Um, Tim, in your view, I mean, does this statistical backdrop, I mean, prove that the Green Party is merely reflecting a legitimate, perhaps global awakening against a state that is practicing human rights abuses on a daily basis?

Well, there is an extent to which they are channeling popular opinion, but I think they have overshot in this case.

I think if you look at popular opinion in the UK and you dig a little bit deeper into those opinion polls, uh, there is very little sympathy for the idea that the State of Israel should somehow be dissolved, uh, and there should be a kind of one state, Palestinian state.

Uh, I think most people in the UK, and polling supports this, inasmuch as they think about it at all, approve of a two-state solution and disapprove very strongly of the Netanyahu government.

So most people's objections to what's going on in Gaza, um, relate to the, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu and, uh, some of his far right, uh, partners in that government, rather than necessarily, uh, moving into the question of whether Israel has a, a right to exist.

Uh, and I think obviously there are some people in the Green Party who have a problem with that idea and have a problem with the State of Israel per se.

Tim, by equating Zionism, um, with racism, um, has the Green Party failed its own progressive values, do you think, or has it succeeded in going perhaps where other progressive parties have never gone before? Does it help or harm the Greens at the end of all of this?

Well, I think as Jonathan was saying, politically it probably is a mistake.

Where do you think the party conferences leave us? I mean, there's much talk about a new big battle of ideas between the parties and that's certainly how Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch were keen to frame it in Liverpool and Manchester.

Yeah, certainly I think Kemi Badenoch seems to be talking a lot more about the economy now, which I think is sensible actually.

That is the Conservatives' strong suit, despite in some ways what Liz Truss did.

If you look at the polling, people still have some faith in the Conservatives on the economy.

I think she did dive too deeply into culture war issues, which actually put quite a lot of the voters that they need to win back, and I'm including there people in Liberal Democrat seats.

Although it might have perhaps pulled some people back from reform, the evidence is it's very, very difficult to do that.

As far as Burnham goes, he had a very successful conference.

But I think Eliza's right to explain it as something that politicians from all sides pay more attention to.

Here's politics professor Tim Bale again.

And many of those members are particularly preoccupied with the situation in the Middle East and Gaza in particular.

That meant that it was almost inevitable at some point that there would be a kind of clash between them and their focus on that particular issue, and the MPs in Parliament who are, in some ways, more representative of the Green Party as it was before Polanski became the leader.

They are very much environmentally focused, and while obviously I think it w- is the case that they have a great deal of sympathy for the population of both Israel and indeed the West Bank and Gaza, I think many of those MPs, and there are only a handful of them, regard the vote at the conference as a political mistake.

Um, and also in terms of the principle involved, uh, do not agree that Zionism is racism, and do not agree that the way forward i- in terms of solving the situation in Israel-Palestine is a one-state Palestinian state.

Uh, they are still committed to a two-state solution and are very wary of anything that smacks of a desire to somehow dissolve the State of Israel.

Where, where are the intersections? I mean, who, who are we actually talking about?

The psychology of Green Party members and Labour Party members, as are the demographics actually of Green Party members and Labour Party members, are fairly similar.

Tim, in your view, I mean, does this statistical backdrop, I mean, prove that the Green Party is merely reflecting a legitimate Perhaps global awakening against a state that is practicing human rights abuses on a daily basis.

Well, there is an extent to which they are channeling popular opinion, but I think they have overshot in this case.

I think if you look at popular opinion in the UK and you dig a little bit deeper into those opinion polls, there is very little sympathy for the idea that the state of Israel should somehow be dissolved and there should be a kind of one state Palestinian state.

I think most people in the UK and polling supports this in as much as they think about it at all, approve of a two state solution and disapprove very strongly of the Netanyahu government.

So most people's objections to what's going on in Gaza relate to the government of Benjamin Netanyahu and some of his far right partners in that government, rather than necessarily moving into the question of whether Israel has a right to exist.

And I think obviously there are some people in the Green Party who have a problem with that idea and have a problem with the state of Israel per se.

