Yeah.

I do wonder whether one of the mega political trends that we might see play out over the next decade is if...

I mean, Labour and National will again find some way of lifting their polling.

I do think at some point those parties are going to become more popular again.

But I do wonder whether the era of National and Labour stably being high 30s, 40s parties, that might be gone.

The era of their utter dominance might be over.

And I think because of that, there is a chance that maybe you do see more bipartisanship.

That's about, could keep you a couple of Ks down the road on petrol anyway.

[laughs]

I, I can't, I can't imagine, uh, you know, he's, he's worked, uh, very hard to be prime minister, and I can't imagine that, that for, for, for pride, um, he would go into opposition rather than pick up the phone.

He'll, he'll pick up the phone.

I, and I personally think, I mean, I was, uh, agreeing with Peter, um, before about the, the, the, the some of the issues around the substance of Opportunity, but I do think multiple party government makes you a better major party.

And I think some of the s-strengths of, uh...

I think our best MMP governments, uh, were the Clark and, um, Key, um, governments, and I think one of the strengths of those governments were Clark and Key's ability to build broad coalitions to the left and the right, and it me- it ma- it, it allowed them to govern more flexibly, um, because they had, they had places to go.

And, and I think one of the flaws of this government, and I think the flaw of, um, the Ardern, um, the second term of the Ardern government, is that they could only go to their extreme.

Come on, Thomas, give us your hots and nots for the week.

What do you make of the Nat's car parking requirements U-turn?

Well, I th- I think it's a bit of a belated overture to Auckland homeowners and to homeowners, uh, in general.

You know, this, this ...

We have gone through a, a massive kind of property, uh, property crash.

Uh, and these intensification changes that have been started under Labor and continued under National have been controversial.

Uh, some people love them, some people hate them.

Uh, but the people who hate them tend to be National Party voters, and the Nat so far have said, um, "Stuff you," to those people.

So why didn't they do this earlier? Because this does seem like a common sense thing.

What do you make of the Nats' car parking requirements U-turn?

Well, I th- I think it's a bit of a belated overture to Auckland homeowners and to homeowners, uh, in general.

You know, this, this ...

We have gone through a, a massive kind of property, uh, property crash.

Uh, and these intensification changes that have been started under Labour and continued under National have been controversial.

Uh, some people love them, some people hate them.

Uh, but the people who hate them tend to be National Party voters, and the Nats so far have said, um, stuff you to those people.

So why didn't they do this earlier? Because this does seem like a common sense thing.

So why didn't they do this earlier? Because this does seem like a common sense thing.

It does.

I think they got a wee bit high on their own supply in terms of the intensification rules.

These were brought in, I think, in 2020 under Labour, this rule change was brought in and the Nats sort of like pledged themselves to it.

We were in the middle of that house price bubble.

But of course, as the intensification has rolled out, I mean, a lot of these developments are not the prettiest things in the world.

Property prices have crashed.

Hey, I am surprised, we're just discussing this on the show, I am surprised that Orini Kaipara does not have the political smarts to realise you don't put a picture of yourself with the mongrel mob up in a tight election like this.

Did you see the poll that has been given to me, and it, it seems to have come actually circuitously via the, um, Parents' Alliance, that show that most parents, most voters actually support keeping as compulsion the one hour of reading, writing, and maths a year, uh, for, for the kids at the moment.

Yeah, very, I mean, very, very interesting that.

I mean, uh, L- Labor, I, I, I personally think Chris Hipkins won that debate last week.

The only area where, where Christopher Luxon was clearly ahead, I think, uh, was clearly, um, was education.

The Nats are really doing quite well on education.

Erica Stanford's a good minister.

And that, that, that remark, um, from Hipkins reve- reverting back to allowing the schools greater autonomy over that one hour, um, that one-hour policy seems to have g- gone down like a, a cup of cold sick.

Yeah.

Did you see the poll that has been given to me, and it, it seems to have come actually circuitously via the, um, Parents' Alliance, that show that most parents, most voters actually support keeping as compulsion the one hour of reading, writing, and maths a year, uh, for, for the kids at the moment.

Yeah, very, I mean, very, very interesting that.

I mean, uh, L- Labor, I, I, I personally think Chris Hipkins won that debate last week.

