
Michael Ryan
Freight Commodity Owner at Sparta Commodities, a tanker market analyst and former Trafigura wet freight trader.
7
APPEARANCES
1
PODCASTS
012
DEC 30
JAN 6
JAN 13
JAN 20
JAN 27
FEB 3
FEB 10
FEB 17
FEB 24
MAR 3
MAR 10
MAR 17
MAR 24
MAR 31
APR 7
APR 14
APR 21
APR 28
MAY 5
MAY 12
MAY 19
MAY 26
JUN 2
JUN 9
JUN 16
JUN 23
JUN 30
JUL 7
JUL 14
JUL 21
JUL 28
AUG 4
AUG 11
AUG 18
AUG 25
SEP 1
SEP 8
SEP 15
SEP 22
SEP 29
OCT 6
OCT 13
OCT 20
OCT 27
NOV 3
NOV 10
NOV 17
NOV 24
DEC 1
DEC 8
DEC 15
DEC 22
DEC 29
JAN 5
JAN 12
JAN 19
JAN 26
FEB 2
FEB 9
FEB 16
FEB 23
MAR 2
MAR 9
MAR 16
MAR 23
MAR 30
APR 6
APR 13
APR 20
APR 27
MAY 4
MAY 11
MAY 18
MAY 25
JUN 1
JUN 8
JUN 15
JUN 22
JUN 29
JUL 6
JUL 13
JUL 20
JUL 27
AUG 3
AUG 10
AUG 17
AUG 24
AUG 31
SEP 7
SEP 14
SEP 21
SEP 28
OCT 5
OCT 12
OCT 19
OCT 26
Oct 22, 2026
Episode 116: Iran hits more tankers but crude still flows. China and freight swing refining margins
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Michael RyanGUEST
Yeah, I was just going to say, it's a great quote, typical from the current US administration, using big words like from the bad guy fleet to the good guy fleet.

Michael RyanGUEST
And this dark fleet tanker sanction news over the last two weeks has been a little bit interesting because...

Michael RyanGUEST
When they came out and said that they were thinking about removing some sanctions on some tankers, you could see TD3C November prices in the second half of last week drop about 200 world scale points.

Michael RyanGUEST
They've softened, call it another 80 world scale points now for November paper.

Michael RyanGUEST
And There's really no way that even if these sanctions were removed today for a material number of tankers, it wouldn't impact November business and shouldn't impact November paper.
16 MINS LATER
Hormuz exports are back near pre-war levels. The military escalations haven't stopped.
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3:03

Michael RyanGUEST
I-I've just seen a real uptick in the pace of VLCC fixtures out of the AG region.

Michael RyanGUEST
And I say region just because that includes the actual Arab Gulf, but also the Omani Gulf and the Red Sea.

Michael RyanGUEST
And just for example, so far, over Monday and Tuesday, I've seen at least, so these are the reported fixtures, I've seen at least fourteen VLCCs getting fixed, almost all of them heading to the east, and I believe it was ten of them are loading out of Fujairah.
17 MINS LATER
Episode 112: A diesel ban looms. HOGO reacts. Freight markets in limbo.
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6:28
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6:52
7:02

Michael RyanGUEST
The workarounds are indeed impressive, and, and speaking of the shuttle trade, this is one of the reasons- Why VLCC freight rates have TCEs of over one million a day.

Michael RyanGUEST
And when you have ships that are just shuttling back and forth between the Strait of Hormuz and the Oman Gulf, one, that takes up ships, takes up time, but then also when you're having to SDS, that's not just a two or three-hour ordeal, I mean, it's gonna take all day.

Michael RyanGUEST
So there's massive inefficiencies, and again, that's part of the reason, of several other reasons why VLCC rates are so high now.

Michael RyanGUEST
And I also just wanted to mention again, if we, we go back to the UN General Assembly, the, the Iran committee and Steve Witkoff held their first public meeting.

Michael RyanGUEST
Trump was quoted to say that it was very productive, and this quote, of course, took the crude market three or $4 off immediately.
11 MINS LATER
18:18
Any other thoughts on the, on the freight market based on the, this discussion?
Episode 112: A diesel ban looms. HOGO reacts. Freight markets in limbo.
6:13
6:28
6:44
6:52
7:02

Michael RyanGUEST
The workarounds are indeed impressive and, and speaking of the shuttle trade, this is one of the reasons- Why VLCC freight rates have TCEs of over one million a day.

Michael RyanGUEST
And when you have ships that are just shuttling back and forth between the Strait of Hormuz and the Oman Gulf, one, that takes up ships, takes up time, but then also when you're having to SDS, that's not just a two or three-hour ordeal, I mean, it's gonna take all day.

Michael RyanGUEST
So there's massive inefficiencies, and again, that's part of the reason of several other reasons why VLCC rates are so high now.

Michael RyanGUEST
And I also just wanted to mention again, if we, we go back to the UN General Assembly, the, the Iran committee and Steve Witkoff held their first public meeting.

Michael RyanGUEST
Trump was quoted to say that it was very productive, and this quote, of course, took the, the crude market three or $4 off immediately.
11 MINS LATER
18:18
Any other thoughts on the, on the freight market based on the, this discussion?
Episode 109: Kirishi's hit, Hormuz is live again: diesel has nowhere left to hide
11:01
11:12

Michael RyanGUEST
And then out of China, Meilao, I think it's the LR2 ARB, which makes a little bit more sense, but super rare to see an MR.

Michael RyanGUEST
And then I wanted just to go back to the very beginning of what you were saying about the geopolitical updates and...
14 MINS LATER
Episode 107: Diesel cracks blow past 100$. Dirty freight surging.
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Then we can come back to Russia because obviously it has a bigger impact on middle distillates and then we can move on to the middle distillate section.

Michael RyanGUEST
It's a good segue because so TD6 is CPC to MED on a Suezmax and those rates have skyrocketed recently.

Michael RyanGUEST
The risk premium now is huge to load any crude in the CPC area and owners are ballasting their Suezmaxes into the MED for that reason.

Michael RyanGUEST
And because there's more demand now out of the Red Sea to carry your barrels north through the Suez Canal.

Michael RyanGUEST
And what that's done over the last couple of weeks is it's cut the tonnage counts out of the U.S. Gulf Coast and out of WAF for Suez Maxis.

Michael RyanGUEST
And people are now putting a lot more barrels on Suez Maxis instead of the AFRAs.
10 MINS LATER
Episode 97: Hormuz transits accelerate but risk is high.
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16:22

Neil CrosbyHOST
What about the rest of the clean market? So do you want to just give us the lowdown on what you see globally?

Michael RyanGUEST
Yeah, so the US Gulf Coast has been quite volatile in regards to MR clean rates.

Michael RyanGUEST
Part of this move higher in TC14 has been somewhat artificial because your earnings out of Northwest Europe are so deep in the gutter that no owner wants their ship to open in Northwest Europe because...

Michael RyanGUEST
Lately, they've been earning less than 10K a day, where out of the U.S. Gulf Coast, you could be earning on a longer haul voyage, 45, 50K a day or caribs type voyage, 70K a day.

