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Paul Maoate

TAB NZ broadcaster and analyst providing sports odds updates and betting coverage across New Zealand radio and podcasts.

Oct 14, 2026

115:14
Wow.
115:14
And I've seen a few of their social media, uh, clips, and they seem to be a very, very happy and united team.
115:22
So the Kiwis at 2.20. 100% are they popular? Yes, they are.
115:27
They are getting backed by, uh, punters, and the bookies have also got out a String of power plays for that big match between the Kangaroos and the Kiwis.
115:39
I can tell you one that is very, very popular, uh, any two of James Fisher-Harris, Jeremy Marshall-King, Moses Leota, and Joseph Tapine to score a try.
115:49
So any two of those four players to score a try is paying $18 at the moment.
115:53
That has seen a wee bit of action.
117:23
Mm.
97:04
But NFL, mates, a big game today too.
97:08
Yeah, certainly is.
97:09
The LA Rams up against the Buffalo Bills, Monday Night Football.
97:13
Uh, don't forget, there's a promo on, uh, that game as well, a three or more leg, same game multi.
97:20
If you miss by one leg, get your money back, uh, up to $50 in bonus cash.
97:26
There's only one game today, so that game is the one, uh, that we're all looking at.
97:31
The Rams currently $1.57, the Buffalo Bills $2.45.
98:40
Paulie?
117:09
Mm
117:09
... get over the top of Tuxedo.
117:11
Of course, those two finished one-two in the Group One Holden Insurance Mile, uh, a few weeks ago.
117:19
Um, so yeah, we- we...
117:20
A couple of sensational, uh, horses going round at the moment.
117:24
Ytek, uh, I think that was his fifth Group One victory.
117:29
Boy, he was good, um, but, uh, Tuxedo also very, very good in that runner-up position.
117:54
So plenty of NFL action, Paulie.
43:53
I think he's gonna be awfully hard to catch on an improving track at Ashburton.
43:56
All right.
43:57
I- I- I'll go with the up-and-running form with what we've seen from Sweetest Thing.
44:00
It, it will take a steer.
44:02
Uh, it would be LEO Award, uh, winning po- positioning maybe, uh, for, for Haley if she can get this one up from a, from a, from a wide gate because, uh, it, it's, it's going to be, have to be bang on.
44:13
But, um, we know that Haley's, you know, had a great season, and that opportunity of picking up a black type win is, is here, uh, for her with Sweetest Thing.
44:20
A big opportunity from, uh, a very awkward gate.
48:08
Mm.
118:40
I mean, where are we? What a field.
118:45
Let's get stuck straight into it then, yes.
118:48
Hastings tomorrow, Group 1 day, the Livermore Classic Race 9, due to start at 4.44.
118:55
The favourite annual defending champion who is coming off a win in the Howden Insurance Mile, number one, Y-TAC, has seen a bit of action.
119:05
Look, he was joint favourite with Tuxedo this time yesterday.
119:11
The money has come for the defending champ, Y-TAC.
119:14
$2.90 into $2.60, which means we've seen a slight drift on Tuxedo, $2.90 out to $3.00. Outside of those, and of course those two, Quinellid, they held an insurance mile.
120:53
Paulie, what about the All Blacks and Wallabies? How has the book been and how has volumes been?
114:12
How did things shake down for the bookmakers on the NRL grand final?
114:17
Oh, plenty of support for the Chooks, to be fair.
114:20
I'm just looking down the list now.
114:22
We had a $10,000 bet at $1.44, a $10,000 bet at $1.46, a $10,000 bet at $1.40, $6,900 at $1.44.
114:26
The list just goes on and on and on.
114:27
So there was, Glenn, I had to sweat a bit those hundreds.
114:29
Yeah, if you had $10,000 on that, that last five minutes would have felt like eternity.
117:41
These are going to be real tough to pick, I reckon, mate.
113:42
I'm sure Waikato with home advantage has been played into the odds, but I'd suggest Tasman's still the favourites here, Paul?
113:49
Yes, they are.
113:50
They are still the favourites.
113:51
They're $1.20, Tasman, even though they are playing up in the Waikato, who are $4.40, says Waikato.
114:00
As you say, a big, big bearing on where teams finish inside that top eight, of course.
114:06
Manawa too will be cheering for Waikato and hoping they upset Tasman because then that will give them the opportunity to jump over the top of Tasman and into the top eight.
114:17
So yeah, plenty going on in regards to that game.
115:30
Has there been any shift at all? Has sentiment played a part here when it comes to the Newcastle Knights or are the Sydney Siders still the runaway faves?
76:44
For all their heroics in Perth, Paul Muari out to $4.40 early doors.
76:50
Yeah, hard to get a read on this one.
76:53
As we know, the fortress that is Eden Park plays a significant factor in just how short the All Blacks are.
77:01
Plus, they've had that four test match series in South Africa, well, three of them in South Africa, against the Springboks.
77:09
So they're well primed for this one.
77:12
And even though the Wallabies did beat the spring box in perth on the weekend um once again razzy was doing razzy stuff and he was you know he brings on a basically a new forward pack in the second half and he didn't start with his top team so it's very very difficult to get a read on just how good this wallaby's team is So they are out, as you say, at $4.40 and they have 13.5 point underdogs.
77:40
I'm sure Les Kiss would have been happy with quite a few things that happened in that test match against the Springboks, but the bookies not really paying the Wallabies too much respect at all.
79:27
It'll be a big week for rugby league fans and punters out there.
119:26
Tell us, what have you got for us today?
119:30
Let's have a look at the NRL Grand Final.
119:32
We've already had a wee bit of action there.
119:34
The Sydney Roosters, they're $1.44.
119:36
The Newcastle Knights, $2.80. We've had two $10,000 bets on the Roosters at $1.44 and a $5,000 bet on the Chooks at $1.44.
119:43
So plenty of action.
119:49
support for the roosters not so much for the Knights out at $2.80 I would suggest if that continues then the Knights might just drift the notch or two before we get the kickoff cause a lot of punters hoping for the fairy tale finish going from wooden spooners to premiership winners maybe if they can get the job done over the roosters this weekend but the money at the moment the early money is all about the sydney roosters at a dollar 44.
121:58
I don't make the rules.
106:53
How do the bookmakers feel about that result?
106:59
They were quite happy that the Newcastle Knights were able to upset the Penrith Panthers.
107:05
The Panthers were quite warm favourites in that preliminary final, and they were well backed by punters, to be fair.
107:12
So the Knights getting up, of course, that terrible, terrible injury to Nathan Cleary, hopefully stops.
107:21
He gets back sometime next season.
107:23
But yeah, they didn't look good.
107:25
But in terms of the actual punting, there was plenty of support for Penrith.
111:18
What have you got for us today, Paulie? Anything we can sink our teeth into?
6:56
Mm.
6:56
360 out to $4.
6:57
Whytech solid at $5.50. First Five is at six alongside ShesaDealer.
7:05
Here we go.
7:05
Had a bit of money for Media World, Steven Marsh.
7:08
Hm.
7:09
$12 into $9.50 out to double digits then.