The only area where, where Christopher Luxon was clearly ahead, I think o- it was clearly, um, was education.

The Nets are really doing quite well on education.

Erica Stanford's a good minister.

And that, that, that remark, um, from Hipkins reve- reverting back to allowing the schools greater autonomy over that one hour, um, that one hour policy seems to have g- gone down like a, a cup of cold sick.

Yeah.

But let me-

One, one thing I found interesting as well is the s- the timing of it, because we had the first leaders debate last week with TVNZ, and then we've got one, uh, our one coming up this week, and it's coming in the middle of those.

Because last week, Jac Tame had to take discussion of, like, fiscal holes off the table because everything that came up, Luxon would say to Hipkins, "You-- there are holes in your numbers." And then Hipkins would say, "Well, you even don't even have any numbers yet." Um, so yeah, how do you think that having this all out on the table now is gonna affect Winston's debate? Yes.

I thought that was a flaw in National's planning.

Um, having Labor have, have theirs come out early, one of the sort of the bouquets to give out to, to political parties is the fact that Labor got theirs out, got their fiscal plan out within days of the pre-election economic and fiscal update.

Now, both of them are out.

Uh, we have, uh, our debate on Wednesday night, uh, with Ryan Bridge moderating.

So we got a y- a yes from Barbara Edmonds.

Does a poll like the one that came out this morning start the press gallery writing up stories calling for Chris Hipkins to step down? Or does it start you asking questions in the corridors about caucus satisfaction? Is it a chicken and egg thing?

It is.

We're certainly at the beginning of that process.

So about a month ago, we had almost exactly these are monthly polls.

So the last poll had Labour on 27 and a bit, and that was very low for Labour.

It was quite a crash because they had been polling in the low to mid 30s.

Labour said that there was a rogue poll, and rogue polls happen from time to time, and that seemed...

Do you think in part it's because the left and centre-left voters have more choices?

Like the struggling Kiwi mums who need support going without it

There are so many different reasons for this, so the, the rule of thumb is that the number of mothers who are expected to experience significant mental health distress during the perinatal period is estimated to be about 15%.

Now, about a third of that 15% are not getting the support they need.

It varies a lot by region, and this is, this is the reason, one of the reasons why Health New Zealand was created back during the, the Labor government's health reforms, is to end this postcode lottery of care.

And maternal mental health is just like so many other conditions where where you live can have a big impact on the quality of care that you receive.

So Auckland and, and Christchurch have these things called mother and baby units, which means that if you need to be taken into care, you can stay with your newborn child during your care, uh, which is international best practice.

People think that it's the best way of getting treated and getting better to be able to do that.

Tell us about her experience.

How'd he shore it up?

Yeah.

Well, listen, I mean, well, we were talking yesterday, and as of yesterday, I think I spoke to you, at that point, we hadn't heard from Simeon Brown, who was sick, uh, so maybe that was him, him being sick, but we hadn't heard from Louise Upston, Paul Goldsmith, Simon Watts, and Chris Penk, a name which obviously carries a bit of added significance right now because Chris Penk very clearly didn't have, uh, confidence in Christopher Luxon.

He was the one who launched that challenge.

Something clearly happened as we spoke at 5:00.

I went to the airport immediately after we spoke, uh, and I s- I saw the last of the National MPs coming in.

M- the, a large bulk of National's MPs, they live in Auckland, so they were coming in on those late flights.

Was Chris Penk, who has now taken the fall, doing this on his own behalf, or was he doing this for Erica Stanford?

How'd he shore it up?

Yeah, well, look, I mean, well, we were talking yesterday, and as of yesterday, I think I spoke to you, at that point, we hadn't heard from Simeon Brown, who was sick.

Uh, so maybe that was him had been sick, but we hadn't heard from Louise Upston, Paul Goldsmith, Simon Watts, and Chris Penk, a name which obviously carries a bit of added significance right now because Chris Penk very clearly didn't have, uh, confidence in Christopher Luxon.

He was the one who launched that challenge.

Something clearly happened as we spoke at 5:00.

I went to the airport immediately after we spoke, uh, and I, I saw the last of the National MPs coming in.

M- the, a large bulk of National's MPs, they live in Auckland.

