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Paul Moate

Paul Moate

Paul "Money" Moate is a TAB New Zealand bookmaker and media personality, delivering odds updates and betting insights on New Zealand radio and rugby podcasts.

Sep 21, 2026

96:19
We've got a good book on that.
96:21
Yeah, we certainly do.
96:22
The LA Rams, who, of course, lost in the first week in Australia at the MCG.
96:27
They're a $1.33 favourite to beat the New York Giants, who, of course, were victorious in week one against their divisional rival, the Dallas Cowboys.
96:38
They're out at $3.35, the New York Giants, against the Rams.
96:43
They're 6.5-point underdogs.
96:45
The game total is set at 47.5. Money on the Rams and there are a number of multis that are finishing on the Rams, not just to win the game at around $1.33, but also to cover the spread minus six and a half.
98:09
In terms of favourites, have the bookies been able to make this pretty clear cut or is it a little fraught here for our bookmakers?
107:18
Can you sum it up for us?
107:20
Yeah, it certainly was, Scotty.
107:23
In a word, it was good.
107:28
I still don't like it.
107:29
Yeah.
107:30
No, I don't like it.
107:31
I
108:21
Where's the early money on that?
95:01
What have you got for us this weekend,
95:03
bud? Thursday night football.
95:06
Buffalo Bills up against the Detroit Lions.
95:09
And the Bills, as we speak, $1.38.
95:13
The Lions, $3.05.
95:16
But it's the game total I want to take a look at.
95:18
It's a flat 55 at the moment.
98:24
Warriors' night's a Sunday, Paul, and I'm sure there hasn't been too much of a shift in the book at this stage.
118:57
Well, we started the show talking like that, Paulie, and it's only fitting we finish it as well.
119:03
Yeah, yeah, good job.
119:06
Here we go.
119:07
Kansas City Chiefs are $1.75. No respect for Patrick Mahomes.
119:12
They should be because they've got a big pickup, Kenneth Walker, who will be rushing the ball for the Kansas City Chiefs.
119:20
We'll give that offense another dimension.
119:23
He is currently $1.85 to score a touchdown today.
120:14
very nice um we better start throwing it forward to the knights and the warriors this weekend on sunday can get an early book going here where are we at are the warriors favorites for this at eden park
108:01
When we look through the competition now, what are the betting patterns that you are noticing?
108:08
Well, Hawke's Bay are very, very popular, so that was a very surprising result for them against North Harbour, especially at home.
108:18
Maybe Hawke's Bay were looking ahead to this week for the big battle of the bay against Bay of Plenty.
108:25
Even so, with the lead that they had, and they were very, very short live, I can tell you, the Magpies, With the lead they had, you wouldn't have expected them to give that up.
108:34
But full credit to North Harbour.
108:35
They were superb.
108:36
They are now $10 North Harbour to win the MPC for this season.
109:18
So plenty of opportunity for NFL fans to get on board as well.
0:32
Would that be correct?
0:35
Yes, sort of.
0:37
There were plenty of punters who decided to back over 57.5 points in that Baltimore test.
0:44
They didn't have to worry too much to be fair.
0:47
There were plenty of points scored.
0:50
In terms of the head-to-head, look, the South Africans weren't without their fans.
0:55
There were quite a few punters who decided that what they saw in the first three tests was enough to get them to, I guess, put their money on the South Africans.
2:38
When we look through the competition now, what are the betting patterns that you are noticing?
99:43
How are the books looking on All Blacks South Africa?
99:48
Yeah, you're right, Scotty.
99:52
The All Blacks have come in a touch.
99:55
I think they were about $2.40 yesterday.
99:57
They're $2.35 today.
99:59
South Africa have drifted from $1.55 out to $1.57. As you say, both teams have been named.
100:05
Dave Rennie going with a very experienced line-up in the fourth and final test against South Africa.
102:59
And look, this is going to be a hugely popular part of the site, I'm sure, and keeping the bookies pretty busy with a close eye on how those markets might shift.
