A scientist trying to understand the creative side.

Yeah.

Which, which, well, it's strange, 'cause my father's father, Frank, um, HG's younger son, actually was an art director in the British film business, but, um, but not terribly successful.

[laughs] And, uh, so, uh, you know, uh, and it, it's strange, it never occurred to me to go into the film business.

Literally not at all.

I, I, I went through art college.

Uh, didn't really know what I was gonna do.

[laughs]

So what do you expect and what do markets expect?

That's right.

I think everything has to be heavily caveated on the fact that we're assuming here in the base case that energy follows the futures curve.

And as I said before, a lot can go wrong.

But if it does, the peak of inflation will probably be about half a percentage point below where we previously thought, peaking at around 3.4, something like that around the turn of the year.

Now, if the peak in inflation is lower, the risks of second round effects on wages and then prices are lower, and the indirect effects of energy through food prices and non-labor costs on services, things like that, that should be lower too.

So this should give the central banks a bit more confidence to be a bit more dovish.

What does that mean and what could the consequences be?

So what do you expect and what do markets expect?

That's right.

I think everything has to be heavily caveated on the fact that we're assuming here in the base case that energy follows the futures curve.

And as I said before, a lot can go wrong.

But if it does, the peak of inflation will probably be about half a percentage point below where we previously thought.

peaking at around 3.4 something like that around the turn of the year now if the peak in inflation is lower the risks of second round effects on wages and then prices are lower and the indirect effects of energy through food prices and non-labor costs on services things like that that should be lower too so this should give the central banks a bit more confident to be a bit more dovish So what I'm expecting is that by the time it gets to the sharp end of the next decisions, be that September or December, if energy has followed the futures curve, it will probably be projecting inflation to be sub-target.

Now, given the lags in monetary policy, if you then hike rates back end of the year, it's not going to be until mid-2028 before that has peak effects.

What does that mean and what could the consequences be?