Was Chris Penk, who has now taken the fall, doing this on his own behalf, or was he doing this for Erica Stanford?

Does Luxon have the numbers to survive?

Very difficult to tell at this stage.

Um, it is interesting...

O- obviously, last time this happened, um, there were a lot of very early, uh, public proclamations of support.

Um, and I think, you know, as we're, as we're currently speaking, um, Erica Stanford hasn't obviously, uh, voiced support for Christopher Luxon.

Chris Bishop interestingly did do it at that stand-up this morning, but that was before Luxon called this caucus meeting.

Um, I'm not sure whether, um, Chris Bishop has, has pledged support since that, that confidence vote was called.

What do you think?

Does Luxon have the numbers to survive?

Very difficult to tell at this stage.

Um, it is interesting...

O- obviously, last time this happened, um, there were a lot of very early, uh, public proclamations of support.

Um, and I think, you know, as we're, as we're currently speaking, um, Erica Stanford has, um, obviously, uh, voiced support for Christopher Luxon.

Chris Bishop, interestingly, did do a, a stand-up this morning, but that was before Luxon called this caucus meeting.

Um, I'm not sure whether, um, Chris Bishop has p- has pledged support since that, that confidence vote was called.

What do you think?

What stands out to you?

Yes, a lot there from the Greens.

The Greens just dumped their 43-page manifesto at their AGM, as you said, basically their policy bible for the election.

So there's some stuff in there that we know about.

You've got the Green Party super-rich tax, a form of wealth tax, which we were aware of.

That morning they talked about that moratorium on the construction of new data centres.

So that would be a one-year pause on the construction of new data centres just while the regulation of those catches up.

On that data centre pause, do you think there's an issue with regulation, that regulation actually hasn't caught up and perhaps the government needs to move a bit faster when it comes to AI and data centres in general?

What do you think of that, Thomas? Where does the blame lie?

I think it's a bit of both.

The difficult thing about the economy at the moment is that for sort of our lifetimes, it is going to be very difficult to use the economy to your advantage when you're in government.

Nicola Willis is talking ad nauseum about the fact that she has to write a cheque every year for about $10 billion to service the interest on our debt.

Whoever is in government, Labour or National, has to write that cheque and will have to write that cheque for the foreseeable future every year.

That really limits your options significantly.

in terms of making some attractive spending announcements that you didn't have to do 10 years ago.

And Christopher Luxon is not a self-doubter.

What do you think of that, Thomas? Where does the blame lie?

I think it's a bit of both.

The difficult thing about the economy at the moment is that for sort of our lifetimes, it is going to be very difficult to use the economy to your advantage when you're in government.

Nicola Willis is talking ad nauseum about the fact that she has to write a cheque every year for about $10 billion to service the interest on our debt.

Whoever is in government, Labour or National, has to write that cheque and will have to write that cheque for the foreseeable future every year.

That really limits your options significantly.

in terms of making some attractive spending announcements that you didn't have to do 10 years ago.

And Christopher Luxon is not a self-doubter.

Michael Laws, is this surprising? Were you surprised that he's going to stand for New Zealand first? I wasn't.

The rumours have been leaking out about that for weeks, months.

And this week it seemed very obvious that something was happening.

It happened this morning.

It is an interesting return to frontline politics for Mr Laws.

He's been a councillor for a number of years now and obviously a mayor at one point as well.

It is an interesting selection because it does say a lot about the party that New Zealand First – New Zealand First changes a lot.

Am I close or not? I'm happy to be wrong.

How can that be justified?

Well, no, well, let me speak to that.

The minister trawled through 350,000 cases, and so far, since the beginning of this debate over the last couple of months, only three examples, three out of 350,000, where the minister says he's not happy.

And in that example, I've done the calculations in my own mind, from the facts that I have been given by the minister so far, I cannot see it possible that a payment of 14,000 could be made in that.

The absolute maximum that could have been paid in that was €1,600.

And if the minister has those details, then the minister can redact them and give them to us, because the minister has not given the Law Society any of the empirical data that he's operating on.

