Have you ever seen anything in history like this before? And do you think that there's a way to cobble back a coalition like that for Republicans in 28 or Democrats looking at a pretty good next several election cycles?

So I think there are probably some analogies to this.

One that I might think of would be between 72 and 74.

So post Watergate.

Yeah.

Richard Nixon wins reelection in 72 with like more than 60 percent of the vote.

It's this absurd blowout.

She says, if Democrats gain control of the U.S. House and Senate besides hearings, is there anything they could do to be productive instead of big omnibus bills have smaller bills that might get support from Republicans? What do you think? What do they do?

So can you walk us through some of this history and these pivotal events that you write about that are really kind of milestones? In the rise of this populism?

Yeah, sure.

I mean, you know, there's been different strains of populism throughout American history.

The one I'm kind of focusing on here, you could see the beginnings of it, as I describe it, like after Richard Nixon's loss to John Kennedy in 1960.

That, you know, it was a very close election.

Nixon lost very narrowly.

And then there was a kind of a fight within the party as to which way the party should go after that.

I guess it's a fairly new development, but talk about some of these structural changes that enabled, that weakened the existing party structure in a way that enabled these other forces to come in.

What then did you conclude about what is likely to happen or what are the different scenarios that could unfold if Republicans go down hard in the midterms?

That's one of those few older pieces that actually have aged pretty well for me.

I've got a lot of bad predictions, but the idea that the GOP will not pivot from Trump has held up pretty well.

And we've seen a lot of examples of that.

So one of the things I was really interested in, and I mentioned this in my piece at the is there's some polling available.

I looked at Civic's set of polls that they've been conducting throughout Trump's public career, so since 2016, really, asking people's favorability rating.

Do you think of Trump favorably or unfavorably? And they break it down by political party.

Yeah.

What then did you conclude about what is likely to happen or what are the different scenarios that could unfold if Republicans go down hard in the midterms?

That's one of those few older pieces where that actually have aged pretty well for me.

Like I've got a lot of bad, bad predictions, but the idea that the, you know, that the GOP will not pivot from Trump has held up pretty well.

And we've seen a lot of examples of that.

So one of the things I was really interested in, and I mentioned this in my piece at this bonus report, is there's some polling available.

I looked at Civic's set of polls that they've been conducting throughout Trump's public career, so since 2016, really.

asking people's favorability rating.

nothing in that autopsy.

What are those animals like?

Great question.

Thank you.

First of all, I just want to thank everyone for being here tonight.

Thanks to the Politics and Prose crew for setting this up.

Thanks to Hans and Chloe for helping to set this up.

So yeah, this is essentially a sequel book.

And so from a sort of like a political methodology kind of perspective, like how did you try to minimize that level of potential selection bias? And then what does that tell us about both political science going forward, but also political journalism and the structure of American democracy if we have a difficulty understanding what key actors actually want?

Um,

you could start this in a lot of places in history.

I mean, there, you know, there's a, there's a populist strain to us political history that really essentially goes back to the beginning.

Um, But, you know, I tend to identify it.

One of the main places I pick up on it is Pat Buchanan's run for president in 1992.

And, you know, populism is I, you know, this conservative populism is I'm defining it in here and I'm borrowing definitions from a number of other scholars.

It's just sort of this this set of beliefs that.

But How did this conversation happen after 2020? Because you do, you're surveying people, they're giving you information, you're interviewing them, and you have different responses that you're also hearing.

Can you talk a little bit about, you know, sort of the contours of where that came from and that it comes to a full blossom, obviously, with Trump?

Sure.

You could start this in a lot of places in history.

I mean, there you know, there's a there's a populist strain to U.S. political history that really essentially goes back to the beginning.

But, you know, I tend to identify it.

One of the main places I pick up on it is Pat Buchanan's run for president in 1992.

And, you know, populism is I, you know, this conservative populism is I'm defining it in here and I'm borrowing definitions from a number of other scholars.

But How did this conversation happen after 2020? Because you do, you're surveying people, they're giving you information, you're interviewing them, and you have different responses that you're also hearing.

Um, can you talk a little bit about, you know, sort of the contours of where that came from and, and that it comes to a full blossom, obviously, with Trump?

Sure.

Um, you could start this in a lot of places in history.

[chuckles] I mean, there, you know, there's a, there's a populist strain to US political history that really essentially goes back to the beginning.

Um, but you know, I tend to identify it, uh-- One of the main places I pick up on it is, uh, Pat Buchanan's run for president in nineteen ninety-two.

And you know, populism is I-- You know, this conservative populism as I'm defining it in here and I'm borrowing definitions from a number of other scholars, it's just sort of this, this set of beliefs that, uh, there's a, you know, there's a shadowy set of elites out there, um, who is steering government for their own purposes, and they're working against the people.

Um, and that's, you know, at least on the right, they're, they're, they're concerned, like, about, you know, about the media, about Hollywood, advocates of greater immigration, um, university professors.

Um, and you have sort of different responses that you're also hearing.

Um, can you talk a little bit about, you know, sort of the contours of where that came from, and, and that it comes to a full blossom, obviously, with Trump?

Sure.

Um, you could start this in a lot of places in history.

[chuckles] I mean, there, you know, there's a, there's a populist strain to US political history that really essentially goes back to the beginning.

Um, but you know, I tend to identify it, uh-- One of the main places I pick up on it is, uh, Pat Buchanan's run for president in nineteen ninety-two.

