And I was horrified to read that Americans average three hamburgers a week per person.

Libby, that's a quiet week for them.

No, do not stand between an American and their hamburger.

And I guess what we've seen and we continue to see is this love affair with protein across America.

And it's been going on now for several years, driven by many, many factors.

But, you know, one of them is the influence of GLP-1 drugs.

So this weight loss drugs thing.

We're in our own herd rebuild.

Yes,

please.

So you realize that Australia shipped all of 700 metric tons to India last year, of which two-thirds was mutton and half of the mutton was manufactured.

It's a very small market, minute, that is incredibly price sensitive.

The cost of a slaughterman in India is $200 a month to work.

So you're up against a very cost competitive environment.

Lastly, India produces more mutton and lamb than Australia does and so does New Zealand.

When you are travelling around the world on the beef front though, Simon, what are you seeing in terms of opportunities for New Zealand beef?

Why is Uruguay willing to let go some of its quota?

The original proposal with Uruguay, between Brazil and Uruguay, was that there would be an exchange.

And that exchange would involve access, additional access for Uruguay into the EU.

In the case of Australia, I believe there'd be a real unwillingness to give up any access that we have into certain markets.

And I think the particular market they've got interest in is North America, the US market.

of which we have 449,000 tonnes accessed this year, and next year we actually become quota-free.

But that is a very coveted market and important to us, and anything that would in any way compromise that access I think would not be welcome amongst Australian exporters.

Is this safeguard system that China has set up, does it have legs or do you think it's got a shorter shelf life?

Why is Uruguay willing to let go some of its quota?

The original proposal with Uruguay, between Brazil and Uruguay, was that there would be an exchange and that exchange would involve access, additional access for Uruguay into the EU.

In the case of Australia, I believe there'd be a real unwillingness to give up any access that we have into certain markets.

And I think the particular market they've got interest in is North America, the US market.

of which we have 449,000 tonnes access this year.

And next year, we actually become quota free.

But that is a very coveted market and important to us.

If a deal is struck here, when would it be likely to kick in? Is it going to come in this year?

Maybe what that

graph tells us is that retailers and processors are losing money on lamb.

So effectively, the ability to pass that forward price onto the consumer is very limited.

And that, you know, I don't know, I haven't got the latest losses on lambs per head, but it's there and has been there for a good while, you know, six months at least.

But this is part of the cycle.

You know, the rebuild, and I think lamb entered rebuild probably in that second quarter, as we'll show in some figures later on.

But, you know, whereas beef's rebuild, I think, probably starts in the last quarter of this year or at the start of next year.

And they're unlikely to go backwards at all, are they, Simon? So you've got less, effectively less hectares to run that cow herd, don't you? That's...

Agriculture market analyst Simon Quilty says the Australian beef industry has once again dodged the latest round of US tariffs, but the sheep and goat industry has not been so lucky.

In terms of beef, it has no impact because beef is exempt, and that's no surprise.

We know that because, you know, over the last – year and a half or so since the Trump administration has put these tariffs in, beef in the last six months has been exempt because the attempt is to lower consumer prices in America and therefore to lower tariffs.

The truth is consumer prices in America still remain at near record highs.

So it's questionable whether they have had much luck on that front.

It's lamb where the real concern is.

The 12.5% will be placed on lamb, but not on beef.

So this 12.5% will apply to them?

It will apply and, Warwick, it's already 10%.

I think the market absorbs this in a heartbeat.

And today domestic US lamb is at record levels.

So it's the equivalent of $18.50 Australian for our heavy lamb, which today trades at $11.50, as you know.

But that's how high and the price difference between US domestic lamb and Australian lamb.

So, our product is still cheaper than the US product? Yes, it is, as at the moment in the marketplace.

Is there a chance that these tariffs could be challenged in court again and then lamb exporters will be getting a payday at some time down the future? I

Has that happened over time, or has that been a quick change?

I think it's happened over time, but it's-- Uh, you know, we've seen lamb in terms of its role in the North American market go back again to that elite status of, as we once coined it, the new wagyu.

And Warwick, that really came out of COVID, where people learned within America how to cook lamb.

And so as a result of that, today, lamb prices retail, um, a-around about nine dollars fifty, sorry, wholesale in America, versus, would you believe, pork and chicken for the month of March came in at three dollars, three dollars twenty.

So three times the value.

Beef sits, um, domestic beef at seven, seven twenty.

But we've got lamb sitting at this unique level in America, and I think that filters all the way back to Australia.

If I'm a beef producer looking at this, am I thinking, "Oh, wow, does that mean my prices are going to fall in the second half of the year?" What are your thoughts on that?

Tell me about the work that the organisation does.

Yeah, so Willie Agenda means we all stand strong together.

And it was Norm's idea.

So I started doing a PhD on heat health and housing back in 2021.

I could see the catastrophe of longer and hotter summers and how it was tearing the social fabric of towns like Catherine and Tennant Creek to pieces.

And it really felt like there was no action happening.

And what was going on is that there was this rolling housing crisis and the new houses that the Northern Territory Government are building right up to this very day are absolutely shocking.

avoidance relationship?

With these record returns for red meat, beef and lamb, why are countries like the US not building up their beef herd more quickly? Ditto in Australia where you're based for the lamb herd, flock.

Yeah, so good question, Jamie.

Probably competition for land is one of the key kind of components here.

When we talk of the flock in Australia, well, I guess we've had in areas some severe droughts over the last three years or so.

and we've had a wool industry that's been on its knees.

It's turned around, Jamie, but I think the exodus out of merino production is genuine and has now been going on for near on three and a half years.

So that's the driver there and the growers are switching across into both grain and beef and also self-shedding sheep has become a much more important part of the equation so that's Australia in America once again drought has driven a reduction in the size of the herd and today Jamie it's at an 80 sorry a 74 year low and sits at 86.2 million and we think this year it finally starts to rebuild for at least three years which will see retention of females but Jamie once again they will never go back to where they were in size like 95 million at best we think somewhere around 91 to 92 million so Jamie that trend of lower herd sizes continues going forward, even though we're going into a rebuild, best describe it as a mild rebuild, because we're never going back to the numbers we once were.

What are you seeing in the next calendar year?

With these record returns for red meat, beef and lamb, why are countries like the US not building up their beef herd more quickly? Ditto in Australia where you're based for the lamb herd, flock.

Yeah, so good question, Jamie.

Probably competition for land is one of the key kind of components here.

When we talk of the flock in Australia, well, I guess we've had in areas some severe droughts over the last three years or so.

and we've had a wool industry that's been on its knees.

It's turned around, Jamie, but I think the exodus out of merino production is genuine and has now been going on for near on three and a half years.

So that's the driver there, and the growers are switching across into both grain and beef, and also self-shedding sheep has become popular.

What are you seeing in the next calendar year?