of 0.2 to 0.3 percent of the transaction values they've said we're big a lot of business from us then you should be charging a much lower interchange fee which suggests they're taking the rest of us for a bit of a ride surely the tax office would have been big enough to have negotiated something like that instead they're now trying to do it retrospectively

Yeah.

So what appears to have happened is, of course, the government announced on Friday that it will absorb the surcharge from the tax office.

We're absorbing it through the tax.

That's exactly right.

Exactly right.

So the tax office had said that it would no longer accept credit card payments.

It's a long way down the track, but that's one to watch, definitely.

Michael, what are the key takeaways from each of these policies?

I think that if we look at the key takeaways, there's one central theme, and that is that they all want to cut the migration rate.

They think it's a bit too high.

When you look at One Nation, it was first off the blocks a few weeks ago.

It's talking about a massive cut to the migration rate to the point that One Nation thinks that its policy could actually lead to a recession because it wants to go for a hard reset of no more than about 130,000 people.

That's what they think is sustainable.

Labor was next.

Do you think that they were doing that deliberately to see what Labor and One Nation put on the table, gauge the reaction from business groups and those sorts of things and try and land in sort of this, the quote unquote perfect policy?

... uh, sort of this, the quote unquote "perfect policy"?

Yeah, I think that there is some, uh, truth to that.

No doubt that, um, the Coalition wanted to see what Labor had to offer, what One Nation had to offer, and where they could fit around that.

And I think that they've done a pretty good job in trying to find that middle ground.

So there's no doubt the Coalition is saying its immigration policy will be pretty tough in the first two years.

So if they're elected in 2028, they're looking at some pretty deep cuts to immigration in, uh, their first two years of government and as I say, then gradually build it up.

But what they're also saying is they'll target temporary visas, which a lot of that cohort is bridging visas and student visas, but where they're gonna focus on is skilled visas.

so far this year?

... sort of this, the, quote-unquote, "perfect policy"?

Yeah, I think that there is some, uh, truth to that.

No doubt that, um, the Coalition wanted to see what Labor had to offer, what One Nation had to offer, and where they could fit around that, and I think that they've done a pretty good job in trying to find that middle ground.

So there's no doubt the Coalition is saying its immigration policy will be pretty tough in the first two years.

So if they're elected in 2028, they're looking at some pretty deep cuts to immigration in, uh, their first two years of government and as I say, then gradually build it up.

But what they're also saying is they'll target temporary visas, which a lot of that cohort is bridging visas and student visas, but where they're gonna focus on is skilled visas.

They want people with high skills to come into the country, which is why they're saying that their policy would be budget neutral.

so far this year?

Michael, what are the key takeaways from each of these policies?

I think that if, uh, we look at the key takeaways, there's one central theme, and that is that they all wanna cut the migration rate.

They think it's a bit too high.

When you look at One Nation, it was first off the blocks a few weeks ago.

It's talking about a massive cut to the migration rate, to the point that One Nation thinks that its policy could actually lead to a recession because, uh, it is...

It, it wants to go for a hard reset of no more than about 130,000, uh, people.

That's what they think is sustainable.

... uh, sort of this, the, quote-unquote, "perfect policy"?

Michael, what are the key takeaways from each of these policies?

I think that if we look at the key takeaways, there's one central theme, and that is that they all want to cut the migration rate.

They think it's a bit too high.

When you look at One Nation, it was first off the blocks a few weeks ago.

It's talking about a massive cut to the migration rate to the point that One Nation thinks that its policy could actually lead to a recession because it wants to go for a hard reset of no more than about 130,000 people.

That's what they think is sustainable.

Labor was next.

Do you think that they were doing that deliberately to see what Labor and One Nation put on the table, gauge the reaction from business groups and those sorts of things and try and land in sort of this, the quote unquote perfect policy?

... uh, sort of this, the, quote-unquote, "perfect policy"?

Yeah, I think that there is some, uh, truth to that.

No doubt that, um, the Coalition wanted to see what Labor had to offer, what One Nation had to offer, and where they could fit around that.

And I think that they've done a pretty good job in trying to find that middle ground.

So there's no doubt The Coalition is saying its immigration policy will be pretty tough in the first two years.

So if they're elected in 2028, they're looking at some pretty deep cuts to immigration in, uh, their first two years of government and, as I say, then gradually build it up.

But what they're also saying is they'll target temporary visas, which a lot of that cohort is bridging visas and student visas.

so far this year?

... uh, sort of this, the, quote-unquote, "perfect policy"?

Yeah, I think that there is some, uh, truth to that, no doubt, that, um, the Coalition wanted to see what Labor had to offer, what One Nation had to offer, and where they could fit around that.

And I think that they've done a pretty good job in trying to find that middle ground.

So there's no doubt the Coalition is saying its immigration policy will be pretty tough in the first two years.

So if they're elected in 2028, they're looking at some pretty deep cuts to immigration in, uh, their first two years of government and, as I say, then gradually build it up.

But what they're also saying is they'll target temporary visas, which a lot of that cohort is bridging visas and student visas, but where they're gonna focus on is skilled visas.

They want people with high skills to come into the country, which is why they're saying that their policy would be budget neutral.

so far this year?

Michael, what are the key takeaways from each of these policies?