And out of 350,000 cases, the minister has said that there are-

Is there a flat fee, uh, that, that would, would convince you to change your mind tomorrow and, and, and not, uh, withdraw your services from the, the, the legal aid, um, uh, scheme? Is there, uh, is there m- money that the minister could put on the table that would encourage you to, to think differently?

That's important as well because, um, you know, u- the unemployment rate between, what, 15-year-olds and 24-year-olds have, has been on a s- in a steady, uh, incline, I suppose, in recent years.

Yeah, it is.

Um, so during the pandemic, uh, we had one quarter where it was very high.

You know, but as, as we, we all remember, um, things got very bad, and then they got very good [chuckles] um, during the pandemic, largely thanks to a lot of the spending that was going on.

Um, things have started to tick back up again, so we have a very high, um, NEET rate, which is called the not in education, employment or training, which is the, the youth unemployment rate, effectively.

That's over 15% now, uh, which is the highest it's been for some time.

You'd have to go back...

But Luxon seems to be still not 100% sure.

But it's really tough getting the information you need to do a compare, contrast and analysis, isn't it?

Yes, yes, it is.

And I'm glad you had a little bit of fun because the purpose of this is just to give people a chance to make it add up themselves.

And once you actually, I think once you see, and if you, you know, just for some shame, the self-promotion, if you go onto the Herald website and find it, you can just see how difficult it is to make the spending promises, which are over $20 billion, match the revenue promises.

And so far, Labour's promised...

Only $2.8 billion worth of new revenue, that's from that capital gains tax.

And obviously there's over $20 billion worth of spending.

How did you get

So that was going to be one of my questions, probably my first question to Chloe, actually, was how does what is being announced this afternoon compare to the alternative budget that they announced last year, which did include new taxes?

Yes, so there are still quite a few new taxes, but on the whole, it's much smaller than last year's policy.

It seems like they've just dialed it back a wee bit.

I think last year's policy was scrutinised for the fact that it was pretty heavy on new taxes, $88 billion worth of new taxes.

This one's about $32 billion from what we can we've been able to add up.

So, on the whole, it's much smaller.

Last year's wealth tax triggered at about $2 million of net assets, I believe, and this year's one triggers at $10 million.

Could you see them working with Labour on policies like this, with policies like this? I

That's New Zealand Herald political editor Thomas Coghlan, and he's talking to me about the true costs, the benefits, and the pitfalls of this policy, including the vital question: Does the maths add up?

So Labor's modeled this using analysis that was done, uh, by Auckland Transport a little while ago about a proposed fare cap up there.

They think it will cost $65 million a year, which a lot of people have thought is on the sunny side, but, but it might be sort of in the, in the ballpark.

The big problem is where that money is coming from, and it's coming from something called the National Land Transport Fund.

Uh, it is a fund that is full of the money that you pay when you fill up your car or you pay your road user charges or you get your vehicle registered.

Uh, it's seven odd billion dollars a year spent from the fund, and the, the problem is that the fu- [laughs] the fund is essentially very much over-pledged, vastly over-pledged.

And about 10 years ago, the fund more or less paid for itself, so you would spend the National Land Transport Fund on some public transport subsidies.

But really, is that enough people to sway an election?

What do you think of the social housing changes?

Well, [sighs] look, they're gonna be controversial.

Like, my, my, my top line is, um, is the road to good intentions is paved with hell.

Uh, because I think the long term, the long, the long goal here is, is probably a good one.

Get the private rental market to work, save the government money.

Uh, you know, the, the, some of the numbers here are $5 billion with support, uh, a year being paid out and, uh, you know, w- unaffordable.

Um, but of course, in the interim, uh, 84,000 households in some form of social housing are gonna have their costs increased by an average of $31 a week, um, next year.

Is that what's going on here?

Has he been forced to release the statement backing up his prime minister?

It is suspicious, and it would appear that the Prime Minister's office has gotten involved.

Certainly the statement came from them.

It was also unusual that last night The Post, another media outlet, they did get in touch with Stuart Smith, and last night he told them that he was trying to get to Wellington.

He had struggled to get to Wellington because the weather is pretty dire at the moment and that he intended to get to Wellington this morning.

We had someone at the airport this morning from six o'clock.

He didn't get in.

Okay, so what is your understanding? Were there five of these troublemakers like the Prime Minister's claimed or more?