curious to know how far this goes like just as a as a guide for this i this morning ran a quick thing on co-pilot just saying what using a taylor rule framework what are the kind of optimal policy settings from here what are the gaps between where rates are and where they should be in it it noted that the fed funds rate should be 100 basis points higher is that a realistic expectation to get inflation under control to maintain inflation expectations to get policy to sort of a more neutral slash restrictive setting or is it smaller than that

the market thinks that they hide once is a good chance you know one hike is is not going to do a lot so i think 50 basis points is is what we could get but i also think at the same time we had the tax cuts from the one big beautiful bill act from march and that really juiced the consumer and i think that's really flattered the performance of the economy and then offsetting that, we're now having or we've had increasing gas prices and they actually kind of offset each other one for one almost.

It's just that we had the front loading of the tax cuts and then we're going to get this steady restrictiveness from gas prices on the consumer.

And I think that works a bit like monetary policy.

So that kind of chips away.

So it just takes a bit of time.

Now, AI and markets have been a fantastic tailwind in terms of the wealth effect from that.

Why now are we getting the real yield repricing across so many economies in such coordinated or synchronous fashion, I suppose?