Now, it denies it, Beijing denies it, but that would be of concern, would it not?

Absolutely.

And I think this is the, um, the main watch point.

And China already had a defense trade relationship with Iran, a close economic partner in the region.

Uh, we know there's been, uh, exports and imports of arms, uh, going both ways in the previous years and decades.

So what's less clear is whether- These, these reports refer to things that were already happening before the war started or do they represent a, an escalation in the sense of being a active effort to help Iran fight this war better? That's where I'm a little bit more skeptical because that would prolong the fighting and that would, you know, have a, uh, an impact on, uh, China's economy and extend this, uh, crunch on global energy markets.

It's in a really powerful position, isn't it, economically?

In the longer term, yes.

So what do you make of that?

I think it's a huge deal, right? This is the most senior purge in the military for several decades.

And it shows, I think, in my view, how serious she is about remaking the PLA, making it more loyal, less corrupt, a stronger fighting force.

And there's just been this... burgeoning purge over the last few years.

You're starting with the Rocket Force and Li Shengfu in mid-2023, and then kind of ripping through both the Rocket Force and the procurement bureaucracy, which Zhang Youxiao led for Xi's first term.

So I think you can make a reasonable case that there is a nexus with this big anti-corruption investigation.

It's taken out a lot of people tied to these particular bureaucracies.

So what can we take away from the two sessions, if anything, about Xi's plans for the next party Congress, for his fourth term, for his vision of his own role going forward?

He could have just quietly got rid of him, couldn't he? He is 75 years old, so he's wanting to make a big deal of this.

Exactly.

It is a big deal because Zhang Youxia is not only the most senior general, he's someone who has some deep connections to Xi himself.

So their fathers were comrades in arms during the revolution.

They were from the same place, fought in some of the same battles, and both...

Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping grew up in the elite circles of revolutionary Beijing in the 50s and the 60s.

And it's clear quite recently that Xi thought that he could trust and depend on Zhang Youxia because he did get a special exemption from the normal retirement norms around age limits.

OK, and then, once that's happened, what, we'll have a better idea of his strategy, of his plan for Taiwan? Because we know his ambition, right? We know he does want to invade Taiwan.

What do you judge happened? Was it an unusually quick purge or not?

The best answer to this question is that we don't really know.

the actual reasons, the actual feelings that Xi has towards his top generals, his top lieutenants in the party, are basically a mystery to us, which feeds a lot of misinformation and disinformation online, There's a ton of colorful rumors out there about a coup in Beijing, or maybe Zhang Youxia was plotting with Xi Jinping's wife to do something.

We just don't know.

I mean, I think those more fanciful stories are almost certainly false.

But it does seem that Xi has... very high expectations of his lieutenants.

He's been using anti-corruption since he came to power in 2012 as first a way to get rid of his obvious political rivals and different factions who could have contested his leadership.

Can you tell us a bit more about how these two men knew each other, what the depth and strength of the relationship has been? Because for me, that's what makes this moment even more extraordinary.