So when you look at the oil price, what do you see in terms of the move higher?

Well, this is what we deem as the greed and fear rotation between greed equities and fear, uh, oil case in point as part of that inflation, but also geopolitical scare, which is now being revived.

Watch the headlines that we've just been, uh, uh, reading out just, just now.

Um, and certainly, uh, uh, at the heart of that, renewed energy volatility, uh, which has now, uh, snapped back higher from oversold conditions in line with the renewal of hostilities.

Uh, that is reigniting inflation pressures.

Our, uh, base case since the start of this year is, I mean, a revival of macro volatility, but that underpinned by a, a broader commodity, uh, supercycle, uh, strength, um, which, which we can discuss in a moment, uh, with oil at the heart of that.

So we're looking for, uh, further upside, uh, with potential spike risk r- uh, still at play on oil.

Uh, where does oil sit relative to other commodities in terms of attractiveness in your view?

What about the breakout of yields, which would come along with higher inflation?

I mean, that's definitely a generational, uh, move that is in play.

Uh, the bottom is in, um, and the historical threshold of five, five and a half percent, uh, we were just shy of on the ten-year, um, and earmarked in the, on the thirty-year, as you just mentioned.

And there's all kinds of macro implications from that.

We have unwound in the short term, and, and we do see, uh, perhaps a little bit of an unwind, uh, tactically, but, um, higher for longer.

That's supported by the Kondratiev, uh, uh, long wave cycle, which we study as part of our cycle work.

And also there's, um, a pattern match with the nineteen seventies inflation analog, um, which is not a direct repeat, but in terms of supply-side pressures, fiscal expansion, stagflationary characteristics, um, is, uh, similar.

Could we see another super spike?

Which trends seem strongest and most resilient, at least for now, and which trends are likely to weaken or even reverse during the remainder of this year?

Great opening question, particularly as we look into the second half of 2026.

At RW Advisory, we distinguish between structural and tactical trend because markets rarely move in a straight line.

Structurally, we remain constructive on AI infrastructure, precious metals and strategic commodities.

These are supported by our 2026 cycle convergence thesis.

where business, market, and secular cycles are aligning alongside fiscal expansion, geopolitical fragmentation, and investment in energy and digital infrastructure.

Tactically, however, our current macro theme is shaken, not stirred still.

So what are the implications for US and UK interest rates and for the 10-year government bond yields over the next 18 months? And looking around the world, which bond markets look particularly attractive or unattractive from your perspective?