5 MINS LATER

12:38
I'll say it right for, uh, connections, but what can we expect from him? I mean, first up here after a decent break.
120:09
Paulie, what is top of mind for you and the bookies team this weekend?
120:14
Well, seeing as Sammy's here, we'd better go to the NRL and the preliminary finals, of course.
120:21
The first one tonight, the Dolphins up against the Sydney Roosters.
120:26
The Dolphins $1.70, the Roosters $2.20.
120:28
The Roosters have just tightened in slightly since they opened up towards the beginning of the week.
120:36
So money for the Roosters.
120:38
Look, these two teams met twice during the regular season, and the Dolphins won both of them.
122:32
Where have the bookies drawn the line here?
96:19
We've got a good book on that.
96:21
Yeah, we certainly do.
96:22
The LA Rams, who, of course, lost in the first week in Australia at the MCG.
96:27
They're a $1.33 favourite to beat the New York Giants, who, of course, were victorious in week one against their divisional rival, the Dallas Cowboys.
96:38
They're out at $3.35, the New York Giants, against the Rams.
96:43
They're 6.5-point underdogs.
96:45
The game total is set at 47.5. Money on the Rams and there are a number of multis that are finishing on the Rams, not just to win the game at around $1.33, but also to cover the spread minus six and a half.
98:09
In terms of favourites, have the bookies been able to make this pretty clear cut or is it a little fraught here for our bookmakers?
107:18
Can you sum it up for us?
107:20
Yeah, it certainly was, Scotty.
107:23
In a word, it was good.
107:28
I still don't like it.
107:29
Yeah.
107:30
No, I don't like it.
107:31
I
108:21
Where's the early money on that?
95:01
What have you got for us this weekend,
95:03
bud? Thursday night football.
95:06
Buffalo Bills up against the Detroit Lions.
95:09
And the Bills, as we speak, $1.38.
95:13
The Lions, $3.05.
95:16
But it's the game total I want to take a look at.
95:18
It's a flat 55 at the moment.
98:24
Warriors' night's a Sunday, Paul, and I'm sure there hasn't been too much of a shift in the book at this stage.
118:57
Well, we started the show talking like that, Paulie, and it's only fitting we finish it as well.
119:03
Yeah, yeah, good job.
119:06
Here we go.
119:07
Kansas City Chiefs are $1.75. No respect for Patrick Mahomes.
119:12
They should be because they've got a big pickup, Kenneth Walker, who will be rushing the ball for the Kansas City Chiefs.
119:20
We'll give that offense another dimension.
119:23
He is currently $1.85 to score a touchdown today.
120:14
very nice um we better start throwing it forward to the knights and the warriors this weekend on sunday can get an early book going here where are we at are the warriors favorites for this at eden park
108:01
When we look through the competition now, what are the betting patterns that you are noticing?
108:08
Well, Hawke's Bay are very, very popular, so that was a very surprising result for them against North Harbour, especially at home.
108:18
Maybe Hawke's Bay were looking ahead to this week for the big battle of the bay against Bay of Plenty.
108:25
Even so, with the lead that they had, and they were very, very short live, I can tell you, the Magpies, With the lead they had, you wouldn't have expected them to give that up.
108:34
But full credit to North Harbour.
108:35
They were superb.
108:36
They are now $10 North Harbour to win the MPC for this season.
109:18
So plenty of opportunity for NFL fans to get on board as well.
0:32
Would that be correct?
0:35
Yes, sort of.
0:37
There were plenty of punters who decided to back over 57.5 points in that Baltimore test.
0:44
They didn't have to worry too much to be fair.
0:47
There were plenty of points scored.
0:50
In terms of the head-to-head, look, the South Africans weren't without their fans.
0:55
There were quite a few punters who decided that what they saw in the first three tests was enough to get them to, I guess, put their money on the South Africans.
2:38
When we look through the competition now, what are the betting patterns that you are noticing?
99:43
How are the books looking on All Blacks South Africa?
99:48
Yeah, you're right, Scotty.
99:52
The All Blacks have come in a touch.
99:55
I think they were about $2.40 yesterday.
99:57
They're $2.35 today.
99:59
