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Priya Ohri-Gupta

Managing Director and Co-Head of US High Grade Research and US consumer credit analyst at Barclays, covering high grade retail and consumer sectors.

Oct 20, 2026

3:08
Can we get a little deeper into where this is showing up and what kind of divergence and bifurcation?
3:14
Yeah, this is really being underpinned by the K-shaped economy.
3:18
So if we think about that, the upper to middle income tiers that are driving the top of the K to the upper right are driving a lot of the spending supported by greater wealth creation from home prices.
3:31
equity market growth, as well as higher tax refunds earlier in the year.
3:35
So as we think about those incomes, households earning over $100,000 per year actually account for nearly 60% of expenditures in the U.S.
3:46
So that's really blowing what we're seeing.
3:48
And then if we think about lower income households, that's the bottom end of that K. They're seeing a lot more constraint around their disposable income from higher gas prices.
4:34
If the consumer begins to weaken more meaningfully, where are we going to see it? Where will the warning signs show up?

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