even if it's got a lot of ifs attached to it, the move that Nicola Willis made last week, Tim?

Well, very shocked.

I've never had so many phone calls from people in the National Party upset and put out.

And I mean, that's the core base of the National Party just seems quite taken aback.

It's not something that they expected or indeed I think is very popular for people that I really wouldn't expect to be upset, but they are.

I haven't heard a lot of people in favour of it.

So it'll be very interesting to see what happens when the next set of polls come out, because some quite aggrieved people right throughout the centre-right.

How worried will Labour be by Barbara Ebron's low result? And again, is this another reflection of the criticisms of Labour that it's laid too low for too long? And now there's a lot of ground to be made up even just with name recognition and face recognition.

even if it's got a lot of ifs attached to it, the move that Nicola Willis made last week, Tim?

Well, very shocked.

I've never had so many phone calls from people in the National Party upset and put out.

And I mean, that's the core base of the National Party just seems quite taken aback.

It's not something that they expected or indeed I think is very popular for people that I really wouldn't expect to be upset, but they are.

I haven't heard a lot of people in favour of it.

So it'll be very interesting to see what happens when the next set of polls come out, because some quite aggrieved people right throughout the centre-right.

How worried will Labour be by Barbara Ebron's low result? And again, is this another reflection of the criticisms of Labour that it's laid too low for too long? And now there's a lot of ground to be made up, even just with name recognition and face recognition.

Again, how much does this register? How much is this going to come onto the radar of the government? It has made some tweaks, some changes, but it didn't seem to make Wayne Brown very happy.

Yeah, well, obviously, I've done work for Wayne Brown and Mahi Dreyfus, so just declaring those conflicts, but...

I think the problem is there has been a huge amount of work done in the last five to 10 years.

At the peak of the property boom, there was a need to get more supply.

We've had a supply side reaction of more land being built.

We've got a change to the water and infrastructure.

So this feels like there's been a long-term planning to try and build the pipeline of more housing ability.

Can we dig a little bit deeper into what's happening, please?

Fundamentally, the mayors are saying, "We're doing work on planning for growth, and that is being railroaded by the fast track, um, and it is not taking into account the infrastructure needs like waste and like transport." And actually, the may-mayor of Queenstown said to us, "The land that we've zoned for development has gone up in value, and now we're finding the lower value land all over the place is proving attractive for these deals." Again, how much does this register? How much is this going to come onto the radar of the government? It has made some tweaks, some changes, but it didn't seem to make Wayne Brown very happy.

Yeah, well, obviously I've done work for Wayne Brown and, uh, Mahe Drysdale, so just declaring those conflicts.

But I think the problem is there has been a huge amount of work done in the last, uh, five to 10 years, um, at the peak of the property boom, and there was a, a, a need to get more supply.

We've had a supply side reaction of more, of more land being built.

We've got a change to the water and infrastructure, so this feels like there's been a long-term planning to try and build the pipeline of m-more housing ability.

And I think these, um, mayors and councils are a bit exasperated by the fact that now we're going back to a system where, um, arbitrarily, um, new land's being put into the pot.

And I guess given that the property and the property market's flat and the, um, the, the population growth is certainly a long way down on what it was, um, the need for new supply has sort of backed off.

... please, Tim?

Does it matter, Tim? And does the shifting shape of a potential center-right coalition, were those numbers to be delivered, does that matter in terms of how each of the parties currently in government conducts this campaign?

campaign?Um, I think, I think, um, it's becoming a- almost a distraction that they're spending so much time fighting with each other.

They're probably ignoring the bigger problem, which is how do you, uh, as Gareth says, secure, um, enough seats to form a government? Um, and I, in, in preparation for this, um, I went and had a look at the number- numbers in our recent Fresh Water poll.

Um, and the center right, uh, amongst men is getting 53% of the vote to the left's 42.

So that's an 11-point gap for men, and it's almost flipped the other way for women, though.

53% of women are supporting the center left and 45 are getting, uh, are going for the right.

And so the challenge is for these political parties is how do you, uh, connect and bring votes over from the other block into your block? And I guess when you're distracted by trying to have a bigger argument about wokesters, and hipsters, and nationalism, and patriotism, and whatever else they were yelling at each other on the weekend, um, it's sort of, um,as almost, um, a distraction when you're trying to appeal to the centrist middle voter who's probably more interested in the cost of living issue, which is right through the roof-

... strategy from here?

If Labour keeps saying we're going to run the cost of living line and National keeps focusing on you have to be strict with the books, who's going to win that one?

Well, I think there's a couple of things to think about there.

One is the fact that the...

the Labour Party will have to present itself as being in a credible alternative government.

Voters generally don't switch, take the risk of changing from an incumbent to an opposition unless they're confident that people taking over actually know what they're doing.

So these sort of pressures on whether they've actually got the competence of understanding what their what they're saying is actually connected with their finances is important, and that's why National's going very hard at it.

But I think ultimately, going back to some of the things that Gareth was talking about and that you've said, the geopolitics are crucial here.

coming to that in a moment, but first question to you, Tim, in terms of that battle, and how key this demographic, and indeed the service towns and everything else, because this is the one sector of the economy that is on a roll at the moment, how important is it to how the numbers land for the three members of the coalition?

If Labour keeps saying we're going to run the cost of living line and National keeps focusing on you have to be strict with the books, who's going to win that one?

Well, I think there's a couple of things to think about there.

One is the fact that the...

the Labour Party will have to present itself as being an accreditable alternative government.

Voters generally don't switch, take the risk of changing from an incumbent to an opposition unless they're confident the people taking over actually know what they're doing.

So these sort of pressures on whether they've actually got the competence of understanding what they're doing what they're saying is actually connected with their finances is important, and that's why National's going very hard at it.

But I think ultimately, going back to some of the things that Gareth was talking about and that you've said, the geopolitics are crucial here.

coming to that in a moment but first question to you Tim in terms of that battle and how key this demographic and indeed the service towns and everything else because this is the one sector of the economy that is you know on a on a role at the moment how important is it to how the numbers land for the three members of the coalition

Tim, what's your take on the job cuts in the public service?

Well, just...

Sorry, always going a bit off topic here, but to the point about the Ming-Ba strategy and things like that, those sort of...

We'll do this, but the binary nature of Labour versus National and something like that doesn't reflect our electoral system.

It works overseas where you've got either one or the other.

But we have these multi-party governments now.

So if people don't particularly like it, they might go to New Zealand First who are pushing out their ideas.

How much of that is going to be a magic bullet, do you anticipate, for business?