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Rupesh Parikh

Rupesh Parikh

Aug 20, 2026

21:29
So was it not as bad really as the, the percent decline that we saw today?
21:34
I, I think that's correct.
21:35
Again, they, they did miss numbers.
21:37
Even if you strip out pharmacy, general merchandise did slow, so there was incremental softening sequentially, but pharmacy was a real bag wi- big headwind.
21:45
And the trick here is, you know, when things are going well, uh, investors, including the Walmart pharmacy tailwind within their numbers and in the valuation, and now that things slow, it makes it harder to strip out pharmacy and try to come up with more of an adjusted number.
21:57
So that's where this gets tricky.
21:58
When you have a stock trading at, or was trading at, you know, mid-30s plus, uh, everything needs to be perfect.
23:36
Um, in, in terms, though, of what Walmart and Target earnings are telling us about the US consumer, what is the message that you're getting?
15:08
Do those higher prices drive people to Costco or away from Costco?
15:11
Yes, I think Costco benefits just given their superior value proposition.
15:14
So if you look at Costco's box, on the food side, they're seeing more low to mid-single-digit inflation.
15:20
Now in general merchandise, you're seeing prices go back into positive territory.
15:24
So there is some inflation there, but as higher-income consumers and even the middle-income consumers seek value, they tend to go to Costco just given their superior value proposition.
15:33
So I think they win in this type of environment.
16:03
What names can benefit outside of Costco? Which ones do you see as particularly hurt?
16:06
Yeah, so our other two topics are Walmart and Ulta.
36:49
When it comes to inflation, I guess, softening, getting closer to that 2% target, does that directly benefit Walmart? Does that actually lead people to go to other retailers? Because as inflation was spiking, again, as I mentioned, we heard a lot of people saying they were, I guess, trading down to Walmart to try to find deals.
37:04
Yeah, so I think if you have inflation at, let's say, 1% to 2%, I think that's attractive for Walmart.
37:09
So if you see less inflation in food, you can see consumers navigate to more discretionary categories.
37:14
And Walmart makes more money in apparel, home, and some of those more discretionary areas.
37:18
So it could end up actually being a net positive.
37:20
Now, you don't want deflation.
37:21
But yeah, if you're in that, let's call it 0%, 1%, 2% type range, I think that's OK for Walmart.
37:47
What are you expecting to see from all these names?
17:55
So what should we take from that when we're trying to discern how the consumer is feeling and, more importantly, spending right now?
18:02
Yes, I think it's very much a mixed backdrop.
18:04
So I call it more as an evolving discretionary backdrop.
18:07
So you look on the positive side, some categories like grocery sales are doing really well.
18:11
Online, non-store retailers also had a strong month in February.
18:15
And then there's also areas of weakness, such as consumer electronics, home furnishing, sporting goods.
18:20
So it really is very category-specific, some of the challenges you saw in February.
21:24
What about in your discretionary names? What could be winners there?

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