How are you playing Arsenal and Everton?

Done this several times this year, got an Arsenal win to nil and been doing fairly well.

So we'll go Arsenal win to nil plus 125.

Again, some sites will call like win to zero, win via shutout.

You might have to parlay a win and both teams to score no, but you get to the same spot of Arsenal winning to nil.

Four of their seven games this year, they've won to nil in the Premier League.

The defense talked about this ad nauseum, that they're number one in expected goals allowed, they're number one in the shot quality that they give up.

Bournemouth and Man U, middling Man

How are you playing Arsenal and Everton?

Done this several times this year, got an Arsenal win to nil and been doing fairly well.

So we'll go Arsenal win to nil plus 125.

Again, some sites will call like win to zero, win via shutout.

You may have to parlay a win and both teams to score no, but you get to the same spot of Arsenal winning to nil.

Four of their seven games this year, they've won to nil in the Premier League.

The defense, I've talked about this ad nauseum, that they're number one in expected goals allowed.

Bournemouth and Man U, middling Man

How are you playing Arsenal and Everton?

Done this several times this year, got an Arsenal win to nil and been doing fairly well.

So we'll go Arsenal win to nil plus 125.

Again, some sites will call like win to zero, win via shutout.

You may have to parlay a win and both teams to score no, but you get to the same spot of Arsenal winning to nil.

Four of their seven games this year, they've won to nil in the Premier League.

The defense, I've talked about this ad nauseum, that they're number one in expected goals allowed.

Bournemouth and Man U, middling Man

These are all tomorrow, as you say.

This is Hull.

Okay, we're going back to the Hull.

Well, we're just taking the over here in Fulham-Hull City, over two and a half, minus 130.

Uh, well, Hull's tried to play things tight, but they're, you know, they're just not that good, but they've been scraping things out.

Uh, they've been able to score a goal or two, and Fulham doesn't know how to close games out yet.

They've given up four goals in the last 15 minutes of games.

What do you got here, Paul?

These are all tomorrow, as you say.

This is Hull.

Okay, we're going back to the Hull.

Well, we're just taking the over here in Fulham Hull City, over 2.5, minus 130. holes tried to play things tight, but they're, you know, there's just not that good, but they've been scraping things out.

They've been able to score a goal or two and Fulham doesn't know how to close games out yet.

They've given up four goals in the last 15 minutes of games that's tied for most in the league.

So this has all the makings to me of Fulham, you know, of like, two nil two one and giving up a goal late or two goals late that we can hope at least hits the over but i think we're gonna have goals just because fulham again doesn't know how to shut the games down they tend to be open whether they're ahead or behind so i'll take the over two and a half or minus 130 here

You're going to jump on this, Kelly? What do you got here, Paul?

These are all tomorrow, as you say.

This is Hull.

Okay, we're going back to the Hull.

Well, we're just taking the over here in Fulham, Hull City.

Over 2.5, minus 130. the holes tried to play things tight, but they're, you know, there's just not that good, but they've been scraping things out.

They've been able to score a goal or two and Fulham doesn't know how to close games out yet.

They've given up four goals in the last 15 minutes of games that's tied for most in the league.

You're going to jump on this, Kelly? What do you got here, Paul?

So, so what, uh, repeating or if you haven't, if you have already, but could you repeat if you have it or if you haven't yet, what's, what's a way to, is there a way to capitalize on this in any way for us?

I don't think so.

It, I...

What's, the funny part is just if you look at relegation odds now, for example, on DraftKings, City is the fourth favorite to be relegated this season at plus 170.

I don't think, uh, this is just speculation, of course, I don't think anything's going to happen this season to Man City.

Because even if they announce the punishment tomorrow, which it won't be that soon, there's going to be a massive legal process of this whole thing, and so I'd be pretty surprised if anything got executed this season.

I think it's much more likely something gets settled in the off-season and ahead of next year.

Uh, let's get to your three-pack of picks, beginning with an Arsenal play tomorrow.

Can you give us the background for those who are just tuning in for the first time and are like, what are you talking about Man City dealio? Can you give us the background of the whole deal, what it has come to, and what the ramifications might be in your opinion?

Yeah, so Man City is effectively owned by...

the UAE in oil money.

Since they got bought by them about 15, 20 years ago, they've spent a ton of money.

Around 2018 or so, they apparently violated the Premier League financial rules of what you can spend and how you balance that with what you bring in and things like that.

Those charges have been out there for years.

Finally, they were just announced as found guilty on 114 charges of violating the financial rules.

OK, let's get to your three pack of picks,

So, so what, uh, repeating, or if you haven't, if you have already, but could you repeat if you have it or if you haven't yet, what's, what's a way to, is there a way to capitalize on this in any way, for us?

