What is that type of portfolio no longer protecting people from? And how does Bitcoin help when it can also fall just like stocks do?

Yeah, so we put out a report last month, basically making the case for a 10% allocation to Bitcoin for most investors.

And the rationale for that report really came down to... looking at what portfolios have been over the past 40, 50 years, mainly being a 60-40 mix of stocks and bonds, and what that portfolio is no longer accomplishing.

We mainly pick on bonds.

I think bonds are very easy to pick on these days.

But historically, they've been a fantastic investment.

Between 1980 and 2020, bonds had actually great returns.

So if you could explain the math behind those numbers, I would love to hear it.

So yeah, let's dive in if you're ready to share it.

Yeah, sure.

Maybe I can start with just quickly looking at bonds and how much different of an investment they are today compared to 40 years ago, and then can move on to why stocks aren't really the answer to bonds either.

Yeah, I guess starting with this visual, what we wanted to get across is that bonds actually did make sense for a while.

There's a reason why a lot of people still trust bonds.

It's because they've built up a reputation over 40, 50 years as being a great, stable investment.

Between 1980 and 2020, bonds actually... provided a lot of returns, about 8% every year when you combine both the coupon interest rate that you're getting, as well as the capital appreciation of the underlying value of bonds as interest rates decline.

But I really wonder what you think.

Maybe to actually get into it, like how widespread does Bitcoin adoption need to be? And how much does each investor need to allocate to reach a price target like that?

Yeah, so I guess to walk through how we arrived, just to say it explicitly, in the article, we say that within the next three to five years, the price of Bitcoin could be someplace between $250,000 and $840,000.

That's a wide range, and it comes from basically three assumptions, which are how many investors are going to be allocating the Bitcoin, What is the average size of their Bitcoin allocation? And from those two assumptions, we can estimate total capital inflows to Bitcoin over time.

And then the third assumption is really, you know, what is the multiplicative effect of those inflows on the market cap? So if I invest a dollar in Bitcoin, the market cap of Bitcoin is going to go up by some multiple of one dollar.

And so it's really layering three assumptions on top of each other.

I'm pretty confident in the first two assumptions we made.

So in terms of how widespread Bitcoin investing will be.

How did you guys come to that 10% number? Why not 2%, 5%, 20%?