116:29
How's the book looking there?
116:32
Yeah, warm favourites here in Northland.
116:34
I think they were $1.45 yesterday.
116:36
They're now into $1.40.
116:38
It would not surprise me to see them shorten a touch more.
116:41
I think they've already shown so far this season that they are a force to be reckoned with at Seminole Stadium up there in Northland.
116:52
So yes, $1.40 at the moment.
118:12
Seahawks still $1.55, the Pats $2.45. Are we seeing good interest in the NFL, mate?
118:22
wowee okay there you go that's coming out of the blocks on that one for sure what about the rest of the nfl action all kicks off this weekend mate i know it's a hugely popular sport with you guys
118:32
Yeah, it certainly is.
118:34
And certainly those nationally televised games as well.
118:38
What have we got on Monday? The Giants, a big divisional game here.
118:42
Giants up against the Cowboys.
118:44
The Giants, $2.30.
118:45
The Cowboys, $1.64. And then Monday night football on Tuesday, our time.
119:57
Paulie?
44:41
Paul, you got a challenge for us?
44:42
Yeah.
44:43
I thought we'd have a look at, uh, an NPC game from next week, and I'll ask you guys to price it up.
44:52
And then when the bookies actually do price it up, uh, on Monday, uh, we'll, uh, we'll come back next week and just see how close or how far away you were from actually pricing this game correctly.
45:07
Now, we can p- choose any game from next week if you want.
45:11
I thought, um, there's the Shield challenge, Northland up against Waikato.
45:16
That might be a good one to go for, 'cause we know that both teams will definitely have their best teams on the field.
48:31
... doing some interesting things, and giving players game time against a good South African, against a good New Zealand team could be one of the kinds of things he would like to do before the next World Cup You know? Um, so when you guys are looking at these odds and, you know, let's say Rassie's naming his team on a Monday, that probably gives you a bit of a favor, doesn't it, in comparison to [laughs] a Thursday naming, where you guys can make some adjustments maybe relatively early.
104:21
Talk us through all the action over the weekend.
104:25
The bookies are fairly happy, to be fair, and it all revolved around that result in South Africa where the spring box were just a wee bit too good for the All Blacks.
104:37
There was a whole heap.
104:39
of support for the All Blacks to win that game.
104:45
I remember earlier on in the week, we took a $20,000 bet on the All Blacks.
104:50
I think it was at around $2.80 to win the game.
104:53
So lots and lots of support for them to win the game.
105:40
The Warriors fans would have been pretty happy, but gee, that had to go the distance.
106:22
Is the book saying such?
106:26
Yeah, the bookies think so, and the punters think so as well.
106:30
Although the Seagulls could have done us a wee bit of a favour by bringing over a weekend, you know, rest a few players.
106:37
I mean, why are they playing Tommy Turbo? They should put him in Cottonwood.
106:41
He'll pull a hammy here and he won't be able to start next season.
106:45
So, yeah, I don't understand that.
106:47
But anyway, the Waz are $1.30, the Seagulls $3.50, and...
108:37
And given a field like that, given the nature of racing, gosh, it's a value race perhaps for some punters, isn't
96:47
She's a hard punt on the US Open at the moment, isn't it? The rain is the winner on the day.
96:53
Yeah, yeah, there's a whole lot.
96:55
I can see a whole lot of matches suspended at the moment.
96:59
And it looks like we've got, what, a couple that are still going in the men's and the women's single.
97:07
Ben Shelton, who was up two sets to one and currently up 4-3 in the fourth set.
97:15
But in terms of the futures, I'm just having a look at the woman's outright winner.
97:20
And Sabalenka still the favorite there at $4.33. Coco Gauff just in behind on the second line of bidding at $4.50. And then we're out to $8 for Jessica Pegula and Alina Rybakina at $13.
98:23
And look, first and foremost, how has punting been on the NPC? Have you guys been pretty encouraged by the betting volume so far this season?
