all right it is game time to bring in our good buddy mike calabrese but without further ado let's bring him on in mike all right michael calabrese coming in here uh this is like year year eight of us doing shows uh and i feel like an idiot because well one i'm awake and then two because we had this conversation off air and i just i i just we've done every show the last however long for years and years about gambling but you are um in a little bit different field now and you've been in washington dc as like a chief lobbyist for some of the stuff behind the scenes with this protect college sports act why don't we start there and then then we'll talk some game because i think it's some interesting stuff obviously it's going to impact everyone but what's what is the past four was it four weeks have been like

So just to back up, this is a bit of legalese, but it's important.

Not lobbyist, educator.

Been educating senators, educating congressmen and women.

The last four weeks have been drama filled, to put it lightly.

I mean, coming from the world of college football, everything changes.

You know, the drop of a hat and with the transfer portal and all of that madness.

What's your general feeling about what, what the best of place on that in terms of didn't even have to be a thing to go over under, but just from a strategy standpoint, is it, is there anything you would, you would point out with that?

What do you make of the Longhorns, and is this a team you're backing to win the SEC?

Oh, I love this team, and by the way, no UGA on the schedule 'cause Kirby has owned Sark in three straight meetings, so that was a nice plus right off the bat.

Then you look at the quarterback situation.

I understand that Arch was under the microscope.

He did not look good early in the season last year.

He was out of his element in that opener against Ohio State.

All the sim pressures, all, you know, the hybrid coverages.

Full season CJ Carr, the floor is yours on the Irish

Mike, I'm curious as a sports bettor, how does your betting shift once you get into the post-season? Does it ramp up? Does it slow down? Is it more futures-focused? How do you go about changing things once you get, we get this wave of casual money? Th- does that create value? Do you, do you sense that that dries up? What, what's the mentality as you go into the tournament, and has it changed at all?

Well, you go from, at least in my experience, you go from Tuesday night's betting Summit League basketball where, you know, there's probably tens of people who are betting on St. Thomas against South Dakota State to the, as you mentioned, these games that have incredible volume.

The markets get fine-tuned in that regard.

But the other element that comes into play is that all these sports books are competing against each other for eyeballs for the bets.

So they start to open up all these ex- exotic markets, and you get opportunities to hit numbers that just aren't offered the rest of the year at most of the mainstream books.

And generally speaking, in terms of my diet as a gambler, I start to lean into a few more player props, a few more of those exotics.

I have some here on the Final Four as well that I'll get into.

But how much does coaching matter at this point in the season? Is that something that you're kind of f- factoring into all of this? And if so, who do you have your eye on for this Final Four coming up?

Where should they start as they begin to assess the bracket?

I think where they should start is there's the human nature of you see the one seeds just advance into the Final Four, the recency bias of last year, all the one seeds won their region.

At least do the deep dive to figure out what's the weakness for those four teams.

Duke has their injuries.

Arizona does not shoot the three-point shot, so if they get into a 10 or 15-point hole, God forbid, before, you know, the second weekend, can they shoot their way back into a game? Michigan, in terms of their depth, and Cadeau has not played very well and has, you know, basically proven if you leave him open, he's not knocking down shots.

And then Florida flaming out in the SEC tournament in s- in such a public way, getting beat like a drum by Vandy.

Those are legitimate questions, and at least I think when you start that way, it relieves a little bit of that pressure p- perhaps as a casual to say, "Well, I have to put the one seed at least to the Elite Eight, if not the Final Four." No, you don't.

And yes, statistics will point towards certain match-ups, but do you pay attention to those, or is it just this is what I've seen, this is what you've shown me, so this is how I'm going to choose my bracket?

How do you see this impacting either Kansas or Peterson himself in the upcoming NBA draft?

You know, maybe it's because I'm a tortured Sixers fan, but the NBA draft community seems to just be breezing by, you know, these cramps and the fact that he's opting out when he has the cold or flu, whatever it was.

You know, calling out of games.

Like, he made a three last night, turns around immediately, basically slaps Bill Self like, "Get me out of this game." You know, when you've lived through the Embiid injuries, Ben Simmons' disinterest in playing, the weird scenarios like Markelle Fultz just losing all confidence, like, I don't want to brush it under the rug, but it seems like NBA draftniks are like, "He's e- either number one or number two.

Just, like, don't overthink this.

He'll be fine because he's not dealing with a serious injury or some kind of chronic injury," although the cramps thing is strange.

Um, I think Kansas is likely to, you know, be on the wrong side of this narrative at some point later in the year.

[laughs]