What is the effect on Israel going to be of this pact?

Well, I guess Israel is, is in a, a particular position in that it has long relied on the United States for its security, for its diplomatic cover.

Now, over the past few months, we're seeing tensions between Israel and the United States.

We've seen in recent ye- uh, recent days, uh, Benjamin Netanyahu pushing back and rejecting the Board of Peace/Donald Trump's vision for Gaza.

And so I think that this, I think, is potentially quite a significant move for, uh, for Israel, this establishment of this alignment of Saudi, uh, Turkey, and Pakistan, in the sense that it brings together three powerful Muslim states who've had long and complex relations with Israel.

Uh, Israelis were, I think, very, very keen to get Saudi normalization over the line.

Uh, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been adamant that that will not happen without the establishment of a Palestinian state.

But meanwhile, Simon, the Saudis are, um, making, um, agreements in order to try to keep the waterways open.

What is the effect on Israel going to be of this pact?

Well, [sighs] I guess Israel is, is in a, a particular position in that it has long relied on the United States for its security, for its diplomatic cover.

Now, over the past few months, we're seeing tensions between Israel and the United States.

We've seen in recent ye- uh, recent days, uh, Benjamin Netanyahu pushing back and rejecting the Board of Peace/Donald Trump's vision for Gaza.

And so I think that this, I think, is potentially quite a significant move for, uh, for Israel, this establishment of this alignment of Saudi, uh, Türkiye and Pakistan, in the sense that it brings together three powerful Muslim states who've had long and complex relations with Israel.

Uh, Israelis were, I think, very, very keen to get Saudi normalization over the line.

Uh, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been adamant that that will not happen without the establishment of a Palestinian state, and I think that, uh, I- Israel has had a, a complex relationship with Turkey, not least in Syria.

But meanwhile, Simon, the Saudis are, um, making, um, agreements in order to try to keep the waterways open.

Who are they and how powerful are they?

Well, these are a group of, of, of armed men essentially that have been playing a dominant role in Iraqi politics for the past 12 years or so.

They came to fruition, they came to, to, to prominence I guess, uh, when they took up arms to fight Daesh, to fight ISIS back in the summer of 2014, uh, following a fatwa from, uh, from an Iraqi cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who called on all Iraqis to take up arms to defend the state.

And as they defended the state, they, they gained, uh, widespread popularity, widespread influence on political, social, uh, dynamics across Iraq.

Uh, and partly, of course, this was, was a consequence of the, the influence and the funding and the logistical support, the training, the ideological support provided by Iran.

So I think there's, there's a lot of different dynamics going on here, and I think one of the key things is, is that this isn't just a collective, a unified collective all doing the bidding o- of a singular entity or, or indeed all doing the bidding of Iran.

This is a loose-knit group of, of organizations, of, of militias that have lots of different ideas, lots of different aspirations, lots of different agendas.

What is the risk of this war now expanding into the wider region, you think?

And how is this being viewed in the wider region, would you say?

say?Yeah, first of all, thank you again for having me on and for letting me share the panel with these two wonderful experts.

Um, I think it's a really interesting one in the sense that unlike the deal with the UAE, for example, back in 2009, uh, the Saudi deal does not seem to have those same handrails.

It doesn't seem to have the same guardrails that one would normally expect with a 123 agreement with, uh, the, the Non-Proliferation Treaty's, uh, broader parameters or indeed the, uh, the International Atomic Energy Association's, uh, broader expectations about what a nuclear agreement would look like.

So in that regard, I think there's gonna be a bit of frustration in, in the Emirates, for example, that, that the Saudis have seemingly got a, a sweeter deal than, than they did.

And I think in, in Tehran, for instance, there's gonna be a lot of anger and a lot of frustration about a perceived hypocrisy here.

After all, uh, uh, going back to the early narratives around the, the US-led conflict with Iran, this was about the nuclear question.

Uh, w- what would you say, do you think Washington has lost its leverage over Saudi? Do you think that there was a time in the past where Washington have, could have said, "Look, if you want civilian, uh, plants, then you must do the following," but now it's seems to have given Saudi, according to some, a very good deal?

How is it that this rivalry has been transformed? Was it Gaza that brought these two nations together?

No, I think it's far earlier than that.

I think it goes back to 2019 and a Saudi shift in approach with regard to the United States, this sense of a shift in the way that the Saudis were thinking about how they could rely on the US.

So if we go back to the Second World War, there was an agreement reached between Ibn Saud, the founder of Saudi Arabia, and the US president at the time for a trade that the Saudis would guarantee US oil and the Americans would guarantee Saudi security.

Now fast forward to 2019, and you get to a point where the Saudis think, hang on, can we really count on Washington for our security? And I think that really was called into question.

And so that contributed to a bit of a shift in Saudi thinking.

And at the same time, of course, we've got dramatic changes in the kingdom.

Have you a view of why the United States joined Israel in this campaign to bomb Iran to smithereens?

How is it that this rivalry has been transformed? Was it Gaza that brought these two nations together?

No, I think it's far earlier than that.

I think it goes back to 2019 and a Saudi shift in approach with regard to the United States, this sense of a shift in the way that the Saudis were thinking about how they could rely on the US.

So if we go back to the Second World War, there was an agreement reached between Ibn Saud, the founder of Saudi Arabia, and the US president at the time for a trade that the Saudis would guarantee US oil and the Americans would guarantee Saudi security.

Now fast forward to 2019, and you get to a point where the Saudis think, hang on, can we really count on Washington for our security? And I think that really was called into question.

And so that contributed to a bit of a shift in Saudi thinking.

And at the same time, of course, we've got dramatic changes in the kingdom.

Have you a view of why the United States joined Israel in this campaign to bomb Iran to smithereens?

Uh, I'll come to you in a second, Mitchell, but I want to get to Simon and ask him, does this represent the ability for somebody's house to be sold from under their feet ultimately?

Well, it, it seems that way, unless they are able to prove, and I guess there are very serious legal questions as to what prove means and in which court this is actually gonna be tried in.

Uh, and it, it's about being able to prove with the right documentation that the house belongs to you.

If you are unable to do that according to this, these, these new regulations, then the house can be taken from you according to the, the idea that land can then be, be co-opted by the state.

And I thought there was a very interesting turn of phrase from Mr. Barak when he referred to Israel taking over, and I thought that kind of captures a lot of what's going on here.

Um, it echoes many of the sentiments mentioned by, uh, members of Mr. Netanyahu's cabinet about preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state and reasserting Israeli control over Judea and Samaria.

These are, these are phrases that have been used by the likes of Bezalel Smotrich and, and others.

... as, uh, Beza- uh, Bezalel Smotrich, Israel Katz, and, uh, Ben-Gvir have said, that the idea of a Palestinian state is dead? And if so, what do they want to do with the Palestinians on the land they control?