I don't think so.

It, I, what's, the funny part is just if you look at relegation odds now, for example, on DraftKings, City is the fourth favorite to be relegated this season at plus 170.

I don't think, uh, this is just speculation, of course.

I don't think anything's going to happen this season to Man City.

Because even if they announce the punishment tomorrow, which it won't be that soon, there's gonna be a massive legal process of this whole thing.

And so I'd be pretty surprised if anything got executed this season.

Uh, let's get to your three-pack of picks, beginning with an Arsenal play tomorrow.

else should are you

uh keeping an eye on in a similar vein i'm excited to see george campbell uh another center back played montreal for a little while was good with them and now he's captaining west brom a west brom team that's you know top six ish i think in the championship right now um defense hasn't been particularly great so far this season but look you're the captain of a championship team like that's pretty impressive at age 25 or whatever he is Uh, so, you know, I haven't watched West Brom this year.

I haven't seen Campbell play for a couple of years, but I liked what I saw when he was with Montreal.

So I'm eager to see him for exactly the same reasons you said, Sam, like Chris Richards is starting.

And other than that, the U S is still trying to replace Tim Rehm as they've been attempting to do since the last world cup, the 2022 world cup.

So that's, uh, he's at the top of my list.

Um, I'm excited about Audrey Mameti, New York Red Bull, 17 year old midfielder.

enjoy your can clap um last thing i guess we should look at the games like what do you expect from like the actual like you know matchups themselves peru chile mexico and canada so like two two rivalries to sneak in the and that last two it's obviously a long break as well like what do you kind of expect you know i know you mentioned you it's not really sure i feel like they have to mix and match like the youth with the they can't just throw a young squad out there would be kind of stupid in any game but what do you expect from these four games

we have one tomorrow we have one sunday one game a day one match a day what is today

Yeah, let's start this weekend with some goals, shall we? Brentford Chelsea over three and a half plus 125.

This is this afternoon, at least central time.

Chelsea has been an over team all season, 19 goals in four games, three other games have had four plus goals.

The other one had three and that was against Arsenal.

So that's, that's like five against normal team.

Both these teams, Chelsea, Brentford, are top seven in expected goals per game total, over three each.

all right back to the three pack once again today brentford chelsea over three and a half goals at plus 125 tomorrow tottenham takes on aston villa how are you playing that

okay we have one today we have one tomorrow we have one sunday one game a day one match a day what is today

Yeah, let's start this weekend with some goals, shall we? Brentford Chelsea over three and a half plus 125.

This is this afternoon, at least central time.

Chelsea has been an over team all season, 19 goals in four games.

Three other games have had four plus goals.

The other one had three and that was against Arsenal.

So that's that's like five against normal team.

How are you playing that?

What do you got?

got?Yeah.

The weekly, yeah, how do we fade Hull City this week? Uh, this week we're gonna do both teams to score no in Chelsea and Hull City.

So essentially, with Chelsea at home, you're kind of betting Hull's not gonna score a goal with the backdoor of maybe Chelsea doesn't too.

Uh, so I mentioned, Hull hasn't conceded a goal yet, but, and they've only s- and they've scored three goals themselves.

But they've taken the fewest shots in the league, they have the fewest expected goals at 2.3. They're really middle of the pack defensively with the underlying numbers.

So we're at three games where there's obvously, obviously some opponent differences in play, but the numbers are starting to be the numbers at this point.

[laughs]

What do you got?

Yeah.

The weekly, yeah, how do we fade Hull City this week? Uh, this week we're gonna do both teams to score no in Chelsea and Hull City.

So essentially, with Chelsea at home, you're kind of betting Hull's not gonna score a goal, with the backdoor of maybe Chelsea doesn't too.

Uh, so I mentioned, Hull hasn't conceded a goal yet, but, and they've only s- and they've scored three goals themselves, but they've taken the fewest shots in the league.

They have the fewest expected goals at 2.3. They're really middle of the pack defensively with the underlying numbers.

So we're at three games where there's obv- obviously some opponent differences in play, but the numbers are starting to be the numbers at this point.

[laughs]

What do you got?

Yeah.

The weekly, yeah, how do we fade Hull City this week? Uh, this week we're gonna do both teams to score no in Chelsea and Hull City.

So essentially, with Chelsea at home, you're kind of betting Hull's not gonna score a goal, with the backdoor of maybe Chelsea doesn't too.

Uh, so I mentioned, Hull hasn't conceded a goal yet, but, and they've only s- and they've scored three goals themselves.

But they've taken the fewest shots in the league, they have the fewest expected goals at 2.3. They're really middle of the pack defensively with the underlying numbers.

So we're at three games where there's obvously, obviously some opponent differences in play, but the numbers are starting to be the numbers at this point.

[laughs]

What's the pick in 10 minutes?

I'm taking Club Bruges to beat Aston Villa.

I played this at plus 150 this morning.

I've seen it inch up to plus 160 some places.

So check your books.

This is a fate of Aston Villa.

Largely, they talked about them.

split the difference.

What's the pick in 10 minutes?

I'm taking Club Rouge to beat Aston Villa.

I played this at plus 150 this morning.

I've seen it inch up to plus 160 some places.

So check your books.

This is a fate of Aston Villa.

Largely, they talked about them.

split the difference.

What's the pick in 10 minutes?

I'm taking Club Bruges to beat Aston Villa.

I played this at plus 150 this morning.

I've seen it inch up to plus 160 some places.

So check your books.

This is a fate of Aston Villa.

Largely, they talked about them.

the difference.

top half would be pretty wild.

How are you playing Hull City and Aston Villa tomorrow? So because I don't like either one of these teams, and I don't think either one's very good at attacking, I'm just taking the under here, under 2.5, minus 1.10.

These two teams have combined for 27 shots through two games each, which is about half of league average for a team.

So 14 for Hull, 13 for Villa, or maybe it's the other way around.

But the teams are averaging about 27 shots through two games.

Manchester United has 54 shots by themselves overall.

So double both these teams.

Big

preflop.

Even like top four, top half would be pretty wild.

How are you playing Hull City and Aston Villa tomorrow? So because I don't like either one of these teams, and I don't think either one's very good at attacking, I'm just taking the under here, under 2.5, minus 1.10.

These two teams have combined for 27 shots through two games each, which is about half of league average for a team.

So 14 for Hull, 13 for Villa, or maybe it's the other way around.

But the teams are averaging about 27 shots through two games.

Manchester United has 54 shots by themselves, so double both these teams.

And as far as marquee matchups go this early in a season, I guess Arsenal and Chelsea qualifies on Sunday?

What'd you do

here? Yeah, Tottenham and Newcastle are both, you know, two teams that in theory should be vying for the top six-ish spots, but both had a ton of turnover in this offseason.

So Tottenham lost their opener 3-0 to Brentford.

It could have been worse.

That hit the Brentford bet for us, which was nice, but...

But optimistically for Tottenham, they didn't start probably half the guys who will start when they get their A-team in.

They spent over $400 million to bring in new players this offseason, and a lot of those are not integrated with the club yet.

Sunday, Sunderland taking on Fulham, also an over.

Where'd you, what'd you do here?

Yeah, Tottenham, Newcastle are both, you know, two teams that in theory should be vying for the top six-ish spots.

Uh, but both had a ton of turnover in this off-season.

So Tottenham lost their opener 3-nil to Brentford.

It could've been worse.

That hit the Brentford bet for us, which, us, which was nice.

But optimistically for Tottenham, they didn't start probably half the guys who will start when they, you know, get their A team in.

Sunday, Sunderland taking on Fulham, also an over.

What do you got?

Yeah.

No, uh, games have been played obviously, so we're just kind of going on our priors for the preseason.

So let the fading of Hull City begin.

I will take Manchester United, lay the goal and a half.

Uh, plus 110 I got.

Um, again, Hull City just, they, their underlying numbers had them as the second worst team in the championship last year, which is the second division in England.

Also tomorrow, Brentford and Tottenham.

What do you got?

Yeah.

No, uh, games have been played obviously, so we're just kinda going on our priors for the preseason.

So let the fading of Hull City begin.

I will take Manchester United, lay the goal in a half.

Uh, plus 110 I got.

Um, again, Hull City just, they, their underlying numbers had them as the second worst team in the championship last year, which is the second division in England.

Also tomorrow, Brentford and Tottenham.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah, I like Chelsea here.

So, you know, Arsenal, City are kind of a given, and then you've got a tier of three, Chelsea, United, Man United, and Liverpool, that presumably are fighting for third and fourth, and I think Chelsea has the most upside here.

Their most important transfer for the off-season was probably their manager, Xabi Alonso, who was at Leverkusen, uh, Real Madrid briefly before he was fired last season, but that was really more for, you know, not getting along with players and/or front office than on-the-field results.

Uh, and now he's coming in to a Chelsea team that was finished in 10th last year, but their underlying numbers were closer to fifth.

So they're not as bad as they ended up last year, and they have a lot of a, lot of talent that they just couldn't figure out.

You made a bet on each of these.