Right.

So, like, you're going to see an extra, extra defender in the box just more often, uh, because of that.

But there's also this, this situation that's happening with, with some of the, the better defensive coordinators, uh, especially the ones that really like to blitz, uh, like, like Brian Flores and, uh, you know, e- even Todd Bowles last night against the Cowboys where they, the, the, these defenses are putting six defenders on the, the line of scrimmage a lot, and then they, they only might end up only rushing four in, in a lot of instances and dropping two out.

But because the quarterback is under center, and especially if it's a play-action pass where they have to turn their back to the defense, you're hoping that by the time the quarterback turns his head back around and, and is facing forward-

Mm-hmm

... as many tight ends as, as they have this season.

You know, it makes sense given that Eric Ebron was, was injured for them all of last year, and, and he, and he's back this year.

Um, but they're doing a lot of two tight end sets, and I, I really like how it, it's, it's working for them given, uh, you know, Josh Bachf is, is injured as their, their normal wide receiver three in 11 personnel, so they can go to this, this 12 personnel look and just have Chase and Higgins as the two outside receivers and, and really stress the defenses of, of, you know, if they, if they keep six in protection and, and keep the, the pocket cleaner for Burrow-

One game has lots of unique characteristics.

Yeah, no, it's a very fair point to bring up.

Maybe I am overreacting to week one.

When I think about week one performance in general, some of the overlying stats, like a team's EPA per play or their success rate, is definitely noisier than I think the schematic principles that they actually showed in week one because you just have a lot more control over the scheme that you're putting out there.

And so it's a combination to me of this offseason, the Ravens had...

many press conferences where they talked about going under center more.

So my prior on how much under center they were going to use this year, the percentage of it rose.

Tej, which was the most impressive win of the weekend and why was it San Francisco? Yeah.

Are there any other coaches that you're looking at who you do have priors on, who we do have seen before, where things might look differently for them? Any coach like that come to mind? Like, for example, Drew Petzig in Detroit? Yeah.

Yeah, we probably should talk about Petsing.

I think he's one of the most important people in the league this year in terms of the way that he calls this Lions offense.

We'll have these cascading effects across the NFC North and the NFC.

We saw with Petsing, one of the things that I really liked from what I saw from him in Arizona was they go into these multiple tight end sets a lot.

But they have a really high pass rate out of those sets.

So when I came on here a couple weeks ago, I talked a lot about if you can get the defense to think that you're going to run the ball and you can pass against that sort of defense, it's super advantageous for the offense.

Do you see a potential change in how Minter might be running things from Los Angeles to Baltimore?

Number four, where does Tate have them?

I have them fourth as well.

And for a lot of the points that Sean brought up there where I just think that the talent on this defensive roster is unbelievable.

You know, everywhere except safety, basically.

But like the middle of the defensive line can just like rush the pocket for these opposing quarterbacks.

Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Jomo.

I'm just really excited about another year of that group together.

Explain yourself, Tej.

So the mystery for you is, well, why is that, do you think? And also, how do the Minnesota Vikings avoid this fate with Kyler Murray?

I think that's a great question to bring up because you mentioned that 2021 season where Kyler Murray looked like the MVP of the league through the first half of that season, and then in the second half of that year, uh, it did not look even [laughs] close to what it looked like at the beginning.

And that has kind of been a trend for him throughout his career, where we've seen stretches of six to eight weeks where he's looked really, really good, but he hasn't really been able to put together for a full season of all-pro, top five level quarterback play.

And what I think that comes down to with Kyler Murray is, is two things.

One is being a smaller quarterback, when he gets nicked up and he has some sort of nagging shoulder injury, or his legs just aren't as fresh, uh, later into the season, it's just a lot harder for these smaller quarterbacks to overcome that.

I think we see that every year with Baker Mayfield as well, where first half of the season, Baker Mayfield looks awesome.

He, he has some sort of injury and he plays through it and it, it doesn't look like that in the second half.

When we're talking about quarterbacks in general, how do we try to quantify the impact of everything around a quarterback and what it can mean to their success when they've been good at times and not so good at times like Kyler has?

So the mystery for you is, well, why is that, do you think? And also, how did the Minnesota Vikings avoid this fate with Kyler Murray?