And you know, populism is I, you know, this conservative populism as I'm defining it in here and I'm borrowing definitions from a number of other scholars, it's just sort of this, this set of beliefs that, uh, there's a, you know, there's a shadowy set of elites out there, um, who is steering government for their own purposes, and they're working against the people.

Um, and that's, you know, at least on the right, they're, there's, they're concerned, like, about, you know, about the media, about Hollywood, advocates of greater immigration, um, university professors.

You know, you're surveying people, they're giving you information, you're interviewing them, um, and you have sort of different responses that you're also hearing.

And if it's not transferable, who inherits whatever this is?

Not that that's necessarily answerable.

I mean, we've seen now his influence in two prior midterm elections so far in 2018 and 2022, both of which he's proven very influential in the primaries.

Right.

He can help make or break a candidacy in the primaries.

In the general election, his candidates have generally underperformed.

And we saw a lot of that in 22.

I believe Ross Perot is the beta test of this idea of a savior, industrialist savior slash businessman.

Not yet.

Uh, so what is the Republican Party in twenty twenty-six? So one of the things I get into in this book, uh, in my new book, The Elephants in the Room, um, is sort of how the Republican Party got this way, basically.

Like, uh, like the sort of the pivot moment i- as I, as I, that I'm describing in this book is the decision to nominate Donald Trump in twenty twenty-four, his third presidential nomination.

And this was a party that had options, that considered options, but ultimately went, went with that.

Um, and I try and get into like what happened over the previous several decades that actually made that seem like the logical choice.

And as I depict it, you know, there's just been this, this populist, sort of, uh, you know, conservative populist movement growing within the party for decades.

Um, I kinda trace it back to, uh, Pat Buchanan's run for president in nineteen ninety-two, but, um, others will draw that line somewhat differently.

I mean, FDR did a little bit of it.

So what's your book about?

So, uh, well, thanks for having me on, and I, again, I do appreciate your, your blurbing the book.

Um, I'm hoping to benefit from, like, the Goldberg bump here.

We'll see what happens.

But the book itself is, is a focus on the Republican nomination of Donald Trump, specifically in 2024.

So it's his third consecutive nomination.

Nominated 2016, 2020.

Yeah.

Not

yet.

So what is the Republican Party in 2026? So one of the things I get into in this book is.

in my new book, The Elephants in the Room, is sort of how the Republican Party got this way, basically.

Like the sort of the pivot moment that I'm describing in this book is the decision to nominate Donald Trump in 2024, his third presidential nomination.

And This was a party that had options, that considered options, but ultimately went with that.

And I try and get into what happened over the previous several decades that actually made that seem like the logical choice.

a little bit of

And the notion of whether that cost him anything.

It did not.

Among people who identify as Republicans, that did not really cost him, um, January 6th.

The only time that he really lost support among his own voters was after the 2022 midterms, when the party was widely seen as underperforming, and it was his fault.

He had recruited a lot of bad candidates.

He got them to echo his claims, and he was sort of pretty broadly blamed for that.

They lost some faith in him after that.

Timely.

When we think about today's Republican Party, what factions do you see as existing?

You know what? It's tricky because it's really a moving target.

If you were to go back, you know, 30 or 40 years in the Republican Party, there was this sort of new faction of Reaganites that, you know, were displacing this old guard, and they were much more strident on anti-tax and anti-regulation and a much more aggressive foreign policy, much more, you know, belligerent toward the Soviet Union at the time.

That faction was seen somewhat at war with kind of a sort of an old guard faction c- more dominated by people like, you know, like the George H.W. Bush family.

And, you know, they were ultimately able to work together, and eventually kinda the Reagan group more or less took over the party.

Um, but that created some challenges at the time.

Today, uh, it's a, it's a pretty different story where you really have this dominant MAGA faction, you know, for, for, for want of another term.

In your recent book, "The Elephants in the Room: How Trump Voters Seized the Party from Republican Leaders," how does a faction seize the party or take over? Is this something that you think MAGA wanted all along, or is it just over time, the goal appeared in front of them, and they realized, "Hey, we can seize the party"?

Seth, I'll let you lead in our conversation about Cory Booker.

Uh, Cory Booker's an interesting guy.

He's-- You'd think he sort of ran well in 2020.

That is, he, he hit a lot of the right marks.

There was...

If you think in terms of, like, lanes, he's potentially the candidate who could win a lot of Black support, but also reach out to a lot of white voters.

That year, Black voters were already really in the tank for, uh, Joe Biden, who, uh, on pure electability concerns.

Seth.

Mm-hmm.

Um, and, and voters being very loyal to one party, uh, i-is very common.

And those are systems that are designed to just, uh, to just function when you u-use simple majority rule and, you know, different parties form coalitions.

Um, and we've had a lot of, you know, very partisan eras in, in the past in the United States, and that h- doesn't necessarily mean the country's falling apart, um, or there's, there's nothing you can do.

Um, but yeah, you increasingly, and this is touching on some of Lily Mason's work, that you increasingly have partisanship aligned with basically all our other social divisions, right? Partisanship is f- it falls along ideological lines, to some extent race, to some extent gender, um, socioeconomic class, education levels, things like that.

And that just makes it a lot harder for a society to function.

It makes it a lot more likely that we're just never going to talk to each other.

Yeah