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Nicole Thomas

Nicole Thomas is Vice President of Information Services at McKeany-Flavell Company, Inc., the firm's senior commodity analyst covering sugar, corn, and edible oil markets and co-host of the Hot Commodity Podcast.

Sep 18, 2026

2:50
I will turn it over to you.
2:52
so uh yeah you know it's um been an interesting uh set of vegetable oil markets for sure uh but thought we we'd uh kind of focus in on the the two big factors um one more typical and one less typical uh but in in the case of the fundamentals uh looking at the production side of things are are more normal uh challenging to predict factor of weather And that is arguably the strongest influence to vegetable oil markets right now across the board, various regions.
3:32
We're certainly seeing the dry down and now the wildfire dilemma within Indonesia.
3:41
that ultimately is likely to be pretty impactful for palm and PKO production longer term.
3:49
In fact, GAPKI, that's Indonesia's organization, really focused on tropical oil production and consumption, even this week mentioned that they're expecting a double-digit decline to production showing up at some point probably early next year, if not before.
4:09
So that is certainly supportive for both Palm and Palm Kernel.
4:15
But it also provides longer term support for coconut oil.

14 MINS LATER

18:17
Another evolving story.
5:26
But
5:27
I guess what I can say is there is definitely a strong correlation between soybean oil futures and crude oil futures.
5:37
And maybe a very general rule of thumb, if we're looking at crude oil upwards of in the 100 to $110 barrel range, you're probably looking at being oil in the high 70s, maybe even the low 80s.
5:54
We get over 110 more comfortably in the 80s per pound.
6:00
I hate to say it or even think about it, but if we're 120 or above, the possibility remains that we could see those bean oil futures surpass historical highs and get into the high 90s.
6:17
I can't even rule out a dollar a pound at this point again.
6:20
All depends on what happens with that crude oil piece of it.
9:09
But what could be a scenario that maybe sees this market ease, timing, when? Could we see 60 or maybe something with a five in front of it? What would it take to get there, of course, and maybe when could that be possible?
5:31
Wow.
5:32
I know.
5:32
Tell me about it.
5:33
So that was March 2nd.
5:35
Okay.
5:36
Couple of weeks goes by completely on board with the idea of let's just wait and see.
5:43
'Cause if this is over pretty quickly, these markets will retreat, so will those prices.
speaker_2UNKNOWN
9:57
No

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