Tim, by equating Zionism with racism, has the Green Party failed its own progressive values, do you think? Or has it succeeded in going perhaps where other progressive parties have never gone before? Does it help or harm the Greens at the end of all of this?

Well, I think as Jonathan was saying, politically, it probably is a mistake.

But do you think we're at an inflection point or a turning point in UK politics where these kind of large donations could become the norm along the lines of what we see in the US?

I don't think that is going to happen.

I think there is a mood among the public and to some extent the political class to try and stop what we've seen in America happening to the UK.

We already have spending limits for political parties, particularly in the year before an election, to try and, as it were, limit the influence of money in politics.

And I think if you look at opinion polls today, The public is worried about very wealthy individuals buying influence by giving large amounts of money to political parties.

The problem that political parties have, of course, is that the public is also allergic to any kind of state funding for political parties.

So they are caught to some extent between a rock and a hard place.

Do you think whatever happens in terms of any backdated legislation has news of these mega donations been a boon, do you think, to Nigel Farage and the party?

France is an extraordinary and interesting case, isn't it? Because, uh, Marine Le Pen, uh, who heads the far-right party there, I mean, she really is polling very high.

Yes, absolutely.

But we have seen in France, of course, uh, candidates from, uh, the far right get into, uh, the last round of the presidential elections before and, and be defeated.

So her victory isn't inevitable, however much she and her, her like-minded parties like to present it as such.

Um, Italy is an interesting one because, of course, uh, we have elections there next year, but Giorgia Meloni is already, in some senses, a far-right, um, prime minister.

Spain is really one to watch, I agree.

There we have a far-right party, Vox, uh, which has to some extent in previous elections flattered to deceive.

Are we well beyond describing some of these parties like AfD as, as protest votes now? Are we starting or do you think the, the mainstream has started to understand that this, this is part of public thinking now? This is not kind of knee-jerk, we don't like the lot of you, so we're gonna have a go with this lot.

It shows that they want more Nigel, because in a lower turnout, he gets a greater, uh, higher number of votes." How would you interpret it? Morning, Tim.

Well, I mean, he will be able to argue that it was a convincing win.

I don't think, however, it will be so convincing that his opponents won't be able to argue that actually he's run into a little bit of trouble.

Uh, people were saying that in order, in some ways, to justify his by-election, uh, call, he should be getting North Korean type results.

So we're talking kind of ninety percent.

He managed sixty-three percent.

That's not bad, but that's not brilliant, and the fact that Count Binface, you know, managed twenty-seven percent of the vote is, quite frankly, an amazing result for a novelty candidate.

Isn't it part of the hoopla of British politics, Tim?

And what's the history of this brand? Because it was really pitched as a way people could be assured farmers like you were being paid a good amount for their milk, wasn't it?

Well, true, and, and yes, it, it has worked that way.

You know, we were pretty happy to do that.

Unfortunately, um, when you're dealing with, with such a, such a big company like that, we got lost in the, in the, uh, in the shelf space, I think is, is for want of a better word.

Um, and it became hard for them in what to do.

And, um, the oversupply to pick up suppliers, um, is a lot different from actually just having milk delivered to your shop.

Um, but, you know, we... and we had, uh, so many different buyers over the years that the story, uh, gets lost.

What does this say about the state of the, the wider dairy industry then and, and, well, the current cost of living problems for Australians? Do, do you think this sort of shows that Australians are going back to the cheapest form of milk and they're not paying more for, um, specialty brands like Farmers Own, which was assuring them farmers were getting paid well, or, or am I reading too much into it?

And what's the history of this brand? Because it was really pitched as a way people could be assured farmers like you were being paid a good amount for their milk, wasn't it?

Well, true, and, and yes, it, it has worked that way.

You know, we were pretty happy to do that.

Unfortunately, um, when you're dealing with, with such a, such a big company like that, we got lost in the, in the, uh, in the shelf space, I think, as, as for want of a better word.

Um, and it became hard for them in what to do, and, um, the oversupply to pick up suppliers, um, is a lot different from actually just having milk delivered to your shop.

Um, but, you know, we... and we had, uh, so many different buyers over the years that the story, uh, gets lost.

