What's the market need to see to be able to build on, you know, some buying, I guess, or see some buying? Are we going to have to see some work on this $17 billion, the tariffs dropped? What do you expect?

I think we need to see quantities, which crops, when.

You know, timing, how much, you know, some definitive markers, not just, well, sort of kind of like, I think the market wants specific details of when can we expect this demand to occur? How much of it and in which markets can we expect it to occur? Is it just soybeans or are we going to actually expand this beyond to include other markets? And that's really something that I think would be very important to see to really give the overall, you know, grain and cotton markets a boost here.

Yeah, the grain markets also caught up in some headlines last week on Black Sea and maybe getting a grain export corridor, but what's the likelihood of that?

I mean, everything that we see does not show much progress.

I mean, obviously, we hope for the best, but I don't see anything that says that Zelensky or, you know, Putin are anywhere closer to an agreement or to any kind of a situation that's going to allow significant amounts of grain right now based upon the track that we're on with exports.

We're looking at maybe two millimetre tons of exports coming out of Russia and Ukraine.

That still would be the lowest since 2010, and that's not going to get it done for buyers that need these products before the end of the year.

While we did bounce off a support in soybeans close back above the $13 mark, do you think that what weather harvest delays and these Western Corn Belt soybean basis pushes are helping to support the futures?

Yeah, absolutely.

I mean, our discussions, processors are out of soybeans.

They desperately need them.

They can't wait to buy them.

Delayed harvest is not good.

A wet harvest is not good.

The second port down on the southern border opening, do you feel the same way?

Sean is with Hackett Financial Advisors.

Yeah, I mean, for those who don't know or aren't aware, you know, New Zealand puts on these auctions, these global auctions in powder and cheese and butter every two weeks.

And especially this time of the year, September through December is New Zealand's peak production, peak sales, peak volume.

So the prices that you see from September through December typically are very impactful and very telling about what global prices should be doing or are doing.

And the U.S. historically has followed gdt prices three months hence meaning whatever the gdt price does we tend to follow three months after something happens on gdt so while it's not an immediate impact it's definitely something to watch that maybe this could start to improve the price outlook for trees if this price level were to persist for another couple of auctions we could see some better pricing later in the year what might be behind it it's always hard to know but my suspicion is that given that europe you had this one in 100 year trout record heat we know that milk production in europe was greatly impacted we know feed production um was greatly impacted um and and so this this might be an indication that the lower production the lower supplies especially the cheese uh coming out of europe might finally be reverberating in the international and we're starting maybe to see that show up first, as you typically would in the GDT global cash cheese price, which then would mean that the U.S. would then follow later on in the year.

So I'm trying to remember.

In fact, I can try to go back here, but I'm trying to remember the last time we saw something

Should dairy farmers be concerned, especially since they're talking another rate hike before year's

So, I mean, Sean, as you're looking at this, talk a little bit about some of the dynamics you see affecting this and where do you think this is headed and how long do you think this is going to go into 2027?

We've been low enough for long enough, and we've fired up the demand enough that we now need big crops in order to cover it, meaning we needed trendline yields or more to cover it.

And if we don't get trendline yields, even if it's a little off, then we get into a supply problem very, very quickly.

And that's where we're at.

I think the general concept is that farmers, when they were in the springtime looking at The fertilizer price at that time, which had skyrocketed, where the corn price was at that time, which was very unattractive.

Everybody just cut back just a little bit on fertilizer applications throughout the growing season.

I was in a high-level meeting over the weekend with a top fertilizer distributor, and he confirmed that there was definitely, across the board, less fertilizer used this growing season versus last year.

The question is, The Mexican

And Sean, where the wheat market has really been the lead, new contract highs in winter wheat, how much more premium do we need to add to that market? That's what we're trading, isn't it?

I mean, right, yeah, we're trading that.

We don't know yet.

I mean, every week that we don't ship, we need to put more on.

And every week we don't ship, we have to pour more on.

So it's a moving target until we can ascertain what's the worst-case scenario.

In my view, the worst-case scenario is that we don't see wheat flowing out of the curse straight into the end of the year.

little end of the month profit taking you think there

Ethanol [laughs]

... versus refining sugar.

