
Robin Winkler
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Jun 10, 2026
Germany, the Fed, and the World Cup
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12:17

Shreyas GopalHOST
So Robin, is this all down to the energy shock that's unfolding or is there something beneath the surface in Germany that you find interesting in the details?

Robin WinklerGUEST
Well, yeah, first of all, thank you for reminding me that I'm turning 40 pretty soon.

Robin WinklerGUEST
It's not a great feeling, but I don't remember the Wall Street crash of 1987, so I can't be that old.

Robin WinklerGUEST
To your question on Germany, it does feel as though the momentum has really been quite negative, especially compared to last spring.

Robin WinklerGUEST
You'll remember that a year ago, maybe there was a little bit too much exuberance in markets with respect to Germany, and the pendulum has really swung in the other direction now to the point where We're talking about the possibility of a technical recession over the summer now.

Robin WinklerGUEST
I don't think that's the base case just yet, but it's certainly something that can't be ruled out with every day that we don't have a resolution and normalization in the Middle East.

Robin WinklerGUEST
What's responsible for that? I would say largely the energy shock, or let me be more precise, the situation in the Middle East, which is partly an energy shock, partly an uncertainty shock.
7 MINS LATER

Shreyas GopalHOST
But is this something the market, if you take a thousand foot view, should be keeping its eye on?