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Robert Kavcic

Robert Kavcic

Oct 7, 2026

18:42
Can you comment a bit about the impact of immigration policy on the domestic housing market and what it's meant? And, you know, Nobody has a crystal ball here, but on a go forward basis, I mean, how do you think we're positioned in terms of immigration policy? Certainly it won't be as open as it was over the past 10 years, but are there potentials for changes there that could cause us to recalibrate the fundamentals in the housing market here?
19:06
I think so.
19:06
And I think there are two sides of the demographic story.
19:10
There's domestic demographic demand, which was the factor that really made us very bullish on housing for probably a good 10 years coming into the pandemic, is the millennial cohort was aging and creating households and driving household demand, right? That is more or less peaked.
19:26
So millennial is kind of pushing up into their high 30s.
19:30
Now incremental housing demand is falling off.
19:34
The immigration side was the real wild card where, of course, we always had pretty stable 1% population growth in Canada, driven mostly by immigration.

5 MINS LATER

25:11
I mean, how realistic is it that the housing supply gap will close over the course of the next decade?
4:36
and the Bank of Canada's expectations in terms of rates? So what are some of the more immediate things that are kind of pushing rates up right now?
4:43
So immediate things would just be growth and inflation, and that's characteristic of the actual economic cycle.
4:50
So inflation in the US is still kind of, depending on the measure you look at, bouncing around 3%, 3.5% for core inflation.
4:59
Expectations in the bond market have been more or less stable as you get out to longer term inflation expectations.
5:06
But that's effectively what the Fed is pushing back against.
5:11
And the other side of that would be growth and kind of just goes underreported is the fact that domestic economic growth in the US is firing right now.
5:20
The consumer is solid and business investment is just running on the back of the AI build out.

30 MINS LATER

35:44
Now, you know, on this idea that we're not really building a lot of family-sized housing, I mean, is there anything that you think policymakers can do to reverse that trend so that we're not only building apartment buildings that you know we do start to see more um more development of you know starter homes across Southern Ontario like are there any specific policy levers that you think can be pulled to encourage that obviously they remove the HST but that's short term so is there anything else do you think that can be done to kind of try to encourage that
4:13
The bottoming itself is happening in which markets then? So geographically, there are markets that never really got into a problem to
4:20
begin with.
4:20
So we can ignore those.
4:21
We can ignore most of the prairies.
4:23
Calgary's weakened a little bit, fine, but it came off pretty hot levels.
4:27
We can ignore like Montreal, Quebec.
4:31
Those markets never weakened.
9:02
Yeah.

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