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Rafael Nishimura

Rafael Nishimura

Raphael Nishimura, Director of Sampling Operations at the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center, survey methodologist and expert on Brazilian election polls.

Sep 23, 2026

3:11
Can you talk a little bit about the main types of poll? Which are the trade-offs? of each one and why does the survey method matter so much to the results we get?
3:25
Yeah, for sure.
3:26
So first to start with like what you were talking at the beginning that many people, when they see a poll result, they don't really understand or know how the sausages are made.
3:42
And I have to tell you that sometimes, I mean, In general, I say that for polling, transparency is utmost important because it's really understanding the methods that understand why the results of different polls are potentially different, right? But also sometimes it's actually better that you don't see how the sausages are made because if you actually see how polls are collected, I think someone who hasn't been working with polls for quite a bit would think, well, this thing cannot possibly work.
4:25
I usually like to say that there is a life cycle for someone who works with polling.
4:33
The first stage, where most people are, is of skepticism in the sense of, How come a poll with only a thousand respondents can extrapolate to the whole population? A lot of people don't really understand that.
4:51
They're quite skeptical that's possible.

32 MINS LATER

37:07
How do you explain so many different polls bringing up essentially stable results for months?

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