need, which is leading the Russians to have more successful drone strikes on Ukraine and made it difficult for Ukraine to, to strike back itself.

So this is a, a crisis moment.

Yes, they're bold and brave seemingly, but the second order consequences are not always positive.

Tim, take us through the knockabout then.

Yeah, I mean, look, I think this was an interesting session, actually.

I rather enjoyed it.

It felt to me like they were both quite relaxed.

They both know what they think.

But Burnham is so trying to have it both ways.

You know, on the one hand, he says, "We're going to do politics differently." And then he said, praises Kemi Badenoch, um, which is another way of just having a pop at Reform.

Mm.

Just interests, not values.

Yes, exactly.

And, and, you know, this is where there's a sort of...

You can exist in a European polity, as we do, and you can be part of a sort of a joint defense program.

You can be part of a, a system where clearly you want to be doing business and trade together.

But, but the EU is, is a, you know, is a, is a kind of cartel, and it, it, it wants you on its terms if it wants you at all.

And this seems to have been sort of misunderstood.

Yes, five seats, yes.

what does it all mean?

Well, look, if you look at what we've just had, all these party conferences, what Luke says is spot on.

Everything Andy Burnham did at that party conference, electoral reform, revisiting Brexit, National Care Service, this is all stuff that's designed to attract Green and Lib Dem voters.

And it appears to have worked in this case.

And everything the Conservative Party did was designed to say, at some point, we'll grab some support back, we'll get ahead of reform, and then we'll be the natural party of the right.

Now, To draw too many conclusions about what has happened here on the right is, I mean, this is three bald blokes fighting over a single hair on a comb, isn't it? But the Tories have grabbed that singular hair and have put it proudly upon their forehead and tried to weave it into an extravagant comb over this morning.

I mean, you look at that and Restore got 2.5%.

I

Was Kemi policy maxing?

Policy maxing.

Yes, our editor, Mr. Gove, has been on the television saying that she is peng because she's policy maxing.

Uh, I haven't the first clue what either of those things means, but, um, I bow down to his greater knowledge of, uh, the local argot.

Look, I think this was almost the inverse of Andy Burnham's speech, which was brilliantly delivered and containing fairly horrendous content.

This was a very good speech content-wise, though the delivery was a little bit flat and plodding, and there were lots of places where she paused for applause, and it wasn't necessarily, uh, forthcoming in, with, in, with the waves of glee that she had hoped.

But I think most people left the room thinking, "This is a politician who knows what she thinks.

Yeah.

Tell us about the policy.

Well, it sort of is an Iron Dome because everyone doesn't understand what the Iron Dome is.

Israel actually has a three-layered air defense system of which the Iron Dome is the li- the bit at the bottom, the lower level stuff that stops short-range missiles and drones and that sort of thing, and that's exactly what, um, the Tories are talking about.

They slightly, I think, oversold it in their press release where they're talking about defending the whole of the United Kingdom.

The, the idea is that you would defend the southeast from missiles fired from elsewhere.

They were not really expecting, despite a, a, a se- a thousand years of relations with the French being a bit sticky, that often we're gonna get missiles fired from France in the same way that Israel gets them fired from all the countries around it.

But it would defend critical infrastructure and probably defend airports, nuclear power stations, that kind of thing.

But I w- around the bar, everyone's like, "What the hell is this?"

What do you make from the big picture of how the Tories are doing? Things are

obviously very much healthier in terms of the vibes than they were a year ago.

Kemi was, if not on the rocks, at least heading towards them.

I think the big picture is this is a, you know, an opportunity has opened up here.

You know, Andy Burnham has arrived.

He's obviously a more formidable campaigner and political operator than Keir Starmer was.

But you look at that speech, and it is boilerplate 1970s socialist kind of messaging.

let's get you back in, talking about what that can give you in life, I think might start making a bit of a difference.

What do you make from the big picture of how the Tories are doing?

Things are obviously very much healthier in terms of the vibes than they were.

Um, a year ago, uh, Kemi was, if not on the rocks, at least heading towards them.

I think the big picture is this is a, you know, an opportunity has opened up here.

You know, Andy Burnham has arrived.

