What are you watching for here? How close a race do you anticipate it will be?

going to be a very close race, Vashi.

You know, we do seat projections and we do modeling on every single federal riding across the country.

And right now in the latest NANOS polling, that particular riding in Brantford is a coin toss.

And you know, that doesn't even factor the existence or likely existence of an independent brackets, conservative candidates.

So this is going to be a tough right now.

It's a very tough, tough race for the Conservatives in that riding.

Do independents, can they factor in enough to make that much of a difference?

I mean, what are you seeing to make up that 50 to 47 number that is either good for one of the candidates or a concern for one of the candidates?

Well, you know, the thing is, the city's divided.

I think that's really the top takeaway.

You know, like Chow does well.

She has a comfortable lead in Toronto, East York.

And when we get to North York, you know, it's advantaged Bradford by about 13 points.

The race in Scarborough has tightened up.

Based on what you see in the numbers, what's your advice to the incumbent mayor?

When I thought that Mark Carney might be on the tail end of this honeymoon, is there any numbers and not here, but are there any numbers that should suggest that might be true? There was a while that he was even leading in Alberta and it doesn't look like that's true any longer.

Well, you know, the thing is, is for Mark Carney, what he's got to worry about is the state of the economy, you know, and, uh, we track consumer confidence and it's quite flat, uh, People are worried about their personal finances.

They think the economy is going to get weaker in the next six months.

And for any prime minister, that's usually bad news.

The big question for Mark Carney is how much runway will he have for the current honeymoon that he's on.

I think the fall is going to be much more difficult for Mark Carney than it has been because he's going to not be in the driver's seat.

He's going to have to react to whatever happens in the referendum in Alberta.

This is where Carney is.

Yes.

Because, right? And then you'd have that, is it the Winston Churchill quote to say that, you know, when you're, if when you're young, if you don't turn into a conservative, you're whatever.

Anyways, it's kind of a derogatory comment about liberals.

But anyways, um, and that has turned itself on its head, where now- Older voters are voting Liberal, and younger voters are more likely to vote, uh, Conservative.

I think one of the reasons why we're seeing that dynamic, uh, where younger voters are cynical of trade, feel their jobs are under threat, and, and that, you know, for, uh, Mark Carney...

And, you know, the, the thing is, is that no political leader is perfect, if we're talking about the Conservative leader or the Liberal leader.

But, you know, Mark Carney, um, his...

... military going forward?

Yes.

Because, right? And then you'd have that...

Is it the Winston Churchill quote to say that, you know, when you're, if, when you're young, if you don't turn into a conservative, you're whatever.

Anyways, it's kind of a derogatory comment about liberals.

But anyways, um, and that has turned itself on its head, where now- Older voters are voting liberal and younger voters are more likely to vote, uh, conservative.

I think one of the reasons why we're seeing that dynamic, uh, where younger voters are cynical of trade, feel their jobs are under threat and, and that, you know, for, uh, Mark Carney, and, you know, the, the thing is, is that no political leader is perfect if we're talking about the conservative leader or the liberal leader.

But, you know, Mark Carney, um, his...

... military going forward?

Things are hopping on so many levels, but boards have to evaluate their long-term risks and opportunities within this environment, and how should they be thinking about it in the context of national resilience and building economic growth?

They should be looking at it in terms of an opportunity, that all this disruption and change that's happening...

I think we are at a particular moment in time where we're at pivot point in the Canadian economy and Canada's future, and the reason why we have that pivot point is because of the, what I'll call it, the, the discussions related to the Canada-US relationship and how that has had Canadians, leaders, business leaders, CEOs, board members, average Canadians, and politicians thinking about, how do we do things? And you know, in the past I think part of the problem is, is that we did things just because we did it the same way all the time, and what we're seeing at least is a government and Prime Minister Carney looking to not revolutionize the Canadian economy, but to, I'll call it recalibrate for resilience.

And I think board members have to look at this as an opportunity, and I do not see this as a partisan initiative 'cause the fact of the matter is, whether you talk to Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre, they agree on a number of things.

They agree that the relationship with the United States is the most important relationship.

They agree that the world has changed.

They might have different specific strategies.

How do we build this muscle of leadership, and is that a little bit of a pushback on back to basics, or is that perhaps even quarter back to basics?

If you were to identify an inflection point, uh, for that change to take place, what was it?

I think, Vashi, there are a series of inflection points, and it has to do with, I'll call it the fever pace that Mark Carney has been traveling the world trying to build- ... economic partnerships, and you know, the, the, the preferred prime minister numbers basically tell the story about what's been happening, right? You know, about 49% of Canadians would prefer Mark Carney as prime minister, 24% would prefer Pierre Poilievre.

You know, Mark Carney's got a 25-point advantage.

This is all about Mark Carney, and you know, Canadians judge politicians by what they talk about, and also by what they do and what they're focused on.

And I think for Mark Carney, it's hard not to recognize the fact that he is focused on building economic partnerships and trying to make the Canadian economy resilient.

You know what? I think Canadians would probably more l- are, are probably more interested in that than anything else, because the top issue of concern that people are worried about is jobs and the economy, and we look like there's a prime minister at least where that's his priority.

Now, on delivering an impact, that's a completely different story, but for Mark Carney, he's not competing against perfection, 'cause if he was competing against perfection, the Conservatives would have a case.

Is it a problem with the message or the messenger?

Would you dismiss the result like that or why not?

I think because every party, every strategist needs to be accountable.

when voters cast their ballots.

Like, let's face it, for the Liberals, they should be accountable.

In their case, they won all three, so they're doing okay.

For the NDP, they did a little better, so that's their level of accountability.

For the Bloc, they lost a riding that they have held historically for a very long time, so that was kind of pretty bittersweet.

What is the primary difference in that?

Have you ever seen anything like that in that period of time? No,

it's kind of like trading places, Vashi.

Think of it this way.

If we look at December 2024, if the election was then, we'd be saying Prime Minister Pierre Poiliev.

He would have won a sweeping majority government.

The Conservatives would be in power.

But fast forward 15, 16 months, and what we have is now the Carney Liberals at around 47, 48%, and the Conservatives in the low 30s.

What is the thing or the attribute in the person that changed that trajectory?

What is behind it?

I think it's a combination of factors.

And the thing is, as you mentioned, it's been fairly a tight race until about three or four weeks ago.

It was within the margin of error.

But what we've seen is a combination of factors that have not helped Pierre Poiliev and the Conservatives.

First of all...

The third defection could not be good news for Pierre Poiliev because that captures the attention of Canadians and they're wondering what's going on with the Conservative caucus and what's going on with Pierre Poiliev's leadership, especially after he just came off a whopping win and a resounding kind of vote when it came to his party.

When you consider all of this, how do you think that this plays into any kind of rumors about a potential election coming?