I think that if we look at the key takeaways, there's one central theme, and that is that they all want to cut the migration rate.

They think it's a bit too high.

When you look at One Nation, it was first off the blocks a few weeks ago.

It's talking about a massive cut to the migration rate to the point that One Nation thinks that its policy could actually lead to a recession because it wants to go for a hard reset of no more than about 130,000 people.

That's what they think is sustainable.

Labor was next.

Do you think that they were doing that deliberately to see what Labor and One Nation put on the table, gauge the reaction from business groups and those sorts of things and try and land in sort of this, the quote unquote perfect policy?

... uh, sort of this, the, quote-unquote, "perfect policy"?

Yeah, I think that there is some, uh, truth to that.

No doubt that, um, the Coalition wanted to see what Labor had to offer, what One Nation had to offer, and where they could fit around that.

And I think that they've done a pretty good job in trying to find that middle ground.

So there's no doubt the Coalition is saying its immigration policy will be pretty tough in the first two years.

So if they're elected in 2028, they're looking at some pretty deep cuts to immigration in, uh, their first two years of government and, as I say, then gradually build it up.

But what they're also saying is they'll target temporary visas, which a lot of that cohort is bridging visas and student visas.

And how important is that for Angus Taylor? Is this essentially his last chance to win back the voters who have turned to One Nation so far this year?

Do you feel as though the government is spending too much money? And last night we touched on the fact that I felt as though Jim Chalmers spent all this money to be a treasurer that did avoid a recession.

Look, the general feeling in Canberra is that the government is spending too much money.

There's no doubt about that.

Now, the Treasurer would argue that in the May budget they're trying to reform this.

They're saying that they have been looking at waste and cutting red tape and those sorts of things, and that's been saving billions of dollars.

But as most economists, I think, would tell you, and you would be hearing this yourself, Scott, is that it's all at the edges.

So any of the cuts that the government has made in the budget, it's pretty much at the edges.

Do you think there's an awareness in Canberra that the current government, in terms, they're not considering the future burden of future generations of Australians because children and grandchildren are going to be picking up this tax liability tab?

In fact, a lot less detail of- in theirs than there is in the One Nation one.

one.Yeah, look, and, uh, both the opposition and the government really don't have their immigration policies sorted out.

As we know, what was it? About a month, maybe six weeks ago, Tony Burke, who's the immigration minister and also the home affairs minister, he was meant to give a speech to the National Press Club outlining what Labor's immigration policy would be.

Here we are a month or so later, and that still hasn't happened because within the Labor Party there is dissension over what their immigration policy should actually look like.

And, uh, they actually, the, the Labor Party is actually trying to see if they can get, uh, on board with the opposition.

And so both the opposition and the government are, are sort of like running on the same page on a s- on a few aspects of, uh, immigration policy.

And as you mentioned, when it comes to the opposition, they're, they've talked a bit about, uh, trying to link the migration rate to housing starts and new housing, but that's about as far as it's gone.

But is this another example of, uh, doesn't really matter because, um, it, no matter what she says, her numbers hold up?

That doesn't help, does it?

Oh, absolutely not.

There's no doubt about that.

That doesn't help as well.

That doesn't help.

And that's obviously something that One Nation has decided to really latch on to, saying that one of the reasons for the housing crisis is that there's too many migrants coming in and there's nowhere for them to live and that they're also straining the housing supply for Australian citizens and Australians.

Obviously, that's been one of the points that One Nation's been making all along, which has obviously made headway in a lot of these by-elections it's contested, the one in Secret Harbour over the weekend and a few months ago, the one in Farah as well.

We keep saying, oh, One Nation, they're a three- or four-person band, but they are going to wheel out people of more substance and they've got plenty of time to do it.

I just wonder what might have brought you to town today.

Well, it's something called the Labor Conference.

It's the National Labor Conference.

They're held at every three years in a different state.

And this time it's the turn of Adelaide to hold this Labor Conference.

There's about 2,000 Labor members, rank and file, MPs, union delegates.

There's a whole bunch of people here in town.

And I read that and think, well, who's been in charge of the economy for the last five years?

They're in a real pickle in terms of how they counter One Nation because One Nation is now seen as the opposition even though they don't have the numbers in the parliament.

Yeah, look, that's right.

And I saw a little article earlier tonight, John, where apparently some Labor MPs are privately starting to get a little worried that One Nation could actually become the official opposition after the next election and really upend this two-party system.

And the general nature of the post was that that there's some Labor MPs that, you know, almost feel sorry now for the coalition, that they were, you know, considered to be the traditional rivals, the liberal nationals against Labor, that all of a sudden that they're looking at a new rival in One Nation.

And as you said, it's now the third poll, the third major poll that has One Nation ahead of both Labor and the coalition.

You've got the news poll today, Last week, you had the YouGov poll, which is done by Sky News, and you've also had the Redbridge poll, which was published in the Financial Review, all showing essentially the same thing, that One Nation has about 30% of the primary vote, Labor has anywhere between 27% and 30% of the primary vote, and then you've got the Coalition, which has 18% in today's news poll.

In the Redbridge poll last week, it was at around about 20%.

But, of course, she was at that Ben Robert Smith fundraiser yesterday, and he's public enemy number one for the Ben Robert Smith crowd because he gave evidence at the defamation case.