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Sam Olsen
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Sep 25, 2026
Could the AI race lead to catastrophe?
J
12:59Jake JamesGUEST
So, I mean, that's the kind of issue there is that, you know, it's not, you know, a government with the finger on the button, it's everyone in theory having access to a button somewhere.
S
13:19Sam OlsenGUEST
And this is the real crux of the matter, is that America is at the moment in the lead in the frontier race.
S
13:28Sam OlsenGUEST
China's just behind it, according to the Stanford report earlier this year, about 2.7-ish percent behind, which is really within touching distance, as we said.
S
13:39Sam OlsenGUEST
So at the moment, yes, the frontier dangers are probably more on America's side.
S
13:45Sam OlsenGUEST
But the open weight approach that China has taken, in other words, allowing those AI models to be distributed much more broadly around the world, means that if something were to happen within the Chinese system, it would be much harder for the Chinese to be able to claw it back and to put controls over it.
16:06
Is there, Sam, a potential? for it to play a meaningful role as some kind of honest broker between these two superpowers when it comes to AI?
Trump-Xi summit: Has Iran flipped the balance of power?
3:23
23:21

Tom Newton DunnHOST
But what's your take? Is China strengthened by what's going on in the Gulf, and if so, in, in what areas, what dimensions of power?
S
3:30Sam OlsenGUEST
It's a really good question, [clears throat] and I think that it is absolutely clear that the balance of power is changing and has been tweaked, I wouldn't say massively changed, but definitely tweaked by the last few months.
S
3:45Sam OlsenGUEST
So what we have to remember is that China, you know, needs GDP growth, and for this year we calculated that it's going to need about $300 billion of extra, that's extra, export to meet its GDP targets for 2026.
S
4:01Sam OlsenGUEST
[lips smack] Now, the trouble is, is that with the Iran war has caused mayhem in the geoeconomic markets, meaning that it's, A, less likely that people will be able to afford all those Chinese exports, and B, those exports are going to be more expensive anyway because of the rising energy costs and, and, and the mayhem on the, on the energy markets generally.
S
4:20Sam OlsenGUEST
So those are things that are pretty bad for China, and that's why it wants an end to this.
S
4:24Sam OlsenGUEST
But actually behind closed doors, they will be very happy with the fact that America yet again has shown that, that it likes rampaging, to use a word that the Chinese like using, around the Middle East with not necessarily any strategic aim fully thought out, and is making bad choices with its allies, annoying its allies, whether they're in the Gulf or whether they are in Europe, and it's basically weakening America's strategic position.
19 MINS LATER

Tom Newton DunnHOST
Tell us in a, in a sentence or two how that differs from the Lydian Trap and what you mean by the Lydian Trap.
How should the UK manage its relationship with China?
7:40

Cindy YuGUEST
Um, you know, this kind of idea that domestic policy actually has very real impact on foreign policy, and vice versa, is something that I think we need to understand much more, instead of just putting them in different buckets.
S
7:53Sam OlsenGUEST
In the short term, it's all about not burning bridges, and so even though I have been a critic of, of British engagement, uh, with China many times over the years [chuckles], um, we are doing the right thing by keeping the, the relationship warm.
S
8:05Sam OlsenGUEST
There's no benefit to the UK in just annoying them and making them into an enemy, and the same way with America as well.
S
8:11Sam OlsenGUEST
But in the medium term, we have to realize that building out our own strength with m- like-minded countries is absolutely in our interest.
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8:20Sam OlsenGUEST
You know, it's something which people don't recognize, but just today, China has such a grip of our supply chains, and we've gotta be diff- we've gotta differentiate between supply chain dom- uh, dominance and trade dominance.
