perhaps?

I don't think it's a black swan.

I think it's predictable.

I think that the end of a decade when you're overvalued in terms of record high PEs overall on the S&P, you've got A lot of, you know, trillion dollar IPOs coming out now that are sort of betting on the come at least as revenue, but there's not profits yet.

I mean, the dot coms didn't even have revenue.

But, you know, the market is ruled by fear and greed.

And right now it's in full on greed mode and will probably be that for the next couple of years.

How are you watching the altcoin market and how are you watching the attention move from some of the products I just mentioned back and forth to altcoins?

perhaps?

I don't think it's a black swan.

I think it's predictable.

I think that the end of a decade when you're overvalued in terms of record high PEs overall on the S&P, you've got A lot of, you know, trillion dollar IPOs coming out now that are sort of betting on the come at least as revenue, but there's not profits yet.

I mean, the dot coms didn't even have revenue.

But, you know, the market is ruled by fear and greed.

And right now it's in full on greed mode and will probably be that for the next couple of years.

How are you watching the altcoin market and how are you watching the attention move from some of the products I just mentioned back and forth to altcoins?

so i thought this would be a good time to to check in with you about that and the framework that's in there but you know people use this word super cycle it means different things to different people let's start with that what is a bitcoin super cycle what does that mean explain me that idea

so i use the definition that the cme gives for super cycle i mean the frame super cycle and sort of entire cycle theories goes back you know not quite 100 years but close to it uh elliott wave and uh you know some of the you know theories of like the great, the grand super cycle of like 400 years where societies change.

And, uh, Ray Dahlia now is talking a lot about that.

Um, and, uh, within that, then you have different cycles going all the way down to cycles that can be you know, measured in minutes or hours.

You know, obviously, the fundamental thing that has moved Bitcoin price so far, and I believe is still going to continue for at least 20 years, is the halving cycle.

They call it a four-year cycle.

It's actually been 47 months, all but one of the cycles.

How do you think about that idea? Where does that fit into how you interpret these things?

Okay.

Um, Simon & Schuster distributes it, and, uh, it, uh, came out in late '24.

And then late, and then in late '25 I started a, a, the fund, the Bitcoin Supercycle fund.

Traditional, you know, hedge fund, um, based on that thesis.

And so, uh, um, which is effectively...

Satoshi said in, in the white paper, in subsequent w- writings that, uh, as long as the amount of new money coming into Bitcoin every four years, um, exceeds the amount of new coins mined, the price has to go up.

It's math.

Yeah

w-What is Bitcoin?

Sure.

So it's two things.

I mean, first of all, it's a giant pie, right? And, um, yes, there, there's a lot of stock market investors now shifting from other parts of the stock market to the Mag Seven, to AI.

There's a big part of, uh, institutional, you know, Sand Hill, you know, Road VCs putting 80-something percent of their, of their, of their budgets into, uh, into AI.

But these are within defined asset classes, right? And so it's not like gold investors are dumping gold and putting everything into AI, and the same thing with crypto, same thing with Bitcoin.

You probably have on the fringe some, you know, disgruntled or just sort of people who've always been diversified going, say, "Hey, maybe this year I'm only gonna put, you know, 20% into Bitcoin.

If we assume that this trend continues, does it not make sense that, mathematically speaking, the, the, the growth from trough to peak should approach zero at some point?