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Michael O'Rourke

Chief Market Strategist at JonesTrading Institutional Services, author of the daily market brief "The Closing Print."

Dec 31, 2025

7:53
So it is almost bizarre to see those two stocks trading at a premium, or maybe they're just trading at a premium because they're viewed as defensive trades.
8:00
Well, you know, I don't think it's specifically an AI bubble.
8:04
I think it's a bubble.
8:06
You know, the entire tape has a bubble nature to it, whether it's the digital, you know, the digital asset treasury companies where, you know, people are buying stocks for the company's business models to perpetually dilute the shareholders.
8:20
Or in the case of a Walmart, it's a great company.
8:23
It's executed great.
8:25
Premium valuation, yeah, it's a tough environment out there to find stocks that are attractively valued.
11:52
Michael, how has Warren Buffett influenced what you do?
35:26
How should we think about going into next year?
35:30
You know, I think, uh, as we s- we saw that GDP report, the economy is doing very well.
35:36
Obviously AI is driving a lot of spending, but we have asset prices that are, are very, very much inflated.
35:44
And, um, you know, that quote has to do with the top 20 market cap names in the S&P 500 are trading about 40 times, uh, tr- trailing earnings, and that's if you take out Tesla, and 28 times tr- uh, forward earnings.
35:59
So th- that, you know, those are historically high valuations, historically high multiples.
36:03
And it's funny, you're just talking about the economy.
36:05
I would say, you know, we talk about the K-shaped economy, uh, where the, you know, the rich seem to get richer and everyone else is left behind.
speaker_5HOST
39:40
So, if you think that this is overdone, is it not just an issue for the stock market? Is this also a huge issue for the US economy, the real economy?
15:55
Is that the way that people should be thinking about it?
15:59
I don't think that's the way people should be thinking about it.
16:02
But we've developed this pattern in the past 15 years or so is that when a leader comes about in the technology space, it seems to be a winner take all proposition.
16:13
And so investors are willing to pay extremely high multiples, especially in the early stages, because you're expecting the company to own the space in the long term and you're going to make it up as time passes.
16:27
But I think what the events of the past few weeks have shown, where Google came out of nowhere, out of left field with Gemini 3, all of a sudden it leapfrogged to open the AI to have the best performing LLM.
16:45
And then in parallel to that, they have their own TPUs that that's where they trained Gemini 3 on, and that's performed really well.
16:57
And of course, they're a lot cheaper than NVIDIA's GPUs.
17:48
Does that bring a little more rationality into this? Or do you think that there is still a long way down potentially to go?
13:43
What stands out to you as particularly unique, unusual, and maybe cause for good and bad signals right now?
13:52
Well, obviously, there's a lot of parallels between the internet bubble and AI.
13:58
Obviously, there are groundbreaking technologies that are going to change the way the world works.
14:03
There's no doubt about that.
14:05
But of course, foundational in creating a bubble is something that's a widely held belief that is factually believed to be correct and bullish and optimistic.
14:19
So that fuels it.
14:21
As far as the note the other night when I talked about that, it's when you start seeing things that are really out of the ordinary or atypical that you'd really be surprised to hear people say or do.
16:22
So Mike, what's the pets.com? What's the info space? What are those companies now?
4:31
Mike, what did you make of the bank earnings that we got and sort of what they're telling us about activity in the market and the economy?
4:39
Well, I mean, the banks have had a great run this year, a great run over the past 12 months.
4:44
I believe the KBW Bank Index is up about 24%.
4:48
So there's been a lot of optimism in the group.
4:52
Part of it is they started from really attractive valuations.
4:56
And then, of course, we're looking at a new regulatory structure here for them going forward, less capital restrictions and things like that.
5:05
So I think the numbers were pretty good, pretty much as expected.
7:19
So I guess, are we entering a renewed period of volatility to the trade headlines, or do you think this is going to be short-lived?
18:35
So the enthusiasm and the growth that we have been seeing in crypto, what does that sort of tell us about animal spirits cross-asset?
18:44
Well, it's interesting.
18:45
I mean, I believe in the Warren Buffett tenet that to be an investment, you have to be an income producing asset.
18:51
And obviously, these cryptocurrencies are not income producing assets.
18:55
So there's speculation that a lot of people have made fortunes speculating in recent years.
19:01
But I do think when you measure an asset class like this and how big it's become relative to the stock market, it can give you an idea of what the speculative juices flowing out in the markets are.
19:15
And what I'm seeing here is that at $4 trillion in assets, the collective cryptocurrency market cap is about 7% of that of the S&P 500.
20:42
What are then the top contenders to poke holes in what's been going on?

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