Simon, do you think that John Healy really is the bringer of a new industrial revolution as he seems to be positioning himself?

I don't know if he can achieve quite that much by himself.

But one of the things that was startling just listening to the first few minutes of that speech is he is orders of magnitude a better speaker than his predecessor, Rachel Reeves.

When he says stuff, he actually sounded authentic, he sounded human, which admittedly is quite a low bar, but he did at least exceed that bar in a way that his predecessor didn't.

So we can at least applaud him for that.

He stood under a banner which read, Hope Again, which seemed like a sort of subtle, not so subtle, jibe at Rachel Reeves' arrival into government where she said, Everything is far worse than we thought it would be.

We're going to have to put up taxes.

But isn't this just going to pump up demand and ultimately house prices?

Simon, what do you make of that challenge? And how do you expect the conference to look and feel?

Well, essentially, I think the high watermark for business enthusiasm for closing up to Labour was probably the 2023 conference, where it was a few months before the general election.

It was pretty obvious Rishi Sunak was going to lose and Keir Starmer was going to take over.

They hosted that business day event on one of the days of their conference at which they were charging a couple of grand a ticket and they sold several hundred of them.

So they made about half a million just from one event, you know, at the time.

Apparently, according to Politico, since then, they have raised the price of that event at subsequent conferences.

The following year, it was $3,000.

What's going on here?

Could they save us all? We've been talking about this for a while, but could this be a moment where proper global regulation falls into place?

Well, essentially, I was talking to a friend recently who works at one of the big AI firms, and they said... you know, this is a moment where a big new powerful technology is being developed that has ramifications for global security.

This would be a great time to have a set of global leaders who are really in favor of global cooperation and agreements And we do not have that set of global leaders.

We have the complete wrong set of global leaders for that kind of cooperation.

However, there is going to be a meeting between Trump and Xi.

They are the front runners in what's being described as an AI arms race.

You know, the two countries with the most powerful tech.

Do you think there is a possibility, even though we are essentially in a sort of Cold War with China, that we could find ground here where our mutual interests align?

Simon, what have we learned from this new economics data? How did we get to this position?

Yeah, do you remember a couple of years ago when Banksy came up with that theme park called Dismaland? It does feel like that's sort of extended to the entire UK now.

I mean, with the news we've got at the moment, everything feels a bit Dismaland.

So August borrowing data showed the UK borrowed £18.3 billion just in a single month.

That overshot expectations by 3.5 billion, according to what the Office for Budget Responsibility, the OBR, had forecast.

And it now means that the total borrowing since Labour took office a couple of years ago is now over 200 billion.

And of course, if you are the chancellor, particularly if you've just become the chancellor, you want the data in the run up to the budget to give you a bit of a leg up.

Why is it that shares in the owner of B&Q are up quite so dramatically this week?

What would that mean for Londoners and how many people will be brought into this tax bracket?

Yes, indeed.

So as you say, I've been crunching the numbers, looking at that great resource, the HM Land Registry Open Data website.

On your Google Chrome bookmarks, I'm sure.

Which took about 10 minutes to load because it's a Chromebook.

And it won't surprise you that the majority of the people affected by this potential tax change would be Londoners.

According to the data, there were a bit of a 4,000 transactions in London, housing transactions in London over the past year that were for properties over 1.5 million in value.

Why is it that JD Sports is setting up shop in Mexico?

So what are you currently seeing in the economy and markets?

Well, We have to start in the Middle East because what happens to shortages and prices of diesel, jet fuel, fertilizers, helium, et cetera, will have a direct bearing on economic activity and probably Fed policy.

So let's start with how I see things here.

The Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, have closed down the pipe from the Persian Gulf into the port of Yanbu.

It's been hit in four places, seriously, and the pump station has been destroyed.

It's not going to reopen quickly.

It will be months, and I could almost say if ever, because having hit and fractured the pipeline in four places already, there's always a second opportunity.

okay and how do you see this conflict evolving in in the middle east with you know obviously iran versus gcc do you it seems like there's no end in sight and it's very difficult for it to be resolved

What's happened here?

So Crispin Odey, famous, uh, city financier who was the subject of a barnstorming, um, FT investigation a couple of years back in which, uh, they identified, uh, at least 20 separate women who, uh, a- alleged, um, that they were victims of sexual harassment by Odey.