I think that's a great question to bring up because you mentioned that 2021 season where Kyler Murray looked like the MVP of the league through the first half of that season.

And then in the second half of that year, it did not look even close to what it looked like at the beginning.

And that has kind of been a trend for him throughout his career, where we've seen stretches of six to eight weeks where he's looked really, really good, but he hasn't really been able to put together for a full season of all pro top five level quarterback play.

And what I think that comes down to with Kyler Murray is two things.

One is being a smaller quarterback when he gets nicked up and he has some sort of nagging shoulder injury or his legs just aren't as fresh later into the season.

It's just a lot harder for these smaller quarterbacks to overcome that.

When we're talking about quarterbacks in general, how do we try to quantify the impact of everything around a quarterback and what it can mean to their success when they've been good at times and not so good at times like Kyler has?

Mm-hmm

... very special type of receiver that, um, can be c- that has, like, really expanded his route tree, can be used in a variety of ways.

Obviously, you still have Amon-Ra St.

Brown, and then we talked about the two tight end stuff, uh, throughout the show.

It's like, you have Sam LaPorta and Brock Wright as your two tight ends, um, you know, that, that should b- allow, uh, new offensive coordinator, Drew Petszng, to, to do a lot of personnel diversity there, uh, where they can go 11 personnel, 12 personnel, and, and even 13 personnel if they're, if they're comfortable with it.

So all that stuff together just makes me, like, ex- Very excited about the Lions offense.

And then on the, on the defensive side of things, um, I think that, you know, there, there definitely, like, questions and concerns about the defense.

Mm-hmm.

I talk with Tej Seth, NFL analytics expert, about the Chicago Bears at Bet Bash.

Yeah, I'm really excited to watch the Bears again this year.

You and I both know being from the Michigan area that Ben Johnson was transformative to the Lions offense for the years that he was there in getting Jared Goff in a good spot and really scheming up players like Amon Ross, St.

Brown and Sam Laporta.

And now we've seen that transform over to the bears where he put together a super impressive run scheme last season where he got running backs and deandre swift and kyle menungai who are not thought of as very high rated running backs with really efficient rushing performances all across the year the offensive line was blocking well but ben johnson's scheme really just helped that run game and he also seemed to help Caleb Williams go from the highest sack rate quarterback in the league his rookie year to one of the lowest sack rate quarterbacks in the league his second year that seemed to be a strong point of emphasis for the Bears offense and now they've added weapons like Luther Burden and Colston Loveland that are also going into their second years and I'm just really excited about their offense this year because of all those pieces.

as a rookie with his bad ball rate he wasn't really good at anything else but like he did not throw the football in the dangerous situations that went up a little bit this second season this past year so do you think that's part of you know was ben johnson like i want you i want you to like not take a sack even if you kind of have to maybe throw the ball somewhere you don't quite want to throw it do you think that's part of how he's coaching him up

I definitely think so.

I think that when you look at what Ben Johnson emphasizes in his view of how he wants an offense to operate, the number one thing he tries to focus on is explosive play rate, it seems, from the way that he calls his offense and some of the things he says in his press conference.

With the NFL salary cap soaring, does how much a team pays a free agent not matter as much as in the past because the cap is going up at such a high rate?

Yeah, I mean, the, the cap usually does go up, ah, about eight percent every year, and, and, you know, as that, as that compounds, we're, we're really seeing a, a big growth period in, in terms of the cap there.

Um, I think when it comes to spending on big player-- or, or, ah, big, big time players in free agency, something that we usually talk about, ah, like we were talking about with the draft conversation there is, is the surplus value of a player.

How much production are they gonna give you relative to their contract? And so when you look at someone like Jalen Phillips, ah, you know, who the Commanders were, were most likely going after, he's probably someone who will perform at, like, a twenty-five to thirty million, ah, dollar a year amount, and he's getting paid thirty million dollars a year.

So you get a slight negative surplus value on there, but you get a really good player, which you have to, to kind of balance there as well.

Um, but then when it comes to, like, actually paying those players on the cap, I think when, when you have a quarterback on a rookie contract, it really allows you to, to be a, a, a much bigger spender in free agency and, and get those players on your roster.

You don't have to worry about that surplus value as much.

What is behind the resurgence of under center formations in the NFL?