97:00
So where would you like to start today, Mr. Mawatee?
97:04
Should we start with the NRL first? Because there's been a whole heap of movement.
97:08
We've had Teamless Tuesday and some teams are resting players, other teams are going for it.
97:13
So why don't we start there? And the game that most Kiwis will be focused on is the game between the One New Zealand Warriors and the Manly Sea Eagles.
97:25
Now, Loire's 11.5-point favourites in this game.
97:29
Of course, they've named a very, very strong squad.
97:34
No Kirk Capewell, no...
101:20
It's been a great competition so far, hasn't it?
120:55
the exit of Novak Djokovic?
120:58
Yeah out in the first round a five setter but yes he's gone and are we starting to witness the beginning of Djokovic's long and illustrious career sort of starting to dissipate slightly as we see others enter the fray but Yeah, yeah, he was well in the market, so he's gone now in terms of the outright winner.
121:24
Carlos Alcaraz, still the favourite to win the US Men's Open title at $3.
121:29
Alexander Zverev at $4.
121:32
Then we've got a couple of Americans, Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz, both paying $9 to win the title.
121:39
And then we're into double digits after that.
121:41
But, yeah, the big upset in round one was, of course...
124:33
$5 steak returned $11,065.33.
98:04
Mm.
98:04
Now into $1.52, just a, in a touch there.
98:07
So plenty of support for Arsenal to continue on their winning ways.
98:11
If you're a Manchester United fan, you might just wanna turn the volume down right now.
98:17
Of course, they got off to a losing start, losing to Hull in the first week, and there's a few punters out there who think they might just go down to the Tractor Boys, Ipswich, $6.40 Ipswich to beat Manchester United.
98:31
But they, [laughs] they've been more popular than United, who are $1.42 at home, the draw at $4.80.
98:38
Uh, the Geordies are up and about.
100:48
Mm.
97:20
Wow
97:20
...
97:20
the Lions, well done there.
97:23
Unfortunately for most punters, they were taking the All Blacks to win by 13 or more, which was pay- I think that was paying about a dollar five, a dollar six, something like that.
97:33
Um, but- At the line, the bookies were forced to move it.
97:37
I think they opened it up at a 35 and a half, so the All Blacks minus 35 and a half against the Lions, and they had to move it to 37 and a half just on the weight of money that they took on the All Blacks minus 35 and a half.
97:50
Well, that was never close, to be fair, in the end.
99:29
No different this week for Warriors fans, I'm sure.
118:19
But what else has got your interest today?
118:23
Well, let's start with that... game to close out the first week of english premier league and chelsea currently up what is it three two with um what two or three minutes left before a wee bit of added time i can tell you that the same game maltese as all falling into place certainly for chelsea supporters with all front three of the palmer pedro and rogers finding the back of the net so there'll be plenty of same game multi-punters out there who'll be waiting for the finish of this game we've also had a four and a half thousand dollar bet on chelsea at a dollar 33 that was in play and we had a two thousand three hundred dollar bid on chelsea prior to kick off at a dollar 85 so a lot of support for chelsea a lot of support for chelsea's goal scorers so it looks like it's going to be a nice little start to a Tuesday morning for plenty of Chelsea fans out there.
119:29
I don't have my screen up, but I doubt there's been too much shift in that market.
119:36
The All Blacks were $1.01.
119:38
The Lions were out at $15.
119:40
And the Lion was $35.50 yesterday.
119:44
It's moved to $37.50. And that's because of the money that we've taken on the All Blacks.
119:52
Almost, in fact, over 90% of the money At 35 and a half was on the All Blacks minus 35 and a half.
104:30
How did all things shake down for the bookmakers over the weekend?
104:35
Oh, boy, they are licking their wounds.
104:37
I can tell you that right now.
104:39
And rightly so.
104:41
When you put the All Blacks out at, I think they were $3, just north of $3 earlier this week, late last week.
