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Paul Krake

Paul Krake

Founder of macro research firm View from the Peak and climate-focused platform Climate Transformed; author of "Growth Without You: How AI Rewrites Work, Wealth and Investing."

Sep 8, 2026

20:22
[laughs]
20:22
So it's, it's just, uh, it is, uh, it is...
20:25
You are, you know, if you're in the finance world in a lot of, in a lot of spaces, thinking that that may be not be true, that money printing doesn't cause inflation, um, is, is, is heresy in, in, in many circles.
20:38
And whether it's, you know, and what I've seen over time is the demise of econo- not only economic models, but financial models in terms of, of how, how they predict how things are.
20:49
Um, you know, US economy outside of COVID has not had a recession in seventeen years.
20:55
Um, Australia, uh, the last, the last recession outside of COVID that Australia had was the year I came out of college in 1991, right? Australia is a commodity-driven cyclical economy, apparently, and it hasn't had a recession in thirty years.
21:08
The Netherlands hasn't had a recession in that amount of time, right? Why, why if the world is cyclical, why if the world is about boom-bust cycles, do we n- do these, do we have much, much fewer recessions than what we had? And so the book, in a lot of ways, was to, to explore these issues, particularly around the context of, of AI.

7 MINS LATER

28:06
Mm.
24:32
And just, uh, you know, putting kind of my sort of Keynesian economist hat on, you know, if we do see this rise in unemployment and workers aren't earning as much as before, where's the demand going to come for, for all of these companies?
24:45
So you and I as, uh, as writers of this stuff, we have the luxury to look 10 years forward, which, you know, investors don't have, right? So let's split the world up into two, into two five-year blocks.
24:55
This five years is golden age for equity investing, right? Because you've got the growth that...
25:01
You know, AI, AI eventually is a growth killer, and we can talk a little bit that in, in a minute.
25:05
But, you know, but the growth elements, data, data center rollouts, massive increase in electricity production, all that, the, the infrastructure around that, right, which is great for GDP, that's all now.
25:16
That's all.
25:17
And then, you know, and the, you know, all the, the negativity around, you know, CapEx spend and all this sort of stuff, it's getting spent.

7 MINS LATER

32:27
I mean, what's, bigger picture, what do you think the right trade is for this?
4:38
[laughs]
4:39
And I have a sort of a classically trained macro background, right, where top-down was everything, policy was everything.
4:47
Um, you know, h- having started, you know, a lot of my career during the Asian, Asian crisis that, you know, everything was macro, macro, macro.
4:54
And the longer I did this, the longer I started to question whether that was true or not.
5:00
And, um, the idea... and it basically stems back to the London bombing in 2004, I think it was.
5:07
2003, 2004.
5:09
And having lived through 9/11 and seeing what that happened there, you had this m- terrible terrorist attack in London that day, and I looked at the end of the day, I was living in New York at the time, and at around lunchtime, I looked at the close of the FTSE and the FTSE was up on the day.

31 MINS LATER

36:28
Okay.

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