You know, it's, it's a bit like the, the old saying where the, where the first farmer makes it, the second farmer holds it, and the third one loses it.

What does this say about the state of the, the wider dairy industry then and, and, well, the current cost of living problems for Australians? Do, do you think this sort of shows that Australians are going back to the cheapest form of milk and they're not paying more for, um, specialty brands like Farmers Own, which was assuring them farmers were getting paid well or, or am I reading too much into it?

Queensland's dairy advocacy body, East Oz Milk president, Tim Bail, says there's 250 to 300 million liters coming into Queensland from across the border.

I'm really concerned because it's just, to me, it's the thin edge of the wedge.

Um, and the fact that, um, why, why is he, why is he being singled out? Um, and then you've got other farmers saying, "Well, we're not gonna speak up, you know, we'll keep quiet, keep our heads down in case we're next." Um, and the ramifications of this are, are just incredible when you, when you think...

You know, I talked to Norco and, and, um, and I sort of understand why they, they would like to take him, 'cause I said it'd be a good news story.

Um, but they can't, and it all stems back to a lot of the same problems that, um, Baktelis has shut their plant.

Some of Norco's milk was going through there.

Now Norco has a greater volume of milk they've gotta deal with, and they're, they're, they've got issues there, just dealing with their excess.

Why is this happening?

Mm

...

the key finance ministerial, uh, position.

It looks like it's slipped away from Andy Burnham's key ally, Ed Miliband, who is seen by some to risk spooking the markets, to coin that cliche, and instead go to Shabana Mahmood, who is seen to be more on the right of the Labour Party and probably, uh, will cause a few eruptions, uh, in, in the market.

That means Ed Miliband will probably go to foreign secretary.

Uh, but it is absolutely clear that he does have to, uh, signal a departure from what's gone on before.

Otherwise, in some ways, there is no point, uh, replacing Keir Starmer with someone else.

Mm.

And, you know, uh, you know, has economic frustration, you know, become, say, a catalyst for political change here?

I think it is the case clearly that, um, the change from, if you like, the kind of golden era of growth, um, from the, the post-war period right up until really the global financial crisis of 2008 got people used to the idea that their wages would rise year on year.

There would be some recessions occasionally, but things would bounce back.

But we are now in a situation where, because of competition, including from competition from China, for example, the, the...

Europe is no longer the, the workshop of the world.

Uh, industry has passed very much to Asian countries, and therefore employment opportunities, and particularly employment opportunities for good, steady jobs that will last people a lifetime, and provide for people who don't necessarily take an academic route, they have all become rather more difficult.

And clearly, if you look at the, um, spread of support for populist radical right parties, it is very often concentrated in what we would refer to as post-industrial areas.

Uh, well, looking ahead for the next 5 or 10 years, do you expect, uh, these, you know, um, right-wing parties, you know, to become regular parties or the mainstream parties, you know, either in a coalition government or, uh, independently dominating the political scene in, in some individual members there?

Explain that to me.

Winning by losing effectively refers to the fact that although populist radical right parties don't necessarily get into government, don't even necessarily make it into parliament on some occasions, do sufficiently well to worry mainstream parties enough to encourage them to try and alleviate the threat by aping the rhetoric or adopting the policies of the populist radical right.

So it's not necessarily the case that you have to get into government, you have to run a country in order to be able to influence policies in pretty powerful ways.

I think it's also important to realise that mainstream parties are often willing to do deals at the electoral level and indeed at the governmental level with populist radical right parties, which means further normalizes and legitimizes them.

So you have situations in many European countries where at least at the subnational level, you will get coalitions and you also get agreements to stand down candidates or to, as in Australia, allocate preferences to each other.

Sometimes that can be formal.

In some countries, sometimes it can be informal, so you'll get tactical voting between mainstream conservative parties and populist radical right parties, and that's part of this wider normalisation and legitimisation of the populist radical right.

So if I was a lobby group, if I was a vested interest, if I had money to burn and wanted to donate it to a political party, it seems like this could be a pretty good way to get what I was after in politics, right?

