The website is OxfordEconomics.com, where you can follow all of their research.

Take our forecast, for example, 2.3% GDP growth for the U.S. this year, which is a little bit of a disappointment relative to what we thought at the beginning of the year before the conflict in the Middle East began.

Of that, roughly half a point is because of the direct investment, because of AI.

We have to keep in mind that these hyperscalers are investing hand over foot in a lot of things, a lot of equipment, a lot of software.

But we import a good chunk of that.

But I think the other piece that you need to add into this is that this AI investment enthusiasm and excitement has been driving up the stock market.

And the stock market is a key support to consumer spending, particularly among higher income households.

Ryan, does the Fed being less clear also make bond markets jumpier and more unstable for longer? And if so, who ends up paying for that through higher borrowing costs?

I don't think it causes a structural shift or a level shift in interest rates.

I think it just adds more uncertainty and volatility.

So every employment number, every consumer price index or the PCE deflator, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, which is each of those numbers, I think markets are going to be just you're going to see larger responses in one direction or the other, either viewing it as being a hawkish shift for the Federal Reserve or a dovish shift.

So you're going to get a lot more volatility in short term interest rates.

And, you know, I do think this is where one of the costs of being less transparent rears its ugly head fairly quickly because the markets are going to try to glean what is the Fed's reaction function, what is you know, this employment number mean for, you know, the path of monetary policy over the next two, three, four meetings.

And that's where you're going to get a lot of volatility in both, you know, short-term interest rates and then long-term interest rates as well, because the long end of the yield curve is a function of the expected path of real short-term interest rates.

Does that make the Fed look like an outlier? And is that necessarily a risky move?