104:51
Oh, sorry, last week and the week before.
104:54
Yeah, when you've got them out at around $3, and they got into, the last price I saw them before kickoff was around $2.50. Yeah.
108:25
just going to,
0:51
How did all things shake down for the bookmakers over the weekend?
0:56
Oh boy, they are licking their wounds.
0:58
I can tell you that right now.
1:01
And rightly so.
1:02
When you put the All Blacks out at, I think they were $3, just north of $3 earlier this week, late last week.
1:12
Oh, sorry, last week and the week before.
1:15
Yeah, when you've got them out at around $3 and they got into, the last price I saw them before kickoff was around $2.50.
4:40
So a bounce back expected, I see.
1:33
So I think this week we were just focusing on having a bit of a turnaround, believing in ourselves as a group, and I think on Saturday we just showed what we're capable of doing.
1:43
Yeah, everyone have written you off from your social media account anyway.
1:47
It's been a long time between drinks, but talk to us about the game.
1:51
Josh, is he here? Appreciate you jumping on the game itself.
1:54
How tight was it? Obviously the scoreline shows it was really tight, but what worked for you and the group throughout that performance?
3:27
He's getting there, but not quite.
3:30
Beautiful.
3:31
Hey, Joshy, what about you, mate? Give us an understanding of your journey, your background.
115:37
I know a couple of boys collected, but how did the TAB fare? Did the Taniwha show enough love late to make sure it was a bad night for the tab or did you set the odds accordingly well?
115:50
The bookies are very happy with the result, I can say that.
115:55
Look, Northland weren't without their friends.
115:59
There were some backers.
116:00
And, you know, when you're out at around $3, that can build up.
116:06
Canterbury were super, super popular with punters last night.
116:11
So they not only helped balance the book, they made it a winning result for us with the Tunny Far winning the Ramphilly Shield, taking it up north.
117:13
Have we seen any instant shifts in the book at the moment?
114:29
Um, now tell us what else has, uh, caught your attention as we head into the weekend.
114:35
Why don't we have a, uh, look at the first test match between the Springboks and the All Blacks, and the money continues to come for the All Blacks.
114:44
The... uh, it's not often punters get the opportunity to back the All Blacks as underdogs, or they've been given the opportunity in the first test against the Springboks, and they have grabbed that with both hands, and they are running to the bank with it.
114:59
Now $2.60, the All Blacks, after being...
115:04
I think they were north of $3 when they opened up last week.
115:07
So yeah, there has been a whole heap of action on the All Blacks, forcing the bookmakers to move them into $2.60.
115:17
The South Africans now out to $1.47.
116:40
NRL, mates, uh, it's coming at us quickly again, so, uh, there'll be lots of wagering on the Warriors this weekend taking on Souths, as there always is, and I'm sure the bookmakers are taking plenty of, uh, water on board if the Warriors get over the line.
96:23
Week one.
96:24
Yes, there certainly is.
96:27
And well, Nottingham Forest, they're $2.30 to start their season off with a win against Leeds United, who are $3.00.
96:35
The draw's at $3.40. And of course, a whole heap of Kiwi fans will be keen to see how Forest go this year.
96:43
Chris Wood is $3.10 to score a goal against Leeds this weekend.
96:49
You've mentioned a number of games at a basically a coin toss almost.
96:56
There are a lot of short price favourites as well.
99:05
What has the world come to?
96:24
Where are you heading today, mate, in terms of odds for our punters?
96:28
Well, I thought we'd have a look at the EPL because the season kicks off this weekend.
96:33
Of course, they had the charity shield on the weekend just gone by, and Arsenal just showed everyone how tough they're going to be to beat this season with that.
96:45
Very, very comprehensive win in the charity shield over Man City.
96:50
In fact, they took less than a minute to score their first goal.
96:53
They looked very, very sharp this early on in the season.
96:57
I see they are dominant favourites this weekend to open their campaign.
98:37
So what are the highlights for you across the NRL weekend?

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