In some ways, the United States of

America is the paradigmatic example of a party which has been, if you like, captured from the inside by the populist radical right.

What you had was a series of movements, beginning with the Tea Party and then the kind of MAGA movement, which, if you like, et the host, the Republican Party, from the inside.

And you now have a situation in which essentially the populist radical right is running the Republican Party.

But I don't think that is completely unusual.

You do see that, for example, in Hungary.

You see that Fidesz, which was the party run by a guy called Viktor Orban, gradually becoming a populist radical right party and transforming itself from what was, you know, a reasonably kind of liberal centre-right party a couple of decades ago.

Explain that to me.

Tim Bale is Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London, and he told the Associated Press Mr Farage has taken quite a gamble.

Two things.

The first is it allows him to frame a story that was very awkward for him in classic populist terms by suggesting that somehow it's him versus the establishment.

And secondly, it allows him to distract from the details of that story and those allegations.

Actually, it will only allow him to do that temporarily, because if he does make it back into Parliament as the new MP for Clacton, the parliamentary committee, Standards Commissioners investigation will simply restart where it left off.

The risks are that he is seen not necessarily by the voters of Clapton, but by voters as a whole as a self-pitying, angry guy on an ego trip.

who is determined to distract people from some awkward facts about the kind of money he has taken and that he is making.

This seems to come very much from the Donald Trump playbook.

Can you identify what that is if you agree with that statement?

I think you do have to point to the economy as being a problem.

Uh, we have very slow growth in this country, very low productivity.

Uh, when you add to that the financial crash and obviously the effects of Brexit, uh, you have an economy that just isn't generating the revenue that would allow government to, uh, meet some of the pledges that it's made and some of the promises that it's, uh, either made explicitly or at least hinted at Uh, and I think the failure to deliver in that sense has been a problem for politicians.

I also think politicians, to be honest, are guilty of making promises that they can't possibly keep.

The most obvious example of that would have been what the conservatives were saying about immigration, particularly when it came to stopping the boats, quote, unquote.

Uh, that was never going to be something that Rishi Sunak, for example, could do.

Is that something that you agree with, and how do you deal with it?

The pressure remains similar, right? And a different leadership there.

Yeah, I think a lot of what David said makes sense, actually.

And I should say I'm also a New Zealander as well as a Brit.

So I've got some familiarity with the system as well.

I would say that the core problem for British politicians and indeed, you know, politicians in many other countries is that the rate of growth has slowed so considerably over the last 10 to 20 years.

And in Britain, we have a particular problem as well with productivity.

And that makes government very, very difficult.

Big of the challenges, Tim, if you look at the rise of the Reform UK, and also in a sense, you know, the fall probably of the two major parties, you know, Labour's party, the Conservatives, what do you make of it? Is that somehow the two-party system breaking down here?

So, how do we stop that?

Well, to some extent people might argue that we've come full circle in the sense that, uh, the racism on display, uh, now, uh, has more in common with perhaps what we saw in the 1970s and, and 1980s when we had the National Front, uh, and then the BNP.

Look, I don't think we want to paint too bleak a picture of the UK, because if you look at the research on public opinion and, uh, coming from, for example, the, you know, uh, the NatCen, uh, British Social Attitudes survey, actually the number of people who discriminate on the grounds of race who have very strong racial prejudices have s- really, uh, shrunk over time.

There's a, a small hardcore of people, maybe somewhere between 5 and 10% of people who have still those what you might call antediluvian attitudes, those very ethno nationalist attitudes, who believe that you can only be a British, uh, person if you are white.

Uh, the majority of people, I think, have moved on from that.

Uh, but those people, you know, they represent a, a certain section of the community.

They do need to be represented politically, and clearly there are some politicians willing to do that.

Where's the failure here to have learnt lessons? I mean, is there a failure, or is this simply the way we police in the UK?

They're coming, of course-

And it's prompted the Conservative Party to talk in very, very tough terms about trying to do something about that situation, and that, in part, lost the Conservative Party the election in twenty twenty-four.