They went from, from converting only like forty-five percent to ethanol to now sixty percent.

So the, the recent, uh, government data from Brazil showed, you know, sugar production, the amount that they're crushing for sugar, is down like twenty-eight percent year over year.

So sugar is in a lot of trouble, and this super El Niño will peak, according to our work, around December and will be impacting, you know, these areas through the spring before we flip, very quickly flip over to a La Niña come next summer.

So, so sugar's really starting to...

Now estimates are starting to come out about deficits.

As you look at this situation that we're in in the US, what are your thoughts and as we head into harvest?

Let's talk about what's driving this or whether those are a couple of the factors, right?

Yeah, I really think it's the geopolitics of Russia-Ukraine, the Kerch Strait being shut down, the lack of wheat exports coming out of that region, the re-excitement of the oil market, worries over the region, crimping supplies again.

And so...

Next week, later next week, I think the market is going to be looking for whether this is going to be just a shorter-term issue or it's going to extend beyond July.

If the market believes it's going to extend beyond July, then I think the wheat market needs to price in more premium, and the corn market has been begrudgingly following wheat, and that might give reason for the corn market to put some more premium on as well.

But the big question is, is how much higher did they go? What do we need to keep the bulls fed and keep the momentum going or the rally going?

Certainly on corn.

I feel that if you're going to get something for corn sake, you need to the weather in the core grain belt for the next two weeks to look less ideal than, than the models are showing right now.

Is that the only market that's trading that right now?

Well, I mean, we know that When geopolitics gets erratic, we know the market always likes to buy the wheat market, which we talked about.

But another market that we want to be paying attention to is the cotton market because of the relationship between polyester prices that are based upon crude oil as the input versus cotton prices.

An $11, $13 rally in crude oil from the lows and the polyester price is starting to follow along.

We're starting to get a gap again that I think will bring in some stronger demand for U.S. cotton, just as India weather and China weather are seeing two of the worst droughts we've seen in at least 10 to 15 years in the core cotton areas of those two countries.

It's a pretty good setup for why the cotton market here could be looking at It's sites back into the 80s again like we were at the last time crude oil took off.

What is going to be the proof to you that we have a low in this market or what are you targeting here?

Fundamentally, I want to see the better action in the beef cutout market.

Are you still in that camp?

I believe when it's all said and done and we've put the crop away and we do expect a good crop here in the U.S., even though people are getting a little excited about extreme western rain belt heat and some of the heat that looks like it's going to be in the northern plains, which we talked about many months that that would be your problem spots.

Where it counts, it looks pretty good.

They've had good rains.

They're going to continue to get good rains.

They're going to avoid those extreme high daytime temperatures.

But despite that, you have to remember, we're still taking 4 to 5 million acres off the top from last year.

Yeah, no USDA back then, right?

Any risk, weather risks or yield risks developing in your outlook?

Not for the U.S. crop.

I think European corn yields could be really, really bad, like really bad.

In fact, it's already really bad.

I don't think we've done irreversible damage in their corn crop over there.

And I think it could get considerably worse.

I think that the Chinese weather has been really, really bad.

Am I hearing you right?

mean

I guess, down in the low mid-70s now.

And gasoline has collapsed and diesel is collapsing.

So we had to unwind.

Everybody that was buying commodities for that reason had to unwind, had to sell.

And I think we have done that.

Everybody who needed to do it for that reason, that is now out of the market.

We got her.

Sean Hackett, how are you ahead of this one now in the next hour?

Well I tell you what now when we came out here earlier on the rain was kind of pouring down I was getting a little bit worried looking at the ramp here we're standing beside the ramp but the sun is after coming out here now and we're after watching the first few teams of the second half of the day going so it's given us the motivation and we're looking forward just get going now is what we're looking forward to.

Whatever about

Not sure if she's going to talk, but Tommy, she's a superstar in her own right.

Absolutely.

She's after going through the junior course there this morning, Liam.

And if I can hang tough as long as Ada hung tough, she was on it for a minute and a half.

So she's really set the pace for the rest