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Robert Eaton

Robert Eaton

Principal & Consulting Actuary at Milliman specializing in long-term care insurance, life insurance, and health products.

Jun 10, 2026

6:01
What, what are some of the key results you saw from the analysis in the report?
6:04
report?We wanted to examine, you know, were there places, uh, in the, in the US that had more cognitive-based long-term care incidence rates than we might otherwise expect, or were there places where we would have fewer cognitive claim incidence rates? And so, uh, collecting this data across, uh, on a, in a nationwide basis and looking at it by, uh, the states that the policy holders are in, we created kind of state-by-state scores and mapped against the nationwide average, uh, how much did the state of, you know, Kentucky or Alabama or, or Maine, h- how much, uh, were their cognitive incidence rates compared with, you know, the nationwide average? Were they particularly higher or lower? And we were interested in, in trying to understand, is there a relationship between places where there might be much higher or much lower cognitive incidence rates for long-term care claims than there were the supply of neurologists? And Dr.
7:04
Rao has worked on a paper, uh, that I'll let her describe on neurology deserts, and that's really kind of the marriage of the work that she's done, uh, with the supply of neurologists, and the data that we collected, uh, the actuarial data, the historical long-term care experience data, and kind of putting those two together.
7:22
So, you know, what we found is there's a small but modest correlation, 10% correlation between the supply of neurologists and, uh, the cognitive incidence rate relativity for long-term care claims in our historical window.

8 MINS LATER

15:34
So the jury's still out and, you know, it's a wait-and-see game.
15:38
One thing that I, I really wanna highlight that Dr. Rao has brought up, and, and Dr. Rao, you did a great job of this, if you'll remember at the second Long-Term Care Medical Symposium that the Society of Actuaries sponsored.
15:49
We were really happy to, to have you and others there.
15:52
These are some of the external factors, Dale, that I don't know that a lot of actuaries can really do a great job of planning for.

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