But we then got a Labour government which has consistently hardened its line on immigration and asylum, and I think without Nigel Farage, you'd have to say that although, you know, you might have seen some movement in that direction, you wouldn't have seen quite the kind of hysterical rhetoric around the, the issue and nor would you have seen policy move so fast.

In some ways, the United States of America is the paradigmatic example of, uh, a party which has been, if you like, captured from the inside by the populist radical right.

What you had was a series of movements, beginning with the Tea Party and then the kind of MAGA movement, which, if you like, ate the host, the Republican Party, uh, from the inside.

And you now have a situation in which essentially the populist radical right is running the Republican Party.

But I don't think that is completely unusual.

So if I was a lobby group, if I was a vested interest, if I had money to burn and wanted to donate it to a political party, it seems like this could be a pretty good way to get what I was after in politics, right?

How much pressure, uh, is he going to be coming under to resign, and, and what do you think happens now for him?

Well, there will be people both within the parliamentary party, and I suspect also in the grassroots of the Labour Party, who will, uh, explicitly call for him to go.

I'm not sure, however, that actually that will result in him either resigning or being challenged, uh, anytime soon.

Uh, and that is because among Labour MPs, they're not really sure that there's anybody currently in the House of Commons who could actually replace Keir Starmer and make the government more popular.

And to be honest, there's also quite a lot of disagreement about the strategy, uh, that any new leader would follow.

How different would it be from what Keir Starmer, uh, has been doing since 2024? There are fears on the right of the Labour Party that if they elect someone too left-wing, then the bond markets will punish the government.

Uh, there are fears, uh, on the left that if they elect someone too right-wing, uh, then they will end up, uh, taking a hard line on immigration, which has alienated so many of their left liberal supporters and seen them hare off towards the Greens.

Uh, it looked to me like you wanted to add to it, so go ahead.

How much pressure, uh, is he going to be coming under to resign, and, and what do you think happens now for him?

him?Well, there will be people both within the parliamentary party, and I suspect also in the grassroots of the Labor Party, who will, uh, explicitly call for him to go.

I'm not sure, however, that actually that will result in him either resigning or being challenged, uh, any time soon.

Uh, and that is because among Labor MPs, they're not really sure that there's anybody currently in the House of Commons who could actually replace Keir Starmer and make the government more popular.

And to be honest, there's also quite a lot of disagreement about the strategy, uh, that any new leader would follow.

How different would it be from what Keir Starmer, uh, has been doing since 2024? There are fears on the right of the Labor Party that if they elect someone too left wing, then the bond markets will punish the government.

Uh, there are fears, uh, on the left that if they elect someone too right wing, uh, then they will end up, uh, taking a hard line on immigration, which has alienated so many of their left liberal supporters and seen them hare off towards the greens.

Uh, it looked to me like you wanted to add to it, so go ahead.

Tim Bale is a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, and says there's a lot of controversy around the visit

The upside is that perhaps it will improve relationships between the two governments.

Uh, it could actually cause quite a lot of embarrassment for the King himself

Do you think this visit carries more risk than potential benefit?

There is quite a lot of risk.

Uh, Donald Trump has become more, uh, and more unpredictable, uh, so he could say something which embarrasses the, the King and, uh, the Queen [trumpet music]

Do you?

Uh, I mean, I think it depends on whether we are talking about a pact before an election or some kind of stand down agreement.

It might be a nod and a wink, it might be some kind of formal arrangement, or whether we're talking about a coalition after an election, in which case I think that is much more likely.

I think given the Conservatives' traditional will to power, if you like, if they were to find themselves, uh, looking at a situation which the only alternative, um, for them to get into government would be to do some kind of deal with Reform UK, I have no doubt whatsoever that they would go for it.

Now, is that unusual?

Um, it, it is, um, something we have seen before.

I mean, there is this huge question really for academics, it's long been around a-as to whether actually it's the leader or the party more generally that makes a difference to people's vote.

It is possible for leaders to pull up parties' votes, uh, a little bit, but normally, actually, the, the, the party, more generally, and the brand of the party, uh, is, you know, possibly more important than the leader.