He's obviously a more formidable campaigner and political operator than Keir Starmer was, but you look at that speech, and it is boilerplate 1970s socialist kind of messaging, and that puts the economy back, you know, on the agenda as the thing, uh, where an opposition party can get some traction, and that is what is now beginning to happen.

You know, the numbers have turned already.

[laughs]

Tell us about the interview you did with her on Monday.

She's in a very bullish frame of mind.

And, you know, Kemi, most people would accept, including her, could probably start a sort of firestorm with an empty telephone box.

But she really is leaning into this kind of, you know, I'm a difficult customer kind of, I'm going to say it as it is and I don't care what the consequences are approach.

So...

The policy is basically that you won't be able to go straight out of school onto benefits until you're 25, unless you have six months of continuous work.

When you start to claim universal credit, you'll have to go off to some kind of work camp, essentially, and learn how to do interviews and how to behave at work.

She's going to have to try and build that on, I suppose, this year and show that the Tories are on the road to recovery after a difficult set of local elections this year.

Uh, tell us about the interview you did with her on Monday.

She's in a very bullish frame of mind, and, you know, Kemi, most people would accept, including her, could probably start a sort of firestorm with an empty telephone box.

But she really is leaning into this kind of, um, you know, I'm a difficult customer, kind of, uh, I'm gonna say it as it is, and I don't care what the consequences are, uh, approach.

So, the policy is basically that, you know, you won't be able to go straight out of school onto benefits until you're 25, unless you have six months of continuous work when you start to claim Universal Credit.

You'll have to go off to some kind of work camp essentially and learn how to do interviews and how to behave at work and, and all that sort of thing.

And you'll do six months of that, and then, uh, and you'll be paid a sort of, um, get to work allowance, which is not the same as Universal Credit.

And, uh, once you come off that, if you don't get a job after six months, you'll go down to a sort of subsistence level payment, and you'll be, uh, the problem of your parents rather than the taxpayer.

She's gonna have to try and build that on, I suppose, this year and show that the Tories are on the road to recovery after a difficult set of local elections this year.

What is the main message that she wants to get across?

Well, yeah, I mean, it's tough love.

It's more tough than love, really.

And we've done her up on the front as Mary Poppins wielding her umbrella in an aggressive fashion.

Yeah, I mean, look, I had a quick catch up with her after Burnham's speech as well.

So there is, the interview does cover that.

I mean, I think what she thinks is that burnham is veering off to the left and she needs to make remake the case for conservative values popular capitalism and um i think she's quite excited about it i mean she sort of says kirsten was dreadful completely uninteresting she thinks andy burnham is quite interesting he knows who he is he wants to do things but because he wants to do things that are so drastically different from where the conservatives are that gives her she sees that as a bit of an opportunity and on welfare they clearly think that's You know, along with the economy more broadly, they think that those are their sort of winning propositions.

She

What is the main message that she wants to get across?

Well, yeah, I mean, it's tough love.

It's more tough than love, really.

And we've done her up on the front as Mary Poppins wielding her umbrella in an aggressive fashion.

Yeah, I mean, look, I had a quick catch up with her after Burnham's speech as well.

So there is the interview does cover that.

I mean, I think what she thinks is that.

And

[laughs]

And we've done her up on the front as Mary Poppins wielding her umbrella in an aggressive fashion.

I mean, I think what she thinks is that Burnham is veering off to the left, and she needs to ma- re- remake the case for conservative values, popular capitalism, and I think she's quite excited about it.

I mean, she sort of, sort of says Keir Starmer's dreadful, completely uninteresting.

She thinks Andy Burnham's quite interesting.

He knows who he is.

He wants to do things, but because he wants to do things that are so drastically different from where the conservatives are, that gives her...

[laughs]

What are your overall reflections on the speech?

Well, I've been coming to party conferences, uh, since two thousand and one.

I've spent fifteen months of my life at party conferences.

I've seen probably seventy leaders' speeches across all the main parties.

I'd say this is one of the handful of most significant that I've heard.

The delivery was bravura.

It looked like he was doing no notes.

Was that a smart move on Burnham's part?

What are your overall reflections on the speech?

Well, I've been coming to party conferences, uh, since 2001.

I've spent 15 months of my life at party conferences.