Um, he was subsequently banned as a, uh, director by the FCA.

We should say, though, that the, those, uh, that ban was not in relation to the allegations themselves, which he denies, but, uh, uh, in terms of his, uh, handling of them and the handling of them by the company.

They say that he twice fired the execs at Odey Asset Management, his asset management firm, to stop them disciplining him over the allegations, and they say that he created a false reality in which he was a victim.

Uh, Odey's lawyers argued on the flip side that the FCA was effectively trying to bring a sexual harassment case by the back door.

In other words, although the case was about the company's handling of the allegations, he says that the FCA tried to make the case about the allegations themselves.

[laughs] Just Hugo.

We've all wanted to send one to Sadiq Khan at one time or another.

[laughs] Yep.

So, as you say, there's been a bit of a, a conflict, uh, over cycling, uh, e-bike licenses in London for some time, but it's really stepped up a gear, uh, now.

Uh, this is an, a City AM exclusive, a, a letter that Forest has sent to Khan in which, uh, they urge a pan-London approach to licensing.

Um, TFL now has the power to introduce that, uh, under recent legislation if they want to, but so, so far haven't taken any action, and Forest say they're concerned about what they describe as a prolonged delay.

They say no other mode of transport used by hundreds of thousands of Londoners is regulated on a borough by borough basis, and they want that to come to an end.

So every AI action is permission aware, giving you accuracy 24/7 and the ability not just to get work done, but get it done right.

It's a new Workday.

Yeah, it has been a

while.

It's difficult to underestimate the scale of the pain that this will cause the exchequer because, as you say, Chris Rocos contributes something like a third of a billion pounds to...

in tax receipts every year.

I mean, to put that into perspective, you've done some good examples already, but earlier in the week, the Chancellor announced a £150 million funding package to support, I think it was the British Business Bank.

Chris Rocos single-handedly would have paid for that and double that.

So...

can we come up with a jingle for the CityAM Spending Pulse? Can we come up with that?

Simon, how are

you? I'm back from an exciting day out at an ale festival.

That might have something to do with it.

But yes, John Healy, Britain's...

Not drinking Timothy Taylor's, I hope.

No, I wouldn't ever.

I wouldn't dream of it.

Simon, which pension provider has taken a nearly half a billion pound hit

Can you explain what they've done so far on ground rents and what they are aiming to do?

So effectively, there is now going to be a cap on ground rent.

That's the amount that the freehold owner of a property can charge the leaseholder who occupies, you know, largely it's sort of flats, apartments, that sort of thing.

So there wasn't a cap on that previously.

So in theory, at least, you could charge an infinite amount for that.

There is now a cap.

And it's the expressed intention of Angela Rayner, the housing secretary, to eventually make it zero.

So this

But for now, Simon, we've had some rather sobering data out this week about graduates like us with Plan 2 student loans.

Yes, and I think this is something that is probably close to both of our hearts as people who are the beneficiaries of this plan.

Thank you, Nick Clegg.

Yes, there's some research that found that anyone who isn't earning at least £45,000 within six years of graduating is unlikely to pay off their student loan ever in the future.

In other words, it's probably going to be written off after 30 years.

And this is in large part because, of course, the interest on that debt compounds.

And so if you don't pay that interest off in a given year, in the subsequent year, not only are you also paying that interest, but the interest that's compounded on the interest you haven't paid in the previous year.

Now, what's the average wage in the UK, like 28 to 30 grand? I mean...

Simon, what's going on?

We had the nationwide house price index produced yesterday.

It showed the average house price was up about 1.6% compared to this time last year.

Nationwide said activity and prices remain subdued.

Now, there's several factors that inform that.

But one of the more interesting ones, this comes from an analysis from our good friends at Money Facts.

is that affordability has got even worse for Londoners, particularly first time buyers.

62 at some point.

How has spending got to this point?

It's interesting because, uh, Republicans are often seen as the party of prudent fiscal management, as the party that ten- generally tends to rein in government spending, bring down the deficit.

We have not had that with Trump.

Uh, Trump has increased government spending, um, over, over the last few years.

