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Philip Su

Philip Su

Software engineer who reached Distinguished Engineer (IC9) at Meta and was Seattle site lead at OpenAI; now founder of Superphonic and author of the Molochinations newsletter.

Oct 19, 2026

7:12
Yeah, I'm probably a 4
7:13
out of 10.
7:14
Sure on it.
7:15
Like, I think part of it depends on how you define winter, right? Like, do I think we will reach Great Depression levels of unemployment? You know what I mean? I don't know.
7:27
Like, I tend to doubt it.
7:29
And the reason is we tend to smooth these curves out, right? The thing with the Great Depression that we didn't know back then and the reason we haven't had a Great Depression since, right, is because monetary policy was very different.
7:41
Right.

9 MINS LATER

16:40
What do you think they're seeing that is compelling that? Or is there kind of always some version of like something bad that could happen? What's your take on that?
14:47
What was that process like?
14:50
I think it was hard.
14:53
Um, I think it was Will Smith or someone else famous said, like, "Getting famous is amazing.
14:57
Being famous is a mixed bag, and then getting not famous is horrible." [laughs] Right? And I think that's human nature, not just about fame, but about anything, right? When we are growing in anything, like let's suppose you first get into auto repair, right? The first big job you do beyond an oil change feels like success, right? Eventually, you've, like, removed an engine, you've, like, done clutches, right? And at some point, like my age right now, I literally just started giving away some of my au- my auto repair, uh, gear 'cause I'm realizing, you know, I'm not doing this as much.
15:30
Like physically, I'm not as capable of doing it, and that feels a little bit sad.
15:34
And I think the same thing happened to me in, uh, my software career, which is on the way rising up, it always felt great, right? Other than the rising expectations and the worries [laughs] around that.
15:46
But the general thing felt like, "Oh, I'm progressing." Um, being at the top, uh, was a mixed bag.
17:36
What, what changed that made it hard to perform at that level?

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