How much does the outcome of that election matter for markets? And what are the polls telling us today?

Absolutely.

I mean, the polls matter immensely given the market wants to see willingness and ability from policymakers to address France's domestic challenges.

Now, you mentioned that there was some skepticism about the budget forecasts, and that's absolutely right.

Our economists, the High Council of Public Finances in France, which is the budget watchdog, both believe that the government's growth forecasts for next year are quite optimistic.

So the market wants to see a credible political solution for France's growth and fiscal challenges.

And this is where the parliamentary elections and the presidential elections become so important.

How much of the move in that spread do you think reflects the broader bond market dynamics that we've talked about here on the Barclays Brief a lot? And how much is specifically about French politics and French public finances?