I've seen probably 70 leaders' speeches across all the main parties.

I'd say this is one of the handful of most significant that I've heard.

The delivery was bravura.

It looked like he was doing no notes.

Was that a smart move on Burnham's part?

But there are some, some in the Red Wall, and, you know, the likes of Jonathan Hinder, Mike Tup, who understand that this is an issue that their constituents care about and where their constituents are in a very different place from the party membership.

And it's the tension in the Labour Party between their traditional working class vote, which is in those seats.

You know, you talk to Jonathan Hinder, he knows all about that.

He knocks on those people's doors and they talk to him.

And a Labour Party which for quite some time has been basically controlled by the North London liberal set, that is obviously not now the case that Burnham is there.

It, all these northern MPs have come to take over.

It, it, Louise Haigh and Ana- Anneliese Midgley and people like that, they, they understand this stuff.

Does Andy Burnham have a plan for growth? Is he focusing enough attention on it?

That's right, isn't it, Tim? I mean, James says we're the third biggest kind of AI player, but we don't actually have any influence over this, right? The Americans are just going to do what the Americans want to do.

Yeah, I mean, look, we had a sort of unique capability, I guess, which was this safety institute, which Sunak set up and StarMod, to be fair to him, kept going and...

You know, Burnham has now appointed a bunch of people with experience.

Henry de Zoot, former Tory special advisor, was involved in setting up that safety institute.

He's now got another job doing AI stuff.

So there is a decent bit of cross-party continuity at the top.

I think James is right.

and tim another thing that james mentions in his column is that andy burnham is going to judge ai and in fact apparently all policies by what he calls the maker field test is that a sensible way to to judge policy

So tell us about the results.

Yeah, so the first one is a YouGov super poll for The Times, and this effectively shows Reform way down on where they were this time last year.

So it puts Labour in front with 241 seats, which is, you know, 85 short of a majority.

Tories second with 130, which is 10 more than they've got at the moment, and way up on the 45 seats that YouGov was predicting a year ago, and Reform in third place on 123 seats.

Now, bearing in mind, a year ago, they had 188 more seats than that in the YouGov MRP.

So Tories seizing on this and saying, "Look, the right's split.

We are now ahead of Reform.

Mm

Were they looking for an excuse?

Uh, I'm not sure that they were really because Noah's right that Starmer never kind of really resolved from the principle of it, but they definitely kicked it into the long grass.

And once it was clear that the White House weren't prepared to support it, it was effectively put on ice, and Burnham revived it and essentially came back and said, "Oh no, we actually do need to push ahead with this." And, and it turns out that the President of the United States has a bigger stick than the President of Mauritius.

Um, whoever would have thought it? So he's gone over there.

It's interesting, isn't it? The sort of Love Actually Labour Party that gets in a room with the leader of the free world and suddenly decides that he might actually have a point.

Um, and that actually can bring quite a lot of pleasure and pain to a British government.

And more power to Tony Diver of The Telegraph who asked the key question at the press conference.

Can you give us a little flavor of what we can expect?

Can you also take us sort of behind the scenes in terms of how diplomats will be preparing Burnham for this moment as well?

The agenda will be getting to know you, bit of chat about Ukraine, bit of chat about state of the world, Iran, Straits of Hormuz, all of that.

But Burnham, uh, will almost certainly face some Trumpian interventions on, "Why aren't you drilling the North Sea?" To which Burnham, if he's being honest, will say, "Well, we might well do, but we can't do it before the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, Mr.

President.

Otherwise, those terrible greens might get in." Chagos might come up, you know, which Burnham is sort of still keeping simmering, and Trump thinks completely deranged.

But generally, the two subjects on which, uh, Trump is, uh, prepared, apropos of nothing to offer advice to British prime ministers, is fossil fuels and the need to get them out of the ground, and immigration and the need to stop it.

And he will sort of, um, probably proffer something unexpected in those areas.

And Tim, can you just talk us through the significance of Andy Burnham saying Britain will help Saudi Arabia's war effort against the Houthis? Not quite in keeping with Burnham's adage that we always back the little guy or the underdog, but nonetheless, what does that mean for the country? What does it mean for his politics and his supporters?