Well, first off, do you have an understanding of what happened in the surge in late October here? And then I would like for you to explain your third metric of accuracy, which is this profit test for different markets.

Yeah.

um we talked about the briar score and in this particular chart that you have on the screen the briar score and the profitability test would give you roughly the same answer it will give you you know both will give 538 a higher rating than than than the market for this particular event but there are other events um where the briar score gives you know it it will reward uh it will reward good luck to a degree that you may not want to do.

So, you know, Silver Bulletin, for example, Nate Silver's forecast had a huge increase in the likelihood of Trump getting elected in August and early September of that year.

And that was because of something he called a convention bounce adjustment.

And Trump eventually won.

So if you just use a briar score, you know, you'll reward that model.

In this case, that updating that happens between the models, it's not always going to work out that that updating improves accuracy.

So it's a, it's a, a, a different model and I think they've both been very successful in different ways.

Yeah, I think they're both absolutely fantastic, uh, uh, places.On SFI, I just want to mention something, uh, in case there are graduate students listening.

So when I was a graduate student, I would just, uh, browse around in the basement of the Strand Bookstore in New York.

You know, they had relatively low-priced, uh, uh, books, uh, review copies, and so on.

And I came across this book called The Economy as an Evolving Complex System, and it's, uh, edited by Ken Arrow along with two physicists, uh, uh, Anderson and Pines.

And I re- I look at it from time to time.

It, it, it's completely astonishing.

And, and I think-

To bet on, say, the Democratic Party taking control-

The price on Polymarket is about 82 cents.

So what that means is that somebody bought the yes side of that contract for 82 cents, and somebody bought the no side of that contract for 18 cents.

If the Democrats do retake the House during the midterms, the yes side gets the dollar, otherwise the no side.

All words on which there were bets as to whether or not Armstrong would say them, though Armstrong said he was being spontaneous, and his firm prohibits betting on prediction markets.

Regardless of whether or not he had a stake in the outcome, and I believe that he did not, or at least he stated that he did not, he had the ability to make some people a little bit richer and others a little poorer.

And these kinds of markets are, um-