R
Robert Timper
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Jul 24, 2026
What We Got Wrong About The World Cup (A LOT)
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5:28Marko PapicHOST
Sorry, what went wrong in the group stage, and then what did you guys notice, fix for the knockout?

Robert TimperGUEST
So just as a quick reminder, the kind of key input into the model is the player rating data from the game FIFA.

Robert TimperGUEST
Um, and we aggregate that data for every team in various ways for attackers, midfield, wingers, et cetera, um, to basically Get a sense of how strong each national team is.

Robert TimperGUEST
And then we also take into account a couple of other variables, such as kind of experience measured by the number of caps that, that players have had, or something like age, um, which can be either positive in the sense of experience or a negative in a sense of declining kind of fitness.

Robert TimperGUEST
Um, and so based on that, we predict every game individually, um, based on the difference between these variables between the, the teams that play each other, and then we can, for the group stage, come up with an expected number of points that, that each team gets, and based on that we get, um, who, who's most likely to qualify.
19 MINS LATER
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26:05Jeremy PelossoGUEST
And on top of that, most of those guys have been playing together since youth teams, which is not the case for many other national teams.