Um, and the re- the result of that, um, is that the cost of borrowing is going up for US government debt.

Uh, the US 30-year yield is now at 5.8%, which is the highest it's been in 19 years.

And, um, at current projections, if the deficit continues to rise at the pace it has done the past few years, it will go up to 175%-

Why is that?

So yeah, Simon, what's, what's going on here? What's changing? What's the state of play?

So it's, it's not confirmed yet because we'll get the official figure that will determine the amount by which the, the triple lock will increase in September, but it's looking set to rise by about another £500 next year based on current data.

Uh, so the latest pay data showed, uh, incomes were up on average by 4.1%.

So the triple lock specifies that, um, the pension will go up by either wages, inflation, or 2.5%, whichever is the highest, and so wages looks to be the one that will drive it up.

Um, and so that means, um, billions of pounds extra being spent on the triple lock.

I think what's really interesting about this, um, is that, and our, our, um, economics reporter, Mauricio, pointed this out, uh, the other day, um, is that the wage data is being driven, uh, by public sector pay.

So 4.1%-

Mm-hmm.

You can try to make sense of it, thank you.

Yeah, but oil, oil has crept up back above $90 a barrel in sign of continuing uncertainty in the, in the Middle East.

It's not quite at the, uh, levels it was at the peak of the, uh, early, uh, outbreak of the war where it was up, uh, at above $100, but it's definitely up above where it was a few weeks ago.

There's a growing sentiment that this could be a really protracted thing.

This is not going to be something that will be resolved, uh, by, by the end of the summer or p- possibly even by the end of the year.

Um, th- uh, there was a fascinating, um, long read by the Wall Street Journal earlier this week entitled Iran's Secret Plan to Escalate the War, and it alleges that ever since the memor- memorandum of understanding was signed between Iran and the US, uh, back in June, Iran has been quietly preparing for a much bigger, a more serious conflict.

Um, they cite one military analyst who says, "There is a widespread view in Iran that the main war has not yet begun." Um, so there's, there's a real feeling that this could actually escalate into something much more, uh, serious.

[laughs]

[laughs] I hope they're working.

Uh, so this is a story about The Works.

Uh, pe- people might know as a sort of stationer/arts and crafts/bookseller, uh, company.

Um, they have an activist investor with quite a large shareholder called Kelso, and Kelso's been having a go at them.

Kelso wants to, uh, appoint new members, uh, to The Works' board.

Uh, and they've also had a bit of a falling out, it appears, with the company's chairman, um, who they accuse of having spent most of his time as chair of the company in New Zealand, despite the fact they don't actually have any New Zealand branches.

They say they believe shareholders would benefit from greater clarity regr- regarding his physical attendance and in-person engagement with the business.

I began by asking him about that new Andy Burnham 65 million pound rescue package for farmers who are at risk of wildfires.

in my introduction

...

I think we'll have to, I will have to use the word a fair bit over the next couple of minutes.

Uh, but in short, this is a, a story about an IT consultant called Amit Sharma, who worked for an IT firm called Aspire Infolabs.

They were contracted by Soho House to, uh, try and improve some of their systems and software.

Um, as part of that, uh, Mr. Sharma had access to a lot of personal data of members of Soho House, including things like names, addresses, credit card details, that sort of thing.

Um, and he had a bit of a falling out with Aspire, decided he wanted to leave the company, wanted quite a big, uh, settlement to exit.

What's the latest?

Why?

So as you say, it's been a pretty rough ride for shareholders of Diageo the past couple of years.

Uh, they've seen sales slide in various, uh, of their different products in various of the continents that they sell their products in.

Uh, but, uh, earlier this year, they brought in a man known in the market as Drastic Dave, a guy called Dave Lewis, who is known for his-

Which companies has he had a root around with before?

So one of the, one of the best examples is Tesco, uh, which a few years ago was really struggling.

In comes Dave, you know, cuts a bit of the workforce, cuts some of the, some of the fat, and lo and behold, within a couple of years they're profitable again.

So this is a similar, uh, turnaround strategy that he has for Diageo.

... of the Welsh, um, principality.

Um, and on, on our podcast not too long ago, um, I talked about the success of IQE, uh, which has seen its, uh, shares explode the past few months.

