With Hormuz traffic still near crisis lows, how tight does this winter actually look?

Andrew, thank you for having me on this podcast, and I would probably would like to see two separate issues here, so physical supply and prices.

So in volume terms, Qatar is not critical for Europe, and specifically for the European Union.

Its gas accounts for less than 4% of EU total annual consumption in 2025, so those volumes can be replaced pretty easily.

So I would say the real issue right now is prices.

Because greater competition with Asian buyers for alternative LNG cargos has already pushed European gas prices around 70% higher than a year ago, and if tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persist, which I don't see any solution coming soon, those elevated prices are likely to remain.

So the real test for Europeans, as you already mentioned, comes this winter, and European Union underground gas storages, because the United Kingdom doesn't have, is currently around 57% full.

Which of these lessons on grid vulnerability and resilience apply directly to European security, and which are unique to the Ukrainian theater?