And what are the signs ahead for, for, for these stocks and, and for these companies?

Well, the, the company's still highlighting that the demand for this is incredible.

The, the agentic, uh, new agentic AI demand is cr- creating all this new demand for CPU chips, which C- uh, TSMC produce.

Um, there's just, just the supply is the issue.

So they're looking at building out more capacity in a prudent fashion.

They would think there's a few wobbles and jitters out there in the AI world at the moment about how quickly this can all continue.

Management don't wanna go out there and just build out capacity and then be oversupplied, so they're prudently expanding supply to cater to all this demand.

Where do you see some of the biggest risks to US growth?

It's more like a fundamental kind of a shift for them here.

That's right.

The concern with Micron and a number of other AI beneficiaries is, are they over-earning? Some have called it an earnings bubble.

And management are responding to that by locking in these long-term contracts.

These are take-and-pay agreements.

These are like, we'll buy your product, and if we don't, we'll pay you anyway.

That's how strong that demand picture is.

So, Hayley, I think there were some challenging job numbers out of the States overnight that sort of were pretty much on par, but there's a bigger jobs report popping out shortly,

How much though of that asset ownership is backed up by the cheap money that you got out of Japan? We should probably talk about the carry trade,

shouldn't we? That's a great question, and a good little segue there, because we've got the Bank of Japan later today, and I think it'd be easy to dismiss them as kind of it's just another decision in their kind of gradual normalisation out of deflation, but they're expected to hike today after they hiked in June.

That's an acceleration from when they've done their very steady pace of tightening in the past.

So they're breaking the shackles of this, of what they've done in the past, and that's kind of changing the dynamics here.

Japan has been a low interest rate economy for decades, and a lot of people have used that as a funding source for borrowing in Japan, investing in higher yielding assets, and that's effectively what the carry trade is.

So when those interest rates are going up, that cost is changing, but it also affects currencies, influence the carry trade as well.

And I guess the pace of unwinding, and maybe you might sort of see some people sort of shifting out of other equities and other assets, just try and meet their obligations there, if it's a little unpredictable, but it is looking fairly predictable at the moment.

That's right.

Phil, why have those yields been rising so sharply lately?

Morning, Garth.

Not really one single catalyst.

I think there's some structural factors here.

Clearly at the heart of this is some ongoing fiscal concerns, and they're not new.

US deficit's around 6% of GDP.

and not changing anytime, anytime soon.

Someone said it was like taking a water pistol to a firefight kind of thing.

Pretty consistent picture, right? Big numbers, lots of beats, and then a bit of a fall in share prices.

That's right.

Phenomenal numbers.

45% earnings growth.

And not all that has been true earnings, but still phenomenal numbers.

But when you see some of the share price reaction to those numbers, it's been a little bit confusing.

You might often hear commentators, when they can't explain what's going on, they'll blame more investor positioning.

You can't imagine it's going to go much higher, can you? That's right.

But nobody's really looking at that at the moment.

I think there's the concern there.

Prices are still above where they were pre-crisis.

And you're right, there are definitely a few issues along the way, the thorny ones, that aren't going to be easy to solve.

And there are some other players that could easily proved to be a spoiler in this, and you saw there's still some tensions in Lebanon overnight, which, again, we'll see how that plays out and how Iran likes that.

But I think here and now, there's two-way risks in terms of the flow of oil.

That's really what this deal's about.

What did you make of that first outing of him yesterday? It was a hawkish surprise.

Phil Borkin from JB Ware joins me now to break it down, this market's had a huge run, how much fuel is left in the tank?

Oh, it's been phenomenal.

I think if we hit a positive return this week, it'll be 10 weeks in a row, which hasn't been achieved since 1985.

But like you say, it is highly concentrated.

One big trade, everyone's obsessed with AI, and it's certainly power things at the moment.

It is easy to build a bear case.

There are some risks out there, like you highlight.

What might we see in the next little while as a result of that?