Uh, one of the fastest growing, uh, shares we've, or stocks we've seen, uh, on the London Stock Exchange this year.

Uh, when we put that video out, I think the, the top comment, uh, on, on TikTok was someone who said, uh, "Yes, we do have computers over here, you know." Uh, so that [laughs] made me wonder, you know, is it maybe a, a story that, um, is not well enough known outside of Wales or outside the UK how successful Wales has, has become?

[laughs]

No, no, no.

No, no, no.

But I do understand why you wouldn't wanna make that situation worse, 'cause Twickenham is one of the worst, uh, examples of town planning I've ever seen.

It's decadent.

It is a 102-meter superyacht called Nixie, and it features a glass-bottomed infinity pool.

But it...

He, uh, was approached by this yacht dealer who set him up with this, uh, guy who was offloading this yacht, and it transpires that, at least according to Cecil Wright, I think his name is, the, the guy who, who's the, the dealer behind the yacht, Storonsky then bypassed him and went straight to the yacht owner in order to swerve the commission fee that he'd have to pay-

What has this meant for BP's profit margins?

Well, perhaps unsurprisingly, they are up.

They are through the roof.

Uh, you know, energy companies have been one of the rare, um, beneficiaries of, of, uh, the sort of turmoil, uh, in Iran because shorter supplies means the price goes up, means they can charge more, means they put more dollar in the bank.

Simon Hunt is a journalist in Madrid, formerly of the newspaper El País.

The, um, authorities are saying that the fire that...

It was actually three fires in Madrid that joined to create this, um, massive blaze, and the regional authorities are saying now, uh, uh, it, that it, it is at its peak and beyond any, uh, capacity to, to be extinguished.

Uh, and very worryingly, it's now work- uh, moving towards, uh, El Escorial, which is a beautiful place and one of, um, home to one of Spain's, um, most important historic landmarks.

That's where the, the La Granja is.

It's a, um, sixteenth-century park and palace that was, uh, um, built by, um, uh, King Philip II.

So the, the, the...

Um, climatic conditions aren't helping, are they? I mean, what's the weather like? I mean, obviously hot, but is it windy too?

Woof.

Um, but I, I, yeah, there was very little in the way of detail, but some pretty bold, uh, visions that he has, um, for his, his time in office.

Uh, he says he wants to make this moment a circuit breaker for Britain, bringing forward the biggest changes in 40 years with a new political model and a new economic model.

So this is not, you know, we'll, we'll change a bit here, we'll, we'll, we'll tinker around with this.

This is, he wants to, to rewrite the, uh, economics of the UK.

I don't know how you do that, but-

Um, but I mean, we, after the, uh, speech, everyone kind of looked around at each other in the newsroom being like, "Well, what was that?" Um, but there was one substantive point in which he's already managed to spend money within the sort of four minutes he was speaking.

Yes.

So we are seeing the slow

emergence of a new architecture for the Gulf states, which will exclude America and will include Pakistan operating on behalf, as it were, of Russia and China.

What's really going on with the memorandum of understanding is that President Trump is trying to change it.

No, I didn't say this.

No, I didn't say that.

And Iran is standing for.

I think that, well, the real point of Iran is we will control the Strait of Hormuz.

Do you think that could have been one of the reasons, something to do with the U.S. dollar being challenged?

That's in Count Binface's manifesto, by the way.

Well, exactly.

Exactly.

Um, and I think the other one, arguably more legitimate, is, you know, people's wider concerns about degrees of inequality and, you know, will that have an effect on our society, and how do we, how do we deal with that? And, you know, you can debate the merits and demerits of that, but it's a little bit more of a serious debate.

Um, and I th- as you say, this has been popularized by Gary Stevenson.

The city trader turned YouTuber, who's a big advocate for it, and he makes a powerful case based largely just on intuition, on people's sort of innate sense of fairness or whatever.

Uh, he doesn't spend very much time thinking about the massive practical challenges associated with a, a wealth tax, of which the most obvious are, uh, A, capital flight, because tax rich people too much, and they will just pack their bags and go and bring all their assets with them.

Quite difficult to come up with a counterargument, but you have a bit of an idea for what you would do if you were the chancellor, Simon.