Skip to main content
Patrick Galvin

Patrick Galvin

Sep 29, 2026

2:34
Pat?
2:34
Hey, thanks, Scott.
2:35
Yeah, the midterms have been coming up quite a bit in client conversations.
2:39
And I would say for us, I mean, our view has been the midterms, it's not really a significant market moving event overall.
2:46
I think that higher likelihood of a divided government, which we can see in the polls, we can see in the prediction markets is significant.
2:52
more or less the likely outcome.
2:54
The potential policy implications and read-throughs to equity fundamentals, very limited in scope in those outcomes.
4:13
You want to opine on that for a bit, Pat?
12:22
Yeah.
12:22
About things that he did in the early '70s.
12:24
And in that film, that, the character that's loosely based on Dad, the girlfriend character, who's loosely based on my older sister's mum, is played by Nicole Kidman.
12:36
So there's truth in parts of it, but also he told me for a while that he was one of two only...
12:42
There were the, there were only two registered communists in Australia.
13:25
Yeah
13:26
...
13:26
Dad was opposing conscription.
3:13
Like an allied forces thing.
3:17
but um yeah no it's because like ellie and i uh my partner ellie who i do my various businesses with um yeah we came to the live pod last year and it was great and we're just like this is awesome and we've been talking about wanting to do like a end of year event for us yeah of like because we do markets all the time we sell wares so we're like well we want to do that but we want to have bands involved and then we saw your thing and we're just like why don't we ask if we can just latch onto theirs and their thing involved.
3:44
And I think it makes it a good kind of event that is varied.
3:49
So it's like there's something for kind of everyone.
3:51
You can come to the market, you can come to the pod, you can come to the band, you can do all three, kind of chop and change.
3:55
And it just makes it more interesting because like the events that we've done, like we do markets constantly and we like travel around and we do all that kind of stuff.
4:03
And the ones that we've done that are the most interesting are ones that actually have some else to it yeah it's like and it's like you know everyone in the world is well not everyone in the world everyone in australia is trying to replicate dark mofo what works about dark mofo is that it's for it's a variety yeah yeah for sure and so obviously this isn't that it's not dark mofo um it's brunswick dark yeah it's It's dork mofo.

11 MINS LATER

15:11
So...
3:24
So, Pat, as we go through this, let's start adding a little bit of perspective here on this growth cluster, how it's evolved and how you see it and we see it shaking through in terms of the index behavior.
3:37
Yeah, sure thing.
3:38
Something we've covered at length in our work is really, as you mentioned, the changing index composition through time.
3:43
I think the cluster has given you a really great look at this.
3:46
as you mentioned 30 years ago that growth cluster cohort was about 17 of the index market cap now it's like 55 so we've seen that growth weight in the index triple over 30 years and nearly double in just the last 10 years and with that comes a number of implications I would say first, it's reduced cyclicality of the index.
4:05
Those growth themes, they carry a little bit less macro sensitivity when we're either looking at macro sensitivity of returns or earnings growth.
4:12
And really this 20 percentage point decline in the cyclical weight that's moved over to growth.
6:28
So, Pat, as we go down this path, how do we think about navigating that in terms of putting some construct around this? And what else does it lead to in terms of investment implications for us?

We value your privacy

We use cookies to understand how you use our platform and to improve your experience. Click “Accept All” to consent, or “Decline non-essential” to opt out of non-essential cookies. Read our Privacy Policy.