South Africa have drifted from $1.55 out to $1.57. As you say, both teams have been named.
100:05
Dave Rennie going with a very experienced line-up in the fourth and final test against South Africa.
102:59
And look, this is going to be a hugely popular part of the site, I'm sure, and keeping the bookies pretty busy with a close eye on how those markets might shift.
116:29
How's the book looking there?
116:32
Yeah, warm favourites here in Northland.
116:34
I think they were $1.45 yesterday.
116:36
They're now into $1.40.
116:38
It would not surprise me to see them shorten a touch more.
116:41
I think they've already shown so far this season that they are a force to be reckoned with at Seminole Stadium up there in Northland.
116:52
So yes, $1.40 at the moment.
118:12
Seahawks still $1.55, the Pats $2.45. Are we seeing good interest in the NFL, mate?
118:22
wowee okay there you go that's coming out of the blocks on that one for sure what about the rest of the nfl action all kicks off this weekend mate i know it's a hugely popular sport with you guys
118:32
Yeah, it certainly is.
118:34
And certainly those nationally televised games as well.
118:38
What have we got on Monday? The Giants, a big divisional game here.
118:42
Giants up against the Cowboys.
118:44
The Giants, $2.30.
118:45
The Cowboys, $1.64. And then Monday night football on Tuesday, our time.
119:57
Paulie?
44:41
Paul, you got a challenge for us?
44:42
Yeah.
44:43
I thought we'd have a look at, uh, an NPC game from next week, and I'll ask you guys to price it up.
44:52
And then when the bookies actually do price it up, uh, on Monday, uh, we'll, uh, we'll come back next week and just see how close or how far away you were from actually pricing this game correctly.
45:07
Now, we can p- choose any game from next week if you want.
45:11
I thought, um, there's the Shield challenge, Northland up against Waikato.
45:16
That might be a good one to go for, 'cause we know that both teams will definitely have their best teams on the field.
48:31
... doing some interesting things, and giving players game time against a good South African, against a good New Zealand team could be one of the kinds of things he would like to do before the next World Cup You know? Um, so when you guys are looking at these odds and, you know, let's say Rassie's naming his team on a Monday, that probably gives you a bit of a favor, doesn't it, in comparison to [laughs] a Thursday naming, where you guys can make some adjustments maybe relatively early.
104:21
Talk us through all the action over the weekend.
104:25
The bookies are fairly happy, to be fair, and it all revolved around that result in South Africa where the spring box were just a wee bit too good for the All Blacks.
104:37
There was a whole heap.
104:39
of support for the All Blacks to win that game.
104:45
I remember earlier on in the week, we took a $20,000 bet on the All Blacks.
104:50
I think it was at around $2.80 to win the game.
104:53
So lots and lots of support for them to win the game.
105:40
The Warriors fans would have been pretty happy, but gee, that had to go the distance.
3:19
And there's a couple of doozies here from last weekend that really paid off.
3:24
Yeah, exactly.
3:25
We just have to look back at the Warriors up against the Newcastle Knights.
3:29
And this punter put a five-leg same-game multi together, put $5 down and got a return of just over $4,000.
3:39
So you don't have to bet much.
3:41
to win a whole heap when you put these little same game multis together.
3:45
This pundit had Fletcher Hunt to score two or more tries.

8 MINS LATER

11:52
How can we possibly forget that one? Yeah.
106:22
Is the book saying such?
106:26
Yeah, the bookies think so, and the punters think so as well.
106:30
Although the Seagulls could have done us a wee bit of a favour by bringing over a weekend, you know, rest a few players.
106:37
I mean, why are they playing Tommy Turbo? They should put him in Cottonwood.
106:41
He'll pull a hammy here and he won't be able to start next season.
106:45
So, yeah, I don't understand that.
106:47
But anyway, the Waz are $1.30, the Seagulls $3.50, and...
108:37
And given a field like that, given the nature of racing, gosh, it's a value race perhaps for some punters, isn't

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