Patrick Kingsley
British journalist
3
APPEARANCES
1
PODCASTS
012
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Jun 25, 2025
Will the Cease-Fire Hold?
2:53
3:04
3:10
3:24
3:47
21:55
Rachel AbramsHOST
Can you tell us a little bit about how this deal came about? Our colleague Maggie Haberman reported that even some of Trump's closest advisors were caught off guard by his announcement last night.
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
Well, everything happened in fast-forward from roundabout Sunday morning onward.
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
President Trump ordered US planes to bomb three key nuclear sites that Israel had not been able to destroy.
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
Instead of firing lots of missiles at lots of different American airbases and interests across the Middle East, they fired simply at one US military base in Qatar, which was seen as a kind of signal that Iran wanted to respond in a somewhat token way.
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
And then President Trump suddenly announced that he had brokered a deal between Israel and Iran.
18 MINS LATER
Rachel AbramsHOST
I'm just wondering how what happened in Iran over the past 12 days affects the war in Gaza.
Can the Cease-Fire in Gaza Hold?
1:40
1:49
2:13
2:26
2:35
2:51
3:06
Rachel AbramsHOST
But just to start, how in your estimation has this first part of the process actually gone?
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
Several mini crises aside, it has gone roughly to plan, and that plan was to exchange thirty-three hostages held in Gaza by Hamas and its allies for roughly fifteen hundred Palestinian prisoners and detainees held in Israeli jails.
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
Just to recap, at the start of the war, Hamas and its allies raided Israel, captured roughly two hundred and fifty hostages, both dead and alive, brought them back to Gaza.
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
Some of them were exchanged in a previous hostage for prisoner deal in late twenty twenty-three.
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
A handful have been rescued in Israeli military operations, but roughly one hundred were still in captivity in January when this ceasefire was sealed.
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
And the deal allows for roughly a third of them, most of them alive, but some of them dead, to be swapped for Palestinian prisoners who variously had been jailed twenty years ago for their role in terrorist attacks on Israelis.
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
But also hundreds of Palestinians who had been arrested without charge inside Gaza by the Israeli military and held in difficult conditions inside the Israeli prison archipelago.
A Fragile Cease-Fire in Gaza
6:25
6:45
6:55
7:02
7:09
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
It has most obviously weakened Hamas, taken over more of the Gaza Strip, destroyed more of Hamas' infrastructure, killed more Hamas leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, the man who did more than anyone to mastermind the October 7th attack on Israel at the start of the war.
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
Further afield, Israel has substantially weakened Hezbollah, a key ally of Hamas in Lebanon.
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
It has weakened Hamas' main benefactor, Iran, destroying much of its air defenses.
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
And another member of the Iran-led alliance, the Syrian government, has collapsed.
Patrick KingsleyGUEST
So Prime Minister Netanyahu can present more or less the same deal to the Israeli public, and in particular to his far-right allies, as being less of a capitulation as it was once seen by parts of his coalition government because he and Israel are coming from a position of greater military strength.
12 MINS LATER
19:12
But is that important to Israel at all? I mean, the diplomacy, you know, okay, there's the reputation, but it's not fundamentally related to its power in the region and winning, right?