in, in the end, you know, we built excess capacity of block space, and now finally we're going to fill that block space with a lot of stuff.

So I think that when I, when I joined crypto, and I joined crypto in 2014, I think crypto was a solution without a problem.

And the, the reason why I say that is because it was always like, "Why do you need a token for that?" The, the, the big question when, when I came into crypto was, "You don't need a token for that.

You don't need a..." And everything we said was, "You don't need a token for that." And everyone like said-- like treated tokens if they were a bad thing.

Today, I think as you wrote in one of your, uh, essays, everything is going to be a token 'cause it's a single use case, a, a single use case token.

So we're now tokenizing everything and putting everything onto chain, and everything becomes tradable.

So computing power all of a sudden becomes tradable.

Download it now.

Yeah

...

so let me break it down for you.

And I think again, let's maybe just look at one or two charts just because I just, I just think it paints a real picture here.

So you and I have been around for, for a long time.

We've seen multiple Bitcoin bull markets, and I think if we go back to the bull markets, I think the last bull market for Bitcoin was the first bull market where Bitcoin was actually accepted, right? Like you could say that, you know, the f- the first bull markets were very small on the Bitcoin radar.

This was 2017.

So Ron, you were gonna give us your second reason for why we're in a, uh, in crypto's first real bull ma- bull market.

The first time, and I am here for it.

Yeah, so I mean, ultimately, we got to highs on Bitcoin of about 81, 82,000.

We were hovering around 81, 82,000.

And we slightly pulled back.

Now, there's probably like, you could bring it down to technical and fundamental reasons, right? The technical reasons are actually pretty simple, right? There's a thing in technical analysis, which is called the golden cross.

And actually, believe it or not, the golden cross is a very bullish indicator.

Generally, after a golden cross, we actually move pretty far up.

But how do you see crypto markets performing as we get to the end of the year through the lens of some of the events that you've just unpacked?

The first time, and I am here for it.

Yeah, so I mean, ultimately, we got to highs on Bitcoin of about 81, 82,000.

We were hovering around 81, 82,000.

And we slightly pulled back.

Now, there's probably like, you could bring it down to technical and fundamental reasons, right? The technical reasons are actually pretty simple, right? There's a thing in technical analysis, which is called the golden cross.

And actually, believe it or not, the golden cross is a very bullish indicator.

Generally, after a golden cross, we actually move pretty far up.

But how do you see crypto markets performing as we get to the end of the year through the lens of some of the events that you've just unpacked?

If you want to start with Bitcoin and maybe some of the other big alts that you've been keeping your eye on, I will let you take free rein here and share your screen and tell us what you've been looking at.

So, I mean, I think it's important to look at where we're at.

And I know a lot of people were calling for another leg down.

I was of a different opinion.

I actually tweeted it.

I said, I think this market's about to trick us.

Everyone's expecting one more leg down and the end of the bear market in October.

Yeah, I'm going to hand over the microphone to you to keep telling me, telling us why you think and what the biggest trend might be.

Is that the same kind of force that, that broke gold's relationship with rates? And, and what does liquidity actually mean for someone holding metal first?

Well, I mean, I, I think the relationship has changed, and I think the re- you gotta look at the reason for the liquidity.

The reason for the liquidity is because the US is literally printing more money, and they're inflating their dollar away, right? They've got...

They...

The, the US debt clock hit $40 trillion the other day.

The estimated debt repayments are over $1.5 trillion, and those were all financed at about 3.5%.

Uh, now the real...

Yeah

Eth versus Bitcoin chart, I assume, right? Eth versus Bitcoin?

This is Eth versus Bitcoin.

This is a chart of Eth versus Bitcoin.

You kind of want to say that Eth-- Bitcoin was the first use case of this technology.

What is the first use case of te- of this technology? Digital value and the ability to move digital value online.

We then launched a protocol, which was the first real protocol which said you can actually contract digital value and transfer it without human intervention in this thing called a smart contract.

And the world went crazy about all the potential use cases, right? Here it is.

No, I never heard of it.

How do I know which one is true?

You don't.

You have to assign probabilities to, to... by looking at different patterns, right? So the...

if you're following the four-year cycle, if that's your, your thesis, then you would say, if you're following the four-year cycle, this has to be a bear flag, and at some point, the bear flag has to break down.

Problem is, if on the chart the bear flag has broken the trend, then you've gotta reevaluate your thesis and say, "Hold on a second.

Is, is this cycle maybe different, or is this just a normal, uh, uh, four-year cycle?" I think that the four-year cycle is a very weak thesis 'cause they're not really based on anything.

It's based on the fact that the Bitcoin supply halves every four years.

Yeah.

Yeah

... let's just look at the charts.

The charts will tell us what the move's gonna be, and then we should just maybe just find the news that could cause the, the moves.

So I mean, if you look at the Bitcoin structure, very scary structure.

I'm not happy about the structure at all.

Don't like it at all.

Um, and I, I think if you look at it, basically you've got that bear flag that everyone's been talking about.

Okay.

Ran, how bearish were you Saturday when you saw Crude doing what it was doing? And how surprised were you that Bitcoin's holding here?

What I did on Friday, and I did it again on Friday, I went long oil, short Cospi, long Bitcoin.

So what is my logic? My logic is I knew there was going to be an escalation.

I didn't realize just how big it was going to be.

So I took a long on oil.

And then I thought if oil goes up, risk is going to go down.

What's the highest beta risk at the moment? So my options were NASDAQ or to go more oil-related risk, which is Cospi or Nikkei.

So Gary, I guess, Gary, just to answer your question, ran right along while everybody was trying to get short.

Yeah

... just, just below a, a, an all-time high.

You look at silver, silver is at an all-time high.

You look at gold, gold's at an all-time high, and I don't think I need to spell it out.

I don't think I n- I need to spell it out for your viewers.

And so you gotta ask the question, is something broken or something wrong in crypto, or is there another explanation? And I wanna go through both, both situations.

So it's very hard for me to believe that every asset class in the world and every risk asset class in the world is at all-time highs, and the one risk asset class which is a perfect fit...

What are they interested in? What are they not interested in? How would you gauge their sentiment and interest level now versus, let's say, just a year ago?

altcoins have outperformed bitcoin a bit as you just showed on this move up bitcoin got a little bump all coins generally got a bigger bump we haven't really seen that in a while i just question who's going to come back in and buy this stuff like what's going to be a catalyst that's going to bring back retail even and if they just lost their money even if they want to come back in how do they

So let me tell you what I think is confusing, no, what is hurting the market the most and confusing me the most is that I think fundamentally every market in the world is going up.

The rising tide, it really is lifting all ships.

You've got stock markets which are absolutely flying.

The NASDAQ is at an all-time high.

The S&P is at an all-time high, up 20% and 25% last year.

Then you've got silver up 200%, absolutely outperforming.

a narrative?

Yes.

And that was an embarrassing systematic collapse of the centralized part of crypto, the centralized exchanges in crypto, and specifically Binance.

I mean, let's just call a spade a spade.

And what happened in that correction is that the retail investors that had leverage got absolutely liquidated.

I mean, it was crazy.

To- tokens went to zero, 1.6 million traders got liquidated.

The official numbers say that about $20 billion was liquidated on the first day, but the real numbers, I can tell you, are way, way, way higher than that.

Okay.

I mean, the fact that you've built... built it all back and more obviously implies that you've done it largely through the business and not necessarily through the market, because we all know that Altcoins haven't exactly returned to the grandeur of that part of that cycle.

So it's actually a combination.

The business, definitely the business is much more valuable than my stake in Luna ever was.

I mean, you can't even compare.

And the business is a very big business and a very successful business, but also the portfolio.

One thing that you'll recall happened after Luna is that Solana got absolutely smashed because Solana had a double whammy.

Solana got killed with Luna, but also got killed with FTX later that year.

And you have this sort of PTSD about what kind of content you're going to create.

All

right.

Thank you.

Great to be here.

okay so um for orderly we set out on the mission to allow anyone to trade anything from anywhere that's our that's our overall mission uh we think that um you know like other d5 builders the future of of finance should be on-chain in terms of the infra.

And I think it should be omni-chain so that users can deposit and withdraw native assets from any chain.

And they can swap, they can use the assets to trade perps where the chains are abstracted away.

What will DeFi look like in the coming years and where will Orderly sort of fall into that? So first, you know, anything you have specifically coming and then, you know, how you see DeFi shaping.