So what does this tell us about relations with Russia more than four years into the war in Ukraine? Well, Tim Ash is an economist and senior strategist at Blue Bay Asset Management.

Europe has struggled with the Trump administration approach to Russia, certainly in his second term in office.

And often, I guess, Trump's signal that he just wants to get back to business as usual or normal with Russia and make big deals with Russia if he can.

And I guess this is all part of that.

But as you said, Europe feels very, very uncomfortable about this.

I mean, on the day that the Germans announced the Leipzig, well, attempted attacks on airplanes in Germany, I think the Europeans are feeling very uncomfortable with this, you know, being in the same room as the Germans.

The Russian finance minister, while his state continues to attack Ukraine and continues to wage asymmetric warfare against Europe.

The Russian and Chinese, I mean, their attentions there, they were vying

The question, Tim, is how much farther could it fall? And if it stays around 65 or indeed does it drop to $50, what are the implications for the economy?

Okay, well, I think I need to tell you a little story here to give some perspective.

There's a lot of focus on the fact that the Russian economy has been very durable under the sanctions regime, right? We're four and a half years odd into this war.

And lots of criticism of sanctions, they're not working.

But actually, what was interesting... was late 25, early 26, there was lots of evidence that actually sanctions were beginning to work in terms of the Euro's oil price discount was running at 30%.

So you mentioned the current Euro's oil price, but actually in late 25, early 26, it was about $40 a barrel.

We saw really significant fiscal deterioration, actually balance of payments deterioration late 25, early 26.

You know, is that a ruble collapse plus, I don't know, a yield spike or a different combination? What is the combination that worries you most?

And

now suddenly Erdogan is in Riyadh, he's the guest of the Crown Prince, he's also jetting off to Cairo.

I mean, we had back-to-back trips by Erdogan to both Saudi Arabia and Cairo.

and the relationship between the Egyptian administration and Edouan is suddenly rosy again, which is pretty extraordinary.

The Egyptian administration didn't particularly like Erdogan's push and support for the Muslim Brotherhood movement and political Islam in particular.

But all that seems to have been set aside.

And I guess the reasons for that are numerous, but particularly concern about US policy.

spiking up i believe as the saturation of ukrainian drones intensifies and that's not really covered so much in the media but ukraine is actually increasing its drone capabilities and effectiveness um and one assumes, lowering the ratio of casualties to... or improving the ratio of casualties to Russia, but we don't have those sort of figures.