
Robert Kavcic
3
APPEARANCES
3
PODCASTS
012
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Oct 7, 2026
E46—Impact of Higher Rates on Canada’s Housing Slump
18:42
19:10
19:34
25:11

Bipin RaiHOST
Can you comment a bit about the impact of immigration policy on the domestic housing market and what it's meant? And, you know, Nobody has a crystal ball here, but on a go forward basis, I mean, how do you think we're positioned in terms of immigration policy? Certainly it won't be as open as it was over the past 10 years, but are there potentials for changes there that could cause us to recalibrate the fundamentals in the housing market here?

Robert KavcicGUEST
There's domestic demographic demand, which was the factor that really made us very bullish on housing for probably a good 10 years coming into the pandemic, is the millennial cohort was aging and creating households and driving household demand, right? That is more or less peaked.

Robert KavcicGUEST
The immigration side was the real wild card where, of course, we always had pretty stable 1% population growth in Canada, driven mostly by immigration.
5 MINS LATER

Bipin RaiHOST
I mean, how realistic is it that the housing supply gap will close over the course of the next decade?
Cheap Mortgages Aren't Coming Back: What That Means for House and Condo Prices
4:36
4:43
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35:44

John PasalisHOST
and the Bank of Canada's expectations in terms of rates? So what are some of the more immediate things that are kind of pushing rates up right now?

Robert KavcicGUEST
So immediate things would just be growth and inflation, and that's characteristic of the actual economic cycle.

Robert KavcicGUEST
So inflation in the US is still kind of, depending on the measure you look at, bouncing around 3%, 3.5% for core inflation.

Robert KavcicGUEST
Expectations in the bond market have been more or less stable as you get out to longer term inflation expectations.

Robert KavcicGUEST
And the other side of that would be growth and kind of just goes underreported is the fact that domestic economic growth in the US is firing right now.

Robert KavcicGUEST
The consumer is solid and business investment is just running on the back of the AI build out.
30 MINS LATER

John PasalisHOST
Now, you know, on this idea that we're not really building a lot of family-sized housing, I mean, is there anything that you think policymakers can do to reverse that trend so that we're not only building apartment buildings that you know we do start to see more um more development of you know starter homes across Southern Ontario like are there any specific policy levers that you think can be pulled to encourage that obviously they remove the HST but that's short term so is there anything else do you think that can be done to kind of try to encourage that
Has Housing Bottomed?
4:13

Ben ReitzesHOST
The bottoming itself is happening in which markets then? So geographically, there are markets that never really got into a problem to