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Robbie Orvis

Senior Director of Modeling and Analysis at the energy policy think tank Energy Innovation, and a frequent clean-energy policy commentator.

Jul 10, 2025

8:54
And so, what implications could repealing these credits have when we're talking about the clean energy economy overall when it comes to wind and solar?
9:03
Yeah, so we see in our modeling a lot of project cancellations, and that's happening for a couple different reasons.
9:10
So, yes, some wind and solar and battery storage will continue to be built because that's basically the only thing that can be built right now.
9:18
There's a huge, um, backlog for new gas turbines, uh, and, and people are saying they can't deliver more than what's been contracted in the next seven years, and we have this huge growth in demand coming primarily from data centers, but also from, from load growth, fastest, um, load growth overall we've seen in basically 20 years.
9:38
So, there will be solar and wind and battery storage projects that get built, but, and there's two important things here.
9:44
One is this bill now basically doubles the cost of doing that.
9:48
So, if there's a utility that needs to build something and that something has to basically be wind, solar, or storage, 'cause that's what can be built on this timeframe, to keep the lights on, that's now twice as expensive more or less, and those will be passed directly to you and me and industry, uh, who are, who are paying for the higher cost and the prices.
14:28
Uh, w- what do you think about that in terms of the business picture of all of this?
30:45
Do you wanna just talk us through what happened there? What was your understanding of where that came from, why that came up, and why it's now gone away again?
30:54
Yeah.
30:55
Quite the, uh, roller coaster ride.
30:57
Love it when Congress drops legislation on Friday evening, um, and then tax is gone within 48 hours.
31:04
But you're right.
31:06
The Senate Budget Committee released their version of the tax, which is ultimately what, what then was used for the vote-a-rama.
31:13
And it did a couple things.

24 MINS LATER

55:44
But you have a lot of, you know, historical ties in your businesses that are already built up here, so I think it's a very complicated landscape.
14:52
So it matters, Amy, what the policy is and that we have durable policy going forward.
14:58
I just, I wanna add two things 'cause I think a big component of this is actually cost.
15:03
There's a couple of ways in which the currently proposed tax is effectively a tax, right? So if we lose transferability, even if developers can continue to take advantage of tax credits, they now have to go out and find tax equity partners, which is a huge haircut and is a direct cost increase on ratepayers.
15:22
And critically, if we're talking about needing to win this AI race and build out all this cheap energy to do it, it's a direct impediment to doing that because it raises costs of doing that.
15:32
Prior to transferability, many developers, in order to take advantage of the tax credits, they may not have enough tax liability to monetize the tax credits.
15:42
So they would have to go find a huge entity, usually a bank, that has enough tax liability and partner with them to basically sell them the credits, and the banks take a huge amount of the value of that credit.
15:54
So I've seen estimates from 30 to 50% of the value of the in- investment or production tax credit.

18 MINS LATER

33:48
Uh-oh.

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