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Theodore Keeping

Theodore Keeping

Jul 30, 2026

5:43
... on Thursday?
5:44
So they are driven by very, very similar weather.
5:48
The scale is, is completely different, but that's not to say that the UK is unlikely to see, uh, really, really devastating wildfires, uh, even this summer.
5:58
So what ha- happened in the Spanish and French ... fires is we saw a relatively dry, sorry, relatively moist winter followed by a, a rapid onset of really dry conditions in, in the summer, particularly, uh, at that kind of surface.
6:14
And we've seen the same thing in the UK with a, a very, you know, quite severe drought developing across England and Wales.
6:22
And when you compound that with a heat wave, which we're obviously now-

8 MINS LATER

14:10
Um, Theodore, when we're fighting fires, I mean, is water kind of all we've got really? Although I know you've talked about you can create fire breaks by chopping down some vegetation kind of in advance of the fire getting there.
14:21
For the, for the UK scale, water is super important because often what we're dealing with at this time of year are relatively, particularly at the outbreak stage, a relatively small grass fire or even an agricultural fire.
14:11
Tell us about what you did and what, what you've learned.
14:13
Yeah, that's absolutely right.
14:15
So we used a metric called wet bulb globe temperature, which is basically a metric for heat stress that accounts for temperature and humidity, uh, and basically the extent to which the body feels, uh, really hot conditions in an indoor environment.
14:33
And, uh, what we found is that looking at the different game times, that the likelihood of extreme heat, extreme humid heat, was really quite high, and that also there has been quite a dramatic shift since the last US World Cup back in 1994.
15:57
And it sounds to me like, you know, a one in thirty-seven chance on an individual game is perfectly reasonable.
16:05
A one in thirty-seven chance i-is pretty low.
16:07
The fact is there are one hundred and four games being played this World Cup.
16:11
So if you add up all the probabilities across all those games, you actually reach a, a, a pretty high likelihood of at least one or even multiple games exceeding that threshold.

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