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Sertalp
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May 13, 2026
FPL Gameweek 37 - Band is back together
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41:43SertalpGUEST
Um, I will give it a, give this a try, but if my voice is cutting off, like, I don't also mind James or one of you guys explaining.
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41:52SertalpGUEST
But, uh, I will start with the ownership angle first of all, uh, because the original question we received was asking, like, how many points would you sacrifice to increase your chance of catching up? Um, so I think the problem here is that we think that we need to, well, we need to sacrifice some projected points to get, you know, increase our chances of catching up.
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42:16SertalpGUEST
Uh, but sacrificing points is about sacrificing the mean, but you want, you know, wider distribution, right? So you want, you need to go for players whose ownership is really, really low to increase the width o- of the-So that's why we were kind of calculating s- what we call the leverage.
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42:39SertalpGUEST
Uh, essentially multiplying projected points with one minus ownership just as a, you know, rough measure of, you know, how many points you ... uh, against the field.
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42:50SertalpGUEST
Um, so, so that, you know, sacrificing projected points to gain, um, you know, in- increase your chance of catching up is not exactly true.
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43:00SertalpGUEST
You need to really look at the distribution and- And also on the effective ownership, we have been trying to predict effective ownership.