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Robbie Orvis
Senior Director of Modeling and Analysis at the energy policy think tank Energy Innovation, and a frequent clean-energy policy commentator.
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OCT 5
Jul 10, 2025
The Megabill And The Green Economy
8:54
14:28

Niala BoodhooHOST
And so, what implications could repealing these credits have when we're talking about the clean energy economy overall when it comes to wind and solar?
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9:03Robbie OrvisGUEST
Yeah, so we see in our modeling a lot of project cancellations, and that's happening for a couple different reasons.
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9:10Robbie OrvisGUEST
So, yes, some wind and solar and battery storage will continue to be built because that's basically the only thing that can be built right now.
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9:18Robbie OrvisGUEST
There's a huge, um, backlog for new gas turbines, uh, and, and people are saying they can't deliver more than what's been contracted in the next seven years, and we have this huge growth in demand coming primarily from data centers, but also from, from load growth, fastest, um, load growth overall we've seen in basically 20 years.
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9:38Robbie OrvisGUEST
So, there will be solar and wind and battery storage projects that get built, but, and there's two important things here.
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9:48Robbie OrvisGUEST
So, if there's a utility that needs to build something and that something has to basically be wind, solar, or storage, 'cause that's what can be built on this timeframe, to keep the lights on, that's now twice as expensive more or less, and those will be passed directly to you and me and industry, uh, who are, who are paying for the higher cost and the prices.

Niala BoodhooHOST
Uh, w- what do you think about that in terms of the business picture of all of this?
The Big Beautiful Bill is close to passing. What would it mean for clean energy in the US?
30:45

Ed CrooksHOST
Do you wanna just talk us through what happened there? What was your understanding of where that came from, why that came up, and why it's now gone away again?
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30:57Robbie OrvisGUEST
Love it when Congress drops legislation on Friday evening, um, and then tax is gone within 48 hours.
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31:06Robbie OrvisGUEST
The Senate Budget Committee released their version of the tax, which is ultimately what, what then was used for the vote-a-rama.
24 MINS LATER
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55:44Amy Myers JaffeGUEST
But you have a lot of, you know, historical ties in your businesses that are already built up here, so I think it's a very complicated landscape.
It’s looking bleak for clean energy in the US as Congress threatens to shred the Inflation Reduction Act
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14:52Ray LongGUEST
So it matters, Amy, what the policy is and that we have durable policy going forward.
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14:58Robbie OrvisGUEST
I just, I wanna add two things 'cause I think a big component of this is actually cost.
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15:03Robbie OrvisGUEST
There's a couple of ways in which the currently proposed tax is effectively a tax, right? So if we lose transferability, even if developers can continue to take advantage of tax credits, they now have to go out and find tax equity partners, which is a huge haircut and is a direct cost increase on ratepayers.
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15:22Robbie OrvisGUEST
And critically, if we're talking about needing to win this AI race and build out all this cheap energy to do it, it's a direct impediment to doing that because it raises costs of doing that.
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15:32Robbie OrvisGUEST
Prior to transferability, many developers, in order to take advantage of the tax credits, they may not have enough tax liability to monetize the tax credits.
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15:42Robbie OrvisGUEST
So they would have to go find a huge entity, usually a bank, that has enough tax liability and partner with them to basically sell them the credits, and the banks take a huge amount of the value of that credit.
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15:54Robbie OrvisGUEST
So I've seen estimates from 30 to 50% of the value of the in- investment